"I'm catastrophically unlucky in life“- a friend complained. “I step on the same rake all the time, find myself in the same situations, and always get the same result. I'm a loser! This is karma!" Well, and so on. She broke up with another guy, and he, like the previous ones, cheated on her with another. In principle, life “slips” repeating situations into everyone’s hands, as if laughing at us, developing events according to a certain scenario. You can, of course, consider it a curse, karma, or whatever, and continue to live. I wonder if it is possible to somehow fight this?
With mother's milk
The child grows and develops in a certain circle of people, in one’s own. Therefore, everything that he sees, hears and feels becomes his life program. After all, you must admit that you cannot know that white chocolate exists if you have tried and seen only black chocolate, and have not even heard anything about white. Therefore, it is quite natural that a little daughter, seeing her parents’ relationship, determines in advance how she is supposed to behave with men (like her mother), and what kind of men they are (like her father).
In advance programmed The scenario, against our will, manifests itself later in adult life. Well, imagine if mom always made scandals for dad on any occasion, what would their adult daughter do? Yes, exactly the same! The development of events in the daughter’s life is predictable: repeat the fate of her mother. And then we lament about karma! Instill in your children a positive attitude and a sense of harmony. Then they will like their fate.
A typical scenario
So we vaccinated Since childhood, we have had a clear understanding of “dark chocolate,” and we are confident that we know what to do in a given situation. In addition to upbringing, we also inherited character, and over time we acquired a whole bunch of habits. Character and habits, along with upbringing, determine the development of the scenario of our future life. How do we deal with similar situations? It's the same, because we're used to it. Therefore, we get the same results.
If you have a short temper character, then it’s easy to piss you off. And if there is some kind of habit that affects the personal space of other people (and it inevitably does), then you make your relationship with the person dependent on your habit. My friend has a habit of calling her boyfriend at the end of the working day to find out his further plans for the evening regarding her person. This is repeated daily. And with every guy she has a quarrel about this. Who can withstand such total control, and even just obsession?! And the habit of making scenes against the backdrop of a zealous character? Dangerous mix! It also happens the other way around.
Too modest young woman is captive to her shyness, and does not understand why all her dates end the same way - nothing. She just always behaves in her own style - constrained and strict, no matter whether she likes the guy or not. Blindly following our habits and tastes, we not only choose a style of behavior in similar situations, but we even like men of approximately the same type of appearance and with similar character traits. Of course, “they are all assholes”! We choose them ourselves!
Break the vicious circle
Esoteric psychologists They say that life sends us special messages so that we change, and until we learn them, the lessons will be repeated. In principle, life is not particularly diverse in events. All traditional events alternate in a chaotic order, and we continue to act as we are used to, or as our parents taught us. Repeating our own mistakes in a circle, we get the same results. To get a different result, you will have to abandon your usual behavior and attitudes. Let's try to do something unconventional.
First thing you need do, is to analyze all the significant events in your life, the result of which you are not satisfied with, and understand how we acted in them, how we reacted. And then develop the opposite strategy of action. For example, after analyzing constant quarrels with one person, I realized that the reason for this result was my habit of arguing and proving that I was right.
And since he ended up on rarity stubborn (just like me), then every new situation led us to a quarrel. I changed my strategy: I forced myself to agree with him on everything, even if, in my opinion, he was wrong. Internally I continued to argue, but externally I behaved completely differently. And, lo and behold! The quarrels have stopped, relationships have improved, and now, when such situations arise, I adhere to a new strategy of behavior.
Do it over yourself an effort, break your stereotypes, habits, behavior. Depart from the traditions accepted in your family. Slow down your usual reaction, do everything differently than usual, and “karma” will let you go. Are you a girl of strict rules, and when meeting guys, do you look down on them? Now take it and smile at him warmly and openly, allow yourself to flirt a little. Are you used to persistently attacking men, showing them your charms? Learn to be modest and shy. To master a new behavioral strategy, you may have to read a book or consult with an experienced person. Take action! What's the use of just lamenting?
We are becoming hostages your habits, your upbringing and character. Let's surprise life with new behavior, and then perhaps it will surprise us with new results.
Synopsis of the books “THE BOOK OF FATES” and “THE FATE OF RUSSIA. HISTORY OF THE FUTURE"
For many representatives of the human race, this question has never been a reality, for in their lives they are unconsciously guided by the motto expressed by the holy Apostle Matthew, “His wickedness is sufficient for the day” (Matthew 6:34).
For a few, the positive answer to this question was an attempt to find patterns in history and use them to predict the future. Attempts to predict the future have not stopped since ancient times. For example, the Old Testament prophets, the author of the Apocalypse, Nostradamus and many others. Maybe God has granted them the ability to see the future, but for mere mortals who do not have this skill, their prophecies are “dark as the path in the darkness beyond the grave” (I.A. Bunin). These are predictions without specific places and dates, these are predictions “in general.” Any modern interpreter can attribute these prophecies to any historical event, whether in the past, present or future.
We are interested in the history of mankind. To truly know the future of humanity, it is necessary to identify the patterns of its historical development. Some thinkers, for example, A.I. Herzen, categorically stated that history does not repeat itself. And since there is no repeatability of historical events, then there is no comprehension of history, and the future depends on the actions in the present of the creator of history - man. Others say that at the time of creation, God had already created everything - the past, the present, and the future, and since man is not given the ability to know the works of God, then a weak person cannot know history, God’s creation, and he cannot create the future. , since the future is already predetermined. Still others, for example O. Spengler, A. J. Toynbee, L.N. Gumilev, stated that patterns exist and tried to find the laws of history.
We also declare that history repeats itself, and we prove this in the history of the State.
Our world and everything in it has its beginning and its end, its birth and its death. The Universe, the Sun, the Earth, and Humanity have their own cycle, but the duration of the cycle for each phenomenon is different. It is precisely this difference, as well as the interconnection and interdependence of the Fates, that gives rise to the very dissimilarity of repeating events. This work examines the histories of some states that are carriers of Fates. The rest of the countries are just a background against which the fateful countries implement the will of their Destinies. The duration of the cycle for these Fates is the same - 370 years, but the time of birth is different. The bearer of Destiny is the state, the territory on which it is located, the people, their faith and culture. L.N. Gumilev writes: “At the population level, the actions of an ethnos are programmed by the environment, culture and genetic memory. On a personal level, they are free.” (Gumilev L.N. “Ancient Rus' and the Great Steppe”, p. 421). The actions of an ethnos aimed at creating a state are guided by Fate. At the dawn of mankind, the influence of the Fates on each other was insignificant, but the events of our era show their increasing and pervasive influence and interconnection. The end-beginning of any period is the death of God and his resurrection. This is the time of the death of states and their revival. The countries and peoples inhabiting them are pawns that the player, Fate, sacrifices or queens at her own discretion to achieve goals known only to her. Until the period determined by Fate expires, the state, which is the bearer of Fate, will not disappear. When Fate wants to kill a state, it gives it insignificant rulers, greedy for power, overwhelmed by ambition, greed and self-interest. In our works we consider the Fates of the World (the authors did not consider the history of India and Southeast Asia, since their history is under the authority of the Fates and the Fate of Africa considered).
FATE OF THE WORLD
(the year the cycle began is indicated)
Roman Fate
…1383-1013-643-273 - 97-467-837-1207-1577-1947-2317…
Altai Destiny
…1778-1408-1038-668-298 - 72-442-812-1182-1552-1922-2292…
German Destiny
…1839-1469-1099-729-359 - 11-381-751-1121-1491-1861-2231…
Iranian Destiny
…1810-1440-1070-700-330 - 40-410-780-1150-1520-1890-2260…
Arabian Destiny
1590-1220-850-480-110 - 260-630-1000-1370-1740-2110…
Balkan Destiny
…1879-1509-1139-769-399-29 - 341-711-1081-1451-1821-2191…
Asia Minor Destiny
…1925-1555-1185-815-445-75 - 295-665-1035-1405-1775-2145…
Young Chinese Destiny
…1686-1316-946-576-206 - 164-534-904-1274-1644-2014…
Old Chinese Fate
…1841-1471-1101-731-361 - 9-379-749-1119-1489-1859-2229…
Phoenician Destiny
…1996-1626-1256-886-516-146 - 224-594-964-1334-1704-2074…
The fate of Russia
…1708-1338-968-598-228 - 142-512-882-1252-1622-1992-2362…
Let's take the “Altai Fate” from the “BOOK OF FATES,” which examines the Fates and their impact on the peoples and states subject to them. We will consider it from the year 442, although it is much older.
BOOK OF FATES
Altai Destiny.
442
At the beginning of the 3rd century AD. e. China was negatively affected by the end of the Old Chinese Destiny cycle. The Western Jin Empire was rocked by internecine wars. Lacking the strength to repel the nomadic tribes attacking from Manchuria, Mongolia and Tibet, the empire lost its northern territories up to the Yangtze River. On the occupied lands, the nomads created their own states, fighting among themselves for hegemony in Northern China. The she-wolf is indifferent to which of her cubs drinks the milk. The strong push away the weak, dooming them to death. Death to the weak is the law. So is Fate, she doesn’t care who seizes power, she always has several contenders to carry out her will. The strongest and most worthy turned out to be one of the Mongol-speaking Xianbi tribes - the Toba tribe. The Tabgachi overcame the consequences of defeat from the kingdom of Early Qin in 376 and managed to create their own state in 386 - the kingdom of Northern Wei (386-535, from 395 - an empire). In 439, the Northern Wei Empire conquered the last independent kingdom of Northern Liang (397-439). The entire North of China came under the rule of the Northern Wei Empire. A small group of residents of the Western Liang kingdom, led by Prince Ashina, were forced to emigrate to the Rourans. “The Turkuts arose like this: in 439, a small detachment of Prince Ashin fled from Northwestern China from the victorious and ruthless Tabgaches. The composition of this detachment was varied, but the predominant ethnic group were the Xianbeans, that is, the ancient Mongols. Having settled on the slopes of Altai and Khingan and mixed with the aborigines, the Turkuts made their narrow specialty smelting iron and making weapons.” (Gumilyov L.N. “Ancient Rus' and the Great Steppe”, p. 30).
While the Old Chinese Fate favored the Tabgachas, the Turkuts remained under the rule of the Rourans. In 534 the End-Beginning of the cycle of the Young Chinese Destiny began. The influence of the Old Chinese Fate has disappeared. As a result of the turmoil, the Northern Wei Empire broke up in 534 into two parts at war with each other. The Turkic people took advantage of this war, they destroyed the Rourans who had sheltered them a hundred years ago and created the Turkic Khaganate.
In 601, the Turkic Khaganate split into two independent Khaganates - Eastern and Western. In 630, the Eastern Turks were conquered by the Chinese Tang Empire; in 658, the same fate befell the Western Turks.
812
An outstanding statesman and political figure of Persia, Mazdak (?-529), who lived in the 5th century, was the leader of “the communist movement, which was based on the religious-dualistic teaching of Zaradushta (III century), which was a reform of the teachings of the Manichaeans” (Small Soviet Encyclopedia. - M., 1928-1932, vol. IV, p. 803), in 491 proclaimed the slogan “Rob the loot!” Some of the Jews living in Persia, who became rich thanks to the support of the rulers, were forced to flee the country to the Roman Empire. Some Jews supported Mazdak and took an active part in this “communist” movement. In 529, a counter-revolutionary coup took place, and this time the Mazdakite Jews, who found shelter with the Khazars living between the Sulak and Terek rivers, were forced to flee the country.
The Jews who settled among the Khazars were joined by fellow tribesmen from the Roman Empire. “The Jews who found salvation in Byzantium should have helped the Byzantines. But they helped in a rather strange way. Making secret agreements with the Arabs, the Jews opened the gates of the cities at night and let in the Arab soldiers. They slaughtered the men and sold the women and children into slavery. The Jews, buying up slaves cheaply, resold them at a considerable profit for themselves. The Greeks could not like this. But, deciding not to make new enemies for themselves, they limited themselves to inviting the Jews to leave. Thus, a second group of Jews appeared on the lands of the Khazars - the Byzantine one" (Gumilev L.N. From Rus' to Russia: Essays on Ethnic History. - M., 2000, p. 34). Toynbee is only partially right when he says that emigrants, including Jews, having stood the test of a human environment alien to them, are completely satisfied with reaping the harvest from a field not cultivated by them. (Toynbee A.J. Comprehension of History: Collection. / Translated from English - M., 2001, p. 181). In addition to the harvest, they also need the blood of the plowman.
In 567, the Khazars living in the Caspian region became part of the Turkic Kaganate. In 650, one of the representatives of the ruling Ashina dynasty fled to the Khazars from the Khaganate, torn by civil strife, to save his life. Having stood at the head of the Khazars, he, with their support, separated the Khazars from the Turkic Khaganate and created a new Khaganate - the Khazar Khaganate. The Chinese, when conquering the Turks of the Western Turkic Khaganate, were unable to conquer them due to the remoteness of the Khazars.
The Jews became related to the ruling Turkic dynasty and turned it into a Jewish one. In 808, “in the Khazar Kaganate, a certain influential Jew Obadiah took power into his own hands, turning the khan from the Ashina dynasty (on his father’s side) into a puppet and making rabbinic Judaism the state religion of Khazaria (Gumilev L.N. Discovery of Khazaria, p. 283).
“The legitimate khan from the Ashin clan became a Jew, that is, he accepted the faith of his mother and was accepted into the community. All government positions were distributed among the Jews, and Obadiah himself took the title "peh" (bek), translated into Arabic as "malik", i.e. king. This means that he headed the government under the nominal khan (khagan), who from that time was in custody and released to the people once a year” (ibid., p. 284).
“The coup, the victim of which was the patrimonial aristocracy of all ethnic groups that were part of the Khazar Kaganate and coexisted with the Turkic dynasty, caused a civil war, where the Magyars took the side of the rebels, and the Pechenegs hired for money took the side of the Jews. This war was merciless, since, according to the Babylonian Talmud, “a non-Jew who does evil to a Jew inflicts it on the Lord himself and, thus committing lese majeste, deserves death” (from the treatise “Sanhedrin”, unspecified page and column).
For the early Middle Ages, the total won was an unusual innovation. It was supposed, having broken the enemy's resistance, to impose taxes and duties on the defeated, often military service in auxiliary units. But the total extermination of all people who were on the other side of the front was an echo of ancient times. For example, during the conquest of Canaan by Joshua, it was forbidden to take women and children captive and thereby leave them alive. It was even prescribed to kill domestic animals belonging to the enemy. Obadiah revived a forgotten antiquity.
After this war, the beginning and end of which cannot be precisely dated, Khazaria changed its appearance. From systemic integrity it turned into an unnatural combination of an amorphous mass of subjects with a ruling class, alien by blood and religion (ibid., pp. 285-286).
This dynasty began to wage wars of conquest against its neighbors. In particular, the Slavic tribes of the Polans, Vyatichi, Northerners and Radimichi became tributaries of Khazaria in the 8th century. In 808, the Jewish community carried out a Jewish revolution in the Khazar Kaganate and usurped power, plunging their host country into the abyss of civil war. The Jews waged an all-out war against the Khazar people. The persecution of the Orthodox began. The Orthodox bishopric was liquidated. Christians fled the country. In general, the same thing happened that happened three cycles later of the Altai Destiny in Russia (808+370x3=1918). By suppressing the resistance of the Khazar people, the Jews intensified the colonial oppression of their neighbors. “...Slavic lands in the 9th-10th centuries. became a source of slaves for Jews, like Africa in the 17th-19th centuries.” (Gumilev L.N. Ancient Rus' and the Great Steppe. - M., 2002, p. 200).
1182
In 1182, some of the Mongols, obeying the will of their Fate, proclaimed Temujin Khan with the title of Genghis (L.N. Gumilyov “In Search of a Fictitious Kingdom,” p. 137). Thus begins the creation of a great and formidable power. Thus begins a centuries-long period of sorrows and misfortunes for the Mongols, which almost led them to complete disappearance from the face of the earth. The darkness of the Mongol-Tatars is still destroying countries and peoples, and the poison of the vanquished is already corrupting the victors.
The power of Genghis Khan, even before the death of its creator, according to his will, was divided into uluses between his four sons. The uluses are still part of a single, but already divided empire, the unity disappears, the heirs of Genghis Khan see each other as sworn enemies and the blood of the “conquerors of the universe” begins to shed. The descendants of Genghis Khan's third son and his successor Ogedei were completely exterminated by the Hulaguids. The Chagatai ulus - allocated by Genghis Khan himself, as well as the state of the Hulaguids and the Ulus of the Great Khan or the Yuan state, founded by the siblings of Hulagu and Kublai, did not survive the turn of 1370 (the year of the beginning of the cycle of Arabian Destiny), and only fragments of the Golden Horde managed to achieve it with great difficulty overcome and go through the full cycle. Internal unrest and the invasion of Tamerlane dealt a crushing blow to the Golden Horde, from which it could not recover. In the 15th century, numerous khanates and hordes arose on its ruins, which were later included in the Russian Empire, which by force took the right to the legacy of Genghis Khan.
1552
At the beginning of the 16th century, Mongolia consisted of two large parts: western and eastern, separated by the Khangai Mountains. Each part consisted of smaller properties. One of the rulers, Dayan Khan (Khan in 1479-1543), united almost all of Mongolia under his rule. Before his death, Dayan Khan divided the country into eleven fiefs according to the number of sons. Mongolia again split into Eastern and Western Mongolia; in addition, Eastern Mongolia, divided by the Gobi Desert, split into Northern and Southern Mongolia. The Mongols had their say. Altai Destiny abandoned the Mongols.
1922
In 1921, units of the Red Army, which entered the territory of Mongolia at the request of the Mongolian Provisional Government formed as a result of the revolution, together with the Mongolian army expelled the White Guards. On July 11, 1921, the independence of Mongolia was declared in liberated Urga. The Bogdo Gegen became the head of the state. After his death (1924), Mongolia was proclaimed a People's Republic.
Now let’s take “Altai Fate” from the book “The Fate of Russia. History of the Future", which examines the influence of this Fate on the "Fate of Russia".
THE DESTINY OF RUSSIA. HISTORY OF THE FUTURE
Altai Destiny
1552
The closer the end of the cycle approached, the more the Kazan Khanate was influenced by its neighbors. Kazan was the key to Jochi's legacy. It became the arena of struggle between Crimea and Moscow.
Attempts by fragments of the Golden Horde to unite and resist the increasing influence of Moscow were unsuccessful. Russia was able to reverse the situation and snatch the banner of the Altai Destiny from the hands of its enemies and begin the conquest of its conquerors, although the negativity of the end of the cycle influenced not only the Tatar khanates. Moscow had to experience it for itself.
The year 1552 marked the beginning of the process of unifying all the lands of the Altai Destiny under the leadership of Russia, which successfully completed the task. By 1922, all the lands of this Destiny became subject to Moscow.
1922
On October 25, 1922, with the liberation of Vladivostok, the civil war and intervention ended. The power of the Bolsheviks completely crushed the great country. On December 27, 1922, an agreement was signed between the RSFSR, Ukraine, Belarus and the Transcaucasian Federation on the formation of the USSR. On December 30, the Kurultai of plenipotentiary representatives of these countries approved the declaration and agreement on the formation of the Union of Kurultai Socialist Uluses.
The fate of RUSSIA
882
In the 9th century, two centers of unification of East Slavic tribes emerged - Kyiv, the main city of the Polyans, and Ladoga, the main city of the Slovenes (Ilmen).
The North Russian tribe of Slovenes (Ilmen) was ruled by their prince Gostomysl. After his death, the tribe became dependent on the Varangians and became their tributary. In 862, the Slovenes refused to pay tribute. In the struggle for power, they began to experience unrest and strife. Tired of all this, the Slovenes invited the leader of the Baltic Slavs, Rurik the Slav, and his brothers Sineus and Truvor to reign. The brothers were the grandchildren of the Slovenian prince Gostomysl, their mother was Umila Gostomyslovna, their father was Godlav Bodrichsky. The elder brother Rurik (born c. 830 - died in 879) settled in Ladoga, the middle brother Sineus - on Beloozero, the youngest, Truvor - in Izborsk.
In 864, when his younger brothers died, Rurik moved to Novgorod. He appointed his governors to the cities of Polotsk, Rostov, Beloozero and others.
Before his death, Rurik handed over the reign not to his young son, but to his relative Oleg. In 882, Oleg (Prince of Novgorod in 879-882, Prince of Kiev in 882-912) set out on a campaign with a squad. He occupied Smolensk and Lyubech, and installed his governors there. In Kyiv, the main city of the Polyans, princes Askold and Dir ruled. Having insidiously seized the rulers of Kyiv, Oleg killed them and sat down to reign there himself, making Kyiv the capital of his possessions (“the mother of Russian cities”). Tributes were established to the Slavs and Mary. In 883 Oleg conquered the Drevlyans. Then the northerners (884) and Radimichi (885), who had previously paid tribute to the Khazars, were conquered.
In 882, a period of Russian history known as “Kievan Rus” began.
In 1206, the inhabitants of Galich called Vladimir, Roman and Svyatoslav Igorevich to reign. The brothers were the grandchildren of the Galician prince Yaroslav Vladimirovich Osmomysl, their mother was Efrosinya Yaroslavna, and their father was Igor Svyatoslavich (Prince of Novgorod-Seversky in 1180-1198, Prince of Chernigov in 1198-1202), the hero of “The Tale of Igor’s Campaign” .
Looking at the events of a thousand years ago through the prism of modern reality, I just want to say: “In 882, Oleg Varangsky and the Novgorod lads decided to attack the Kyiv boys. He took Smolensk and Lyubech, and placed his watchers there. The Kyiv troops were led by Askold and Dir. Oleg hit the arrow on which the Kyiv leaders were killed.”
1252
In the first years of the Mongol-Tatar yoke, when most of the country's cities were burned, the population was killed and driven into slavery, the survivors were subject to exorbitant tribute, when the question of the existence of Rus' itself and its people was raised, two rulers were revealed in it and for it - Daniil Galitsky and Alexander Nevsky. The country had the opportunity to be reborn in a new form, but what path the revival would take depended on the will of these people. New Rus' was supposed to be reborn in the Galician-Volyn principality, but it was reborn in the Vladimir-Suzdal land.
The main role in choosing the path was played by the relationship between Rus' and Catholic Europe and the Horde. The wrong choice made by Daniil of Galicia and his descendants led the Kingdom of Galicia to the fall under the blows of Western invaders and the conquest of Southern Rus' and the people for long and difficult centuries of slavery and captivity.
The policy of Alexander Nevsky and his heirs, who saw the main danger in the desire of the Catholic West to seize the “country of cities” and force the population to renounce Orthodoxy and accept Catholic dogmas, helped Rus' to overcome everything, having overcome everything, to resist and be reborn.
Alexander Nevsky continued the policies of his great-great-grandfather Vladimir Monomakh. “In fact, in the XII-XIII centuries. The Polovtsian land (Dasht-i-Kypchak) and Kievan Rus constituted one polycentric state" (16. Gumilyov L.N. Ancient Rus' and the Great Steppe. - M., 2002.16, pp. 303-304). The Polovtsians were replaced by the Mongol-Tatars. The burden of choosing Alexander Nevsky was much heavier than the burden of choosing Monomakh. He has a strong state, while Alexander Nevsky has a fragmented, bloodless and depopulated country.
1622
The Troubles ended after the election of sixteen-year-old Mikhail Romanov as Tsar.
“GOD SHORTENES THE TIME OF TROUBLES FOR THE PEOPLE HE CHOSES” (Mark 13:20).
In 1622, the last prominent participants in the Time of Troubles passed away - Fyodor Ivanovich Mstislavsky, who died three times in 1598, 1606 and 1610. refused to be nominated to the Russian throne, and Ksenia Borisovna Godunova. After their death, a new cycle begins.
1992
An ill-conceived restructuring of the economy and the state apparatus led to the weakening of the central government and the collapse of the country. An unsuccessful attempt to stop the collapse was made by the Eight Boyars of the State Emergency Committee. But whatever happens, it cannot be avoided. It is impossible to cancel the death of God, he must ascend to the cross, but reducing or increasing his suffering depends on the will of man. If a person is a champion of Evil, then he increases suffering and for this he must be punished.
The ruling circles of the union republics, headed by Yeltsin, striving for even greater power, destroyed the USSR. On December 8, 1991, in a deep Belarusian forest, in Belovezhskaya Pushcha, a few kilometers from the Soviet-Polish border, the leaders of three republics (RSFSR, Ukrainian SSR and BSSR) gathered - B. N. Yeltsin, L. M. Kravchuk and S. S. Shushkevich and signed the Agreement on the creation of the CIS, prepared in deep secrecy from their peoples. On December 21, the leaders of eight more republics joined this Agreement.
Deputies of the Parliament of Ukraine and the Supreme Councils of Belarus and Russia ratified the documents on December 10, 11 and 12, respectively. Soon, the highest authorities of almost all the republics that signed the Union Treaty in 1922 denounced it.
On the evening of December 25, speaking on television, M. Gorbachev stated the collapse of the USSR and resigned as president of the USSR. The Russian flag was raised over the Grand Kremlin Palace instead of the state flag of the Soviet Union. The next day, the Council of Republics of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR held its last meeting and adopted a Declaration in which it announced the end of the existence of the USSR. The Soviet Union, having existed for exactly 69 years, went into oblivion. The bomb planted under the building of the USSR statehood by V.I. Lenin exploded and smashed it to smithereens.
Russia is gone, Russia is out
And it doesn't ring bells.
Not a word or breath of her,
Nobody guards sadness.
Russia silences the chatter
And he lies upside down.
And we leave with her forever,
Without realizing your guilt.
And in the Novgorod region there are Uzbeks
They are already uprooting virgin soil.
M. Dudin
As history shows, only a mono-ethnic state can overcome the difficult times of the End-Beginning of the cycle. The state, which unites numerous tribes, nationalities and peoples, does not overcome this boundary and disappears forever into the abyss of oblivion. Russia could overcome troubled times only because it was a country of one Russian people. From the beginning of the 19th century, the process of transforming Russia into a multinational state began, but until the end of the 20th century, the Russian people maintained their dominant position. The current policy of immigration of Russia (precisely Russia, not the Russian Federation), its occupation by foreigners and aliens, while simultaneously depopulating the Russian people, is leading Russia to the slaughter. 2361 - this will be the last year of Russia’s existence, if you don’t...
In the photo in the center, Nikolai Kofyrin is the commander of the people's militia detachment (photo from the home archive)
The German philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel said: “History repeats itself twice. The first time in the form of a tragedy, the second - in the form of a farce.”
In connection with the centenary of the 1917 revolution, people are increasingly asking whether the upheavals will happen again. On December 28, 2016, at the St. Petersburg book club “Word Order,” an independent and authoritative St. Petersburg economist, professor at the European University in St. Petersburg, Dmitry Yakovlevich Travin, gave a lecture “Russia-1917 and Russia-2017.” I asked the listeners whether the revolution would happen again in Russia?
In 1960, a filmstrip was released about what the USSR would be like in 2017. Many technological advances were predicted correctly. But no one foresaw the most important thing - the collapse of the USSR state. Nobody except Nostradamus...
At school we studied the February bourgeois revolution of 1917 only as a prehistory of the Great October Socialist Revolution. Now it’s the other way around: the February events in Petrograd are called a revolution, and the October armed uprising is considered a coup.
The famous literary critic Marietta Chudakova believes: “It seems to me that people do not realize what year awaits us - the centenary of October. ... October was catastrophic for Russia, because it led it off the historical path into a historical stall for more than seventy years - or into a historical dead end - whichever word you prefer.”
On December 30, 2016, the Kommersant newspaper published the article “There will be no year seventeen.” “Russia intends to live it out as quickly as possible.” “The government, business and society would prefer to simply skip next year. All visible threats of serious changes in 2016 were removed in advance, all big plans were postponed to 2018. It is precisely this atmosphere of the coming 2017 that is best suited for everything that no one expected.”
On the eve of the new year, the newspaper “Arguments and Facts” published an article “Does the revolution have no end?” (No. 51 dated December 21, 2016). As it turns out, the slogans of a hundred years ago also influence the current world order.
Alexander Chubaryan, scientific director of the Institute of General History of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes: “For example, in the West they are well aware that the theory and practice of the social state are a product of the Russian revolution. And they quite logically declare that without this there would be neither modern Sweden, nor modern Germany, nor modern France. And the European Union as such, since it is based on left-wing, socialist principles. Socially, Russia was then ahead of the whole world by an entire era, setting a new, hitherto unprecedented standard of social structure.”
Many doubt: will memories of the events of a hundred years ago awaken protest activity in Russia?
Politicians say: “The main thing is that protest sentiments are not used by the “fifth column” to destroy the country according to the Kyiv scenario.”
Is a remake of the revolution possible in 2017?
“A revolution cannot be ruled out, which can take several forms,” says historian and left-wing public figure Alexander Shubin. “On the one hand, there may be a pseudo-revolution of liberals, but Bolotnaya turned out to be a good vaccine for this. On the other hand, there is a revolution of nationalists, which is extremely destructive for Russia and is dangerous for all humanity. Thirdly, there is a social revolution, which can also become a form of social reversal, but a very destructive one. It is very important in any form of social and re-modernization reversal to defend its non-violent, humanistic, democratic forms."
Independent politician Gennady Gudkov believes:
“I don’t think that a revolution is possible already in 2017: the authorities definitely have enough safety margin for this year. But by the end of it, the money may run out, and the country will move towards social upheaval..."
But will anyone go to storm the Kremlin in the year of the centenary of October?
General Secretary of the Communists of Russia party Maxim Suraikin believes:
“Theoretically, against the backdrop of a deep socio-economic crisis and increasing protest sentiments, a socialist revolution in 2017 is possible.”
Vice President of the Center for Political Research Alexey Makarkin is sure of the opposite:
“Today, in the understanding of the overwhelming majority of all segments of the population and political movements, revolution is bad. Lenin's heir Zyuganov says Russia has reached its limit on revolutions. Liberals scare the authorities with revolution and give them advice on how to avoid it.”
Let's see if what Olga Slavnikova wrote in the novel “2017” will come true.
On the eve of the New Year, I saw a magazine on the newsstands, on the cover of which was the unexpected question “What will happen to us?” with a photo of Vladimir Putin “Does he really want to end his career in order to fulfill his big dream?”
“Strange,” I thought. “Who is spreading such rumors and why?”
For the holiday I was given a calendar “All year with Vladimir Putin.” Although for some reason it seems that with Vladimir Putin we will spend not only the 2017 “year of ecology” - after all, environmental problems will always be relevant!
The Bulgarian fortuneteller Vanga is said to have foreseen that Russia will become the savior of the world in 2017. According to Vanga, Russia will save the world while other countries tear each other to pieces. In 2017, there will be terrible geopolitical and social changes that could lead to World War III. Against this background, the Slavs will unite under the wing of Russia, which will become the guarantor of peace and justice for all humanity.
The famous psychic Wolf Messing, before undergoing an operation that he did not survive, allegedly predicted what awaits Russia a hundred years after the revolution - that is, in 2017. According to the prediction, the world leaders will be Russia, the USA and China. They can both start a war and resolve world conflicts. Specifically for Russia, he predicted that it would have a great influence on world history, despite attempts by other countries to hinder its development. The Russian economy will grow due to rising oil prices. There will, however, also be natural disasters: in October, Siberia will face a flood.
You may not believe this, but it will be possible to check.
On January 12-13, 2017, the next meeting of experts will take place within the framework of the Gaidar Forum. It will be visited by German Gref and Anatoly Chubais. Experts will take part in the discussion “Technological shifts and economic dynamics: what is really happening?”
In fact, Russia is still sitting on the “oil needle” (gas and oil are the main budget fillers). In 2016, budget revenues from oil and gas fell by 18%.
2017 is the last year when holes in the budget can be plugged from reserves. The reserve fund is coming to an end: over the last two years, reserves have decreased from 7 to 1.9 trillion rubles.
According to the head of the Accounts Chamber, Tatyana Golikova, in 2017 Russia will completely exhaust the Reserve Fund, and the government will switch to using funds from the National Welfare Fund.
Although the price of oil is rising, the ruble is rising against the euro and the dollar, but prices in stores are also rising. There are no plans to index pensions and salaries in accordance with inflation; the funded part of pensions has been frozen. The introduction of a “tax on parasitism” is being discussed (20 thousand per year for each parasite).
Despite public protests, signature collections and other actions, prices for transport in St. Petersburg have increased (in the metro from 33 to 45 rubles).
Everyone will have to “tighten their belts,” says economist Alexey Vyazovsky.
The American magazine The Economist is confident that “Russia’s economic problems are grave.” Barack Obama believes that “Russia’s economy is “torn to shreds.”
In 2017, prices for cigarettes, food and confectionery products will increase (especially chocolate, cakes and pastries will rise in price).
Prices for fish and meat will increase by 10 percent.
They promise an increase in gasoline prices.
Prices for medicines will also increase by 5-7%, since almost all raw materials are imported.
Prices for alcohol will also increase.
As a sociologist, I sometimes look at the results of public opinion polls. On December 10-11, 2016, a population survey was conducted in 130 settlements with a total sample size of 1,600 people. According to a survey by the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM), the main problems in Russia are related to low wages (noted by 18% of Russians), the economic situation (18%) and healthcare (17%).
The unpopular war in Syria continues with no end in sight. By December 20, 2016, the Russian Aerospace Forces had carried out over 30 thousand sorties, hitting over 62 thousand objects in Syria. Palmyra, liberated and cleared with such difficulty, again found itself in the hands of militants.
Every year I listen to Dmitry Travin’s lectures and am amazed at the accuracy of his assessments.
They offer a good slogan: “Let's stop starting...”
I am against revolutions. Any revolution gives rise to unrest, terror and repression. Nobody wants a revolution except desperate troublemakers who want to climb to power over other people's corpses. But if revolutions do happen, then they are inevitable. And the authorities are primarily to blame for this, since popular indignation is a consequence of the mistakes of the ruling regime.
Is revolution a result of external forces or a consequence of internal causes? How to prevent a repeat of the revolution? – I, too, as a sociologist, investigated this issue.
On the eve of the February Revolution, the Bolsheviks had a little more than 1 thousand rubles in the cash register. Financial assistance came from American bankers, but it reached the Bolsheviks only in the fall of 1917, because it was initially received by Trotsky, who was not a Bolshevik at that time and was the head of his group.
Giving money for the revolution was considered good form among the intelligentsia. Rich merchants also gave. Nobody thought about the consequences. The Germans fighting against Russia also transferred money for the coup, including through Alexander Gelfand (nickname Parvus). Back in 1915, he offered the Germans to overthrow the Tsar and ruin Russia for money. True, the original documents confirming that the Bolsheviks received money from the German General Staff are still unknown.
According to historian Andrei Zubov, a coup in Russia was supposed to take place in 1916.
Lenin’s public statement in January 1917 in Switzerland is known that he did not expect to live to see the revolution, but that young people would see it.
At school I was an excellent student and I still remember three main signs of a revolutionary situation:
1\ when the upper classes cannot govern in a new way, and the lower classes do not want to live in the old way;
2\ worsening than usual the needs and misfortunes of the working class;
3\ growth of revolutionary activity of the masses.
You read the history of events that happened a hundred years ago, and it becomes scary that everything is repeating itself.
My grandmother was born in 1891 and lived in St. Petersburg during three revolutions.
By the end of 1916, prices had tripled since the start of the war, outpacing the growth in household incomes. At the Obukhov plant, the lowest monthly salary was 160 rubles, all other workers received from 225 to 400 rubles. per month. At the same time, a pound of black bread cost 5 kopecks, beef - 40 kopecks, butter - 50 kopecks; and all these products were on sale.
At the end of January 1917, the Working Group began to prepare an anti-government demonstration on the opening day of the new session of the State Duma; The appeal issued to her demanded the “decisive elimination of the autocratic regime.”
In February 1917, the main demand of the State Duma was the introduction in Russia of a “responsible ministry” - a government appointed by the Duma and responsible to the Duma.
On February 20, 1917, General of the Tsar's security department Spiridovich A.I. described the situation in Petrograd this way: “Everyone is waiting for some kind of coup. Who will do it, where, how, when - no one knows anything. And everyone is talking and everyone is waiting.”
The revolution, as always, happened unexpectedly. But the reason for the revolution is not that some general did not carry out the order and violated the oath. The question is why did he violate?! There is never just one reason, there are always many reasons. It is important to understand how objective reasons are linked to people’s subjective aspirations.
The generals who organized the conspiracy against the tsar only wanted to replace one autocrat with another: Nicholas II - Mikhail Romanov. Although there were those who proposed a constitutional monarchy and even a republic.
The chief of staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, General Alekseev, began to convince the tsar of the need to introduce a “responsible ministry” (constitutional monarchy) in the country; in 2220 he even sent a corresponding draft manifesto to Nicholas II. At one o'clock in the morning the king agreed to the establishment of a "responsible ministry." But it was already too late!
There is still debate about the causes of the February Revolution. The minister of the first composition of the Provisional Government, P. N. Milyukov, recognized that the main reasons for the February Revolution were not at all economic, but lay in the plane of politics and culture. “History will curse the leaders, the so-called proletarians, but it will also curse us, who caused the storm.”
“The February uprising is called spontaneous...,” wrote Leon Trotsky, “in February, no one outlined the path of a coup in advance... no one from above called for an uprising. The indignation that had accumulated over the years broke out largely unexpectedly for the masses themselves.”
My grandfather, Nikolai Kofirin, led a detachment of revolutionary workers and soldiers.
Was the February Revolution inevitable?
Against the backdrop of an increase in the number of millionaires, working people became poor; people did not want to live in the old way and demanded changes; the political activity of the masses grew; The fundamental issue of land was not resolved, the ruling elite was losing the remnants of legitimacy.
Every revolution is a desperate attempt to resolve painful issues of social life. And those who do not feel these problems and do not try to eliminate them (for example, the acute stratification of property in society) will inevitably find themselves buried under the destructive tornado of the revolution.
A revolution is a manifestation of the need to restore violated justice, that is, balance in society. And that’s why it’s not a matter of lack of bread, but a sense of justice, for the sake of which people are ready to endure the lack of bread.
The blatant injustice that reigns in society is a time bomb. There is a contradiction between social justice and economic efficiency. Current capitalism may not be fair, but it is economically efficient.
Can a society be fair and at the same time economically efficient?
I am convinced: the more fair a society is, the more economically efficient it is!
But we are apparently doomed to oscillate between the thirst for justice and the thirst for abundance.
Most rich people do not want to share, believing that since they earned their wealth through hard work, then let others work too.
This would probably be fair if it did not concern huge fortunes passed on to inheritance that were not personally earned.
As you know, history teaches no one. Because people learn not from history, but first of all from themselves. There is no less violence and wars, the earth is not becoming more beautiful, and the lives of millions of people per capita are not getting better.
Russia is strong not by a strong-willed king, but by the unity of the entire people. This is the Russian idea: conciliarity as the spiritual unity of people; when the self-sacrifice of the individual serves the salvation of the entire people, when all problems can be solved together, when the spiritual unity of everyone is placed above the selfish material interests of everyone.
But when the preservation of personal power becomes more important than the interests of the people and the state, when loyalty to power becomes more important than professionalism, then revolutions happen.
“Revolutions and wars also do not change anything essentially, but only create anxiety that is often unnecessary for everyone. The laws of existence cannot be changed by any good wishes. Some rulers replace others, trying to transform something, as they say, “for the better,” but sooner or later everything returns to normal.”
(from my novel “Stranger Strange Incomprehensible Extraordinary Stranger” on the New Russian Literature website
So what did you want to say with your post? - they will ask me.
Everything I want to tell people comes down to three main ideas:
1\ The goal of life is to learn to love, to love no matter what
2\ Meaning is everywhere
3\ Love to create is a necessity.
ALL IS LOVE
Happy New Seventeenth Year!
In your opinion, WILL THE REVOLUTION HAPPEN AGAIN?
The Russian economy is slowing down, and apparently this is a systemic crisis. As Hegel aptly put it, “history repeats itself until people learn the lessons they should learn from history.” Is history repeating itself? – asks the famous English historian Arnold Toynbee. It is repeated, he says, but not as a sentence, everything depends on the meaningful actions of the ruling layer. Civilizations face the challenges of history - and either overcome them or fall apart. The same phenomena are observed in economic history. To understand what is happening now, we need to significantly expand our time horizon - sometimes even beyond the boundaries of our history.On its thousand-year path, Russia has repeatedly faced various cardinal challenges, but each time it has been revived again by God's providence. Let us remember the Mongol yoke. During this most difficult test, Russia strengthened its state, army, church, and faith, which allowed it to subsequently overthrow the conquerors. Then there was a time of troubles, aggression from Poland, and again the path repeated itself - spiritual, civil and state revival from a point from which return was a miracle.
The most important motive of our history is the conflict with the West, which emerged from the time of A. Nevsky and the periodic lag of the country, followed by catching up modernization. Military and technical backwardness in the 17th century cost us a significant part of the territory conquered by the Swedes. But then Peter I clenches the state into a fist - and Russia becomes from a backward country one of the strongest states in Europe, we are returning what was lost. Catherine II continues Peter's success after a short break, but then the country gradually lags behind again. Although we had enough strength to repel Napoleon’s attack, by the Crimean War the country’s military and economic backwardness became absolutely clear. The result is a loss. And here again the Great Reforms of Alexander II, however, their result from an economic point of view was contradictory, as now, having laid the foundations of capitalism, the economy was clearly stalled.
Russia then lost both the Japanese War of 1905 and the First World War. Why did this happen? In addition to spiritual reasons, by that time we had once again, despite new reforms, fallen behind the West technically and militarily. Tsarist Russia, with all due respect to Emperor Nicholas II, failed to cope with this challenge and simply collapsed. Even if this happened with the use of subversion on the part of the West, this factor is secondary.
We defeated the Mongols, Poles and Swedes, Turks and French. But the USSR, on the contrary, was able to repeat Peter’s leap, and Stalin, with all its shortcomings, having accepted an agricultural country, “surrendered” it with powerful industry, advanced science - with the presence of an atomic bomb, very close to the creation of a hydrogen bomb, the launch of the first satellite and the first nuclear reactor. And most importantly, the USSR was able to defeat Nazi Germany and regain all the territories lost after the First World War. During industrialization, we collaborated with the United States, but we did not buy finished products, but technologies and factories. Now, having carried out revolutionary market reforms, the country is on the threshold of a new, again catching-up modernization. The main question is which path it will take – sovereign or liberal?
So what is the secret of the country's constant lag? The second most important leitmotif of the history of Russia is the passive behavior of a significant part of our elites, against the background of the constant contradiction between “Westerners” and “patriots”. As Dambissa Moyo writes in the bestseller How the West Died, the most important thing for civilization is how the elites use their capital. This is another expression of Toynbee’s thoughts about finding a worthy response from the governing elites of civilization. The economy of Tsarist Russia, as now, was raw materials and agricultural. Some of the elites, as today, preferred to eat up capital, obtaining funds through the export of raw materials, and were in favor of free trade. As a rule, this path was followed by the so-called “Westerners” and the passive, “dependent” part of the elite. The passivity of some layers of the elite apparently has a historical character, caused by the presence of a long period of serfdom, “feeding”, “distribution”, etc. The other part - statists - patriots thought about the future (and this is very difficult!), created conditions for the development of national industry, including using, if necessary, Western experience. This, for the most part, included the active, creative part of the elite. Peter I, being a patriot, used the experience of the West, but Peter I cared exclusively about the good of Russia.
These groups had pronounced contradictions. A similar situation occurred in the United States, which led to a civil war between the industrial North and the plantation South. The main motive in this conflict was largely customs policy. Planters wanted free trade (like those who now led us to the WTO), and northern industrialists wanted high tariffs and protection of industry from British expansion. To the benefit of the USA, industrialists turned out to be stronger, otherwise the USA would now be something like Argentina. Under Peter I and Catherine II, customs tariffs were high. But the liberal policy of Alexander II led to a reduction in tariffs, and the economy, as now, had problems. According to some historians, the reason for the opening of the Russian internal market to the West was the loss in the Crimean War. We have the same result now after losing the Cold War. At the same time, the redemption loans received by landowners as a result of the land reform, according to historians, were largely simply “eaten up.” The logic of capitalism is such that the West can consider any country, including Russia, only as a market and source of raw materials.
A similar situation was in Spain, which heaped itself with mountains of American gold and silver, but did not create its own industry, unlike enterprising England. So we, swimming in petrodollars, set out on the path of Spain. Leading figures in Spain at that time, as now in Russia, gave a clear picture of its problems, but no action was taken, as we have done so far. But England quickly realized that exporting raw materials was absolutely ridiculous, and therefore created a powerful civilization. Spain was also one of the strongest countries in the world. But who will remember this now? This is how we lose our positions.
Then Emperor Alexander III came and the liberal shop was abruptly slammed down. Tariffs rose sharply and the economy began to develop rapidly. Konstantin Pobedonostsev, the tsar’s mentor, who later became the chief prosecutor of the Holy Synod, gave Alexander III good advice. In particular, on March 6, 1881, he wrote to the emperor: “... this is a terrible hour and time is running out. Either save Russia and yourself now, or never. If they sing the old siren songs to you about how you need to calm down, you need to continue in the liberal direction... oh, for God’s sake, don’t believe it, Your Majesty, don’t listen. This will be death, the death of Russia and yours: it is clear to me as day..."
History repeats itself: it is not difficult to notice a clear historical similarity between the period from the great reforms of Alexander II and the further movement to the events of 1917 and the current “liberation” and new “enslavement” of the country, from the yoke of the communists to the yoke of the liberals, which began with M. Gorbachev’s Perestroika and continues to the present time, which has led to a new crisis in Russia’s traditional resource-based economic model. The USSR solved the problem by brutally subordinating the elites to the interests of the country and completely closing domestic markets from imports. But as soon as during the time of M. Gorbachev we began to actively import goods using loans taken from the West, the fate of our economy was decided. The current situation is just a continuation of “perestroika”.
As for the current elite, its main part (of course not all) arose mainly not as a result of economic “natural” selection (i.e., due to successful investment), but was largely created artificially as a result of the “distribution” of tidbits of property to the most resourceful representatives of the socialist nomenklatura. Economically and psychologically, this layer is more inclined to consume and consume capital than to invest and create, which is actually what is observed. Almost all of the entrepreneurial strata of Tsarist Russia - our golden fund - were destroyed or emigrated after the revolution, and this is an irreparable loss. To reverse the trend, it is necessary to radically change the principles of the economic system and educate this layer anew.
Now Russia, despite the good standard of living of the middle class, as well as the population of Moscow and some cities, from the point of view of structural reforms has been marking time, at least since 2004. A colossal and perhaps unprecedented in the entire history of the country, the credit of popular trust has been spent by the authorities not for development, but for the conservation of the achieved Status Qwo through the policy of “managed democracy”. Valuable time was wasted in empty chatter. The success of the economy is determined not only by our income, but primarily by the volume of our own production. The current abundance is based on high prices for oil and raw materials.
Take a look at the advertising signs of leading trade brands, are Russian names visible there? Alas, there are not many domestically produced goods in our stores either. And to be buyers, we need to be producers. But production is deteriorating, there are problems with effective employment, which our economy cannot create. What are we doing in Moscow - sitting in offices and sorting out pieces of paper - and is this life and creativity? And what do people do in stagnant regions that look almost like after the war? That’s why the country is quietly dying out, drowning its sorrows in a glass of vodka.
But history cannot be deceived; Russia is being challenged, either it will be completely economically enslaved by the West, as happened in the period before the revolution of 1917, or it will push away from it and play its own game. History repeats itself. Cooperation and enslavement should not be confused - they are different things. But I'm afraid that in order to rise and be reborn, we need to see the full horror of the abyss into which we can fall. And most likely from the point when the conflict with the West will be transferred from a conditionally hidden to an overt phase. Let us remember the Mongol enslavement, when we were subject to tribute and all issues were resolved in the Horde; Moscow, given to the Poles in times of troubles, then to Napoleon and then burned down; the devastation of the country and the loss of vast territories after the First World War and the Civil War; Let us remember the accelerated advance of the fascist army almost to the heart of the country - Moscow and then an unexpected offensive, and then victory. We were retreating, but a turning point came and the understanding came: we can still do it! But aren’t the risks of a radical renewal of the elite too great in this case? After all, this is the only thing close to their understanding.
What is the biggest reason for the economic slowdown? World economic crisis, poor investment climate, low labor productivity? For Russia, as a self-sufficient country, with the right economic policy, foreign markets are not a decree (see the experience of China - it still has a growth rate of 7%). For production to work, it must be profitable. But since the beginning of the 2000s, the ruble has been practically stable, while our domestic prices have increased against the background of the strengthening of the ruble and the growth of domestic costs since 1999 by almost 3.8 times (according to official inflation data). As a result, our production has become uncompetitive. A similar reason for the loss of competitiveness existed on the eve of the pre-crisis year of 1998, when the economy was also in ruins. The situation is aggravated even further due to the complete opening of our markets (remember the tariff policy of Alexander II).
What about our dear money? The refinancing rate is 8.25% with economic growth not exceeding 2%. The rate in conditions of stagnation should be less than the growth rate. For comparison: USA Fed rate - 0.25%, GDP growth - 2.25%; Japan – rate -0.1%, GDP growth – 1.8%; EU – Rate -0.5%, GDP – drop by 0.4%.
Now let's draw another historical parallel. In order to attract foreign investment under Nicholas II, Russia switched to the gold standard, and attracted large loans to purchase gold covering. This strengthened the position of the ruble, but led, as now, to a monetary deficit within the country. If Peter I pursued an active monetary policy, and Catherine II printed paper rubles in any quantity necessary for the country’s economic turnover, then with the introduction of the gold standard (as now with the currency board), despite the growth of the economy and population, such an opportunity was no longer possible. Foreigners invested in Russia and were no less active in buying it up. Huge payments on foreign loans robbed the country; it had to export everything it could (the famous “we don’t have enough to eat, but we’ll export it!”). Domestic demand and consumption were insufficient. All this also prepared the ground for the revolution.
And now we are stepping on the same rake. Money supply growth should be roughly the sum of projected inflation and projected growth. As of September 1, 2013, the M2 money supply in the Russian Federation has increased by only 5% since the beginning of the year. As of the end of September, inflation was 4.72%. What remains for economic growth - 0.3%? If we want 5% growth with 5% inflation, M2 growth must be more than 10%. Even economists at Bank of America and HSBC have already said that our Central Bank is behaving like Scrooge McDuck, although the economy is almost in recession. So where are we going – towards a guaranteed crisis? Then there will definitely be no inflation. And it will be even easier to buy up the remains of our economy.
But in 1998, smart people came, including E. Primakov, who found a classic solution - they carried out a five-fold devaluation and began to actively increase the money supply, without which all the economic growth of the 2000s would have been simply impossible. Another secret of the “economic miracle”, in addition to the rise in oil prices, is the active growth of the money supply during this period (during 1999-2007) by an average of 40% per year, which led to an almost threefold level of monetary security in the economy (monetization level - the M2/GDP ratio - from 15 to 40%) with a threefold drop in inflation from 36 to 12%. Inflation cannot be defeated by monetary starvation; it can only be cured by active economic development. To create conditions for growth, it is necessary to increase the level of monetization to the level of developed countries – i.e. up to 80-100%, but it practically does not grow in the post-crisis period (as of January 1, 2013 – about 44%).
Discussions of economic policy problems, as a rule, are deliberately led into directions where you will never find the correct answer. Because the economy is not ruled by science, but by pure politics in such a form that its true goals are hidden for us behind an iron curtain, open only to a few. The reigning leapfrog makes it difficult to correctly perceive reality. Almost no measures in the current structure of the economy without a sharp reduction in costs and restrictions on imports will have an effect. Suppose a miracle happens, we rearm our entire economy, and our labor productivity will hardly be higher than outside; and if we leave the exchange rate and customs policy at the same level - but who will need these products given our internal costs and overstocked foreign markets?
It is necessary to make domestic production competitive, for which it is necessary to reduce all possible costs - monetary, corruption, criminal, to have cheap tariffs rather than expensive ones, and to develop infrastructure. But here we do absolutely everything the other way around. The country's economy is like a snake eating its own tail. Everyone wants to snatch at least something, but there is no moral and rational center that would take care of the common good. In fact, who is now interested in Russia's progress? Resource elites receiving dollars for oil and gas? The USA and Europe, thinking what to do with their excess capacity and how to push more into foreign markets? And then there are ours? China, which, although it maintains normal relations with us, is only interested in our raw materials and territories. Everyone is afraid of the awakening of the “Russian bear,” now shrouded in fetters on all sides. Current economic policies are pushing the country into the abyss.
The opinions now expressed by some “correct” analysts that slow growth rates are absolutely normal for us are simply absurd. This means that they are ready to preserve our backwardness, given the gigantic level of underinvestment and underdevelopment that we have, with a still huge population. I can assure you for sure that if Emperor Peter I or Alexander III had come now, let’s not talk about Stalin, they would have found a way out of the current situation within 24 hours. The country would start working, and the economy would develop no worse than the Chinese one in its best times, growing by no less than 7% per year.
And another important point about the behavior of the elites. Our elites do not want to pay higher taxes (on a progressive scale), as they do in virtually semi-socialist Germany (free and frankly cheap higher education, large unemployment benefits, inexpensive housing), as was the case before 1917. Thus, they want shirk responsibility for the development of the country. And they also cannot spend budget money without embezzlement. Meanwhile, the elites of Germany do not shine with luxury, but they shine with achievements in industry (although Germany has its own problems - the migration of a population that does not want to assimilate from southern undeveloped countries). Why do we shine? Withdrawal of capital and complete concession of our markets to foreigners, steadily supported by the high real exchange rate of the ruble? Do embezzlers, racketeers, raiders, corrupt officials, businessmen who do not pay taxes understand that they harm society, and ultimately themselves? Or are they just maximizing their capital? Think about it, what's wrong with you? What is the price of success in terms of morality and eternity?
At one time, Ivan Kalita took extremely important steps to defeat the Mongol yoke. He began to build churches, transferring the spiritual center of our civilization to Moscow, was able to begin unification processes, brought order to the state, which stimulated economic development and ensured an influx of population to his principality. But only his grandson Dmitry Donskoy was able to successfully concentrate the forces of the state and defeat the Mongol hordes on the Kulikovo Field. Yes, we did it, although this was not the end of the struggle. Despite the economic impasse, the Orthodox Church is steadily strengthening, the number of new and restored churches and churchgoers is growing. As Toynbee believed, civilization is reborn only on a strong spiritual basis.
Elites must invest and pay taxes, otherwise the state will not survive. And the state, despite the inertia of officials, should not interfere, or even better, actively help in this. Otherwise, things will end in a crisis or a dictatorship, which will unexpectedly put everything in its place. What if fate sends us a new severe test in the form of a new global economic crisis, international or internal conflict, as has happened more than once? In fact, everything is repeating itself, now we are completely losing both in the economic war and in the battle of minds, we are losing sovereignty. And now, as before, we can say: there is nowhere to retreat - Moscow is behind us. But the current enemy is cunning to the point of impossibility, and most importantly, the front has no boundaries, passing everywhere, including inside us, and we, like zombies, continue to babble liberal mantras that deprive us of development.
So why not resort to a proven remedy - devaluation? Well, how can it be - our “partners” will be very unhappy, because they will not be able to peddle their gross product to us. After all, at the G20 one can hear constant incantations against “currency wars.” How will the population react to the inevitable rise in prices? Purchasing equipment abroad will be expensive, but what about loans taken in foreign currency for those companies that only have ruble revenue? With a soft and correct devaluation, everyone will benefit: raw materials producers, industrialists, the population, and banks. The ruling elite has time before the next elections to repeat the success of E. Primakov. You just have to be patient. Without work, sacrifice and service there will never be success. Who was dissatisfied with economic growth in the period 1999-2007, although immediately after the depreciation of the ruble everything looked terrible?
And if we leave everything as it is, then unemployment will rise, the economy may go into a tailspin, and the results of future elections may be so disastrous that no “miracles” can correct them. As for devaluation, everything depends on the specific situation, but there is proven experience - L. Erhard, the German economic miracle; F.D. Roosevelt, the measures during the Great Depression, today's China, and finally Russia after 1998 have all taken advantage of the undervaluation.
The foundation of the new economy, as under Alexander II, has been built - it’s time to think about your national interests. As our great philosopher I. Ilyin wrote: “Russian state power will either be strong or it will not exist at all.” Historically, only such power provided the country with goal-setting, unity, achievements and progress. Toynbee believed that the essence of civilization would definitely remind itself. As Horace wrote, “Drive nature through the door, it will fly through the window.” Only a strong hand can consolidate the state and establish order, putting the country on the path of progress, depriving the strongest individualists of the opportunity to create chaos and harm in society, subordinating them to public interests in the name of general harmony. For example, F.D. Roosevelt did this by introducing higher taxes and strict government regulation of the economy. But the USA has become a world leader. And their current problems are primarily related to the rejection of his legacy.
At one time, ancient Greece was unable to overcome disunity, as a result it was replaced by a stronger Roman civilization. In addition, pagan civilizations did not have a spiritual basis that could provide them with a future. On the contrary, Russia consolidated during the Mongol yoke, as a result it freed itself and became a global player. Other examples are the unification of the nation by F.D. Roosevelt, and the fragmented Germany by Otto von Bismarck. As for Russia, it is now not only multiplying, but also actively encouraging splits. Society is split into left and right, communists and liberals, there are national and regional contradictions, and income inequality is growing. There are no national goals and objectives in the country, the ideology is fruitless, just like the slogan “Every man for himself, get rich!” is fruitless. But “...every kingdom divided against itself is desolate; and every city or house divided against itself will not stand” (Gospel of Matthew, 12:25).
There are cardinal contradictions in the country between the interests of the elite and its national interests. Our industrial lobby, due to the policy of “open doors” and “lowering” the national industry “below the plinth”, has practically no internal weight. This is reflected in economic, trade, industrial, monetary policies, as well as military and educational reforms, which together lead to a lack of development, insufficient investment in an unsatisfactory investment climate and capital flight. There is no need to throw up your hands and pass off the consequences as the cause, you need to look at the root. That is why so much is said about this and little is done, one thing is promised, another comes out. Like Sisyphus, we constantly (seemingly) overcome difficulties, but from the point of view of fundamental economic interests we are marking time, chaotically darting in different directions. This is why many experts cannot understand what is happening in the country.
Now the strength of civilization lies not only in the army, but in industry and science. For a long time now, there has been a constant struggle in the world for the markets of foreign countries. And as the experience of any wars (real and economic) shows, the one with stronger industry and science wins. Let us once again recall the differences in this area between Tsarist Russia and the USSR. So how are we doing in this area? In Moscow, it has almost been destroyed and replaced by business centers; in the regions there are either collapsed buildings or dilapidated factories, barely making ends meet. At the same time, we withdraw 55-65 billion annually. dollars of capital, and imports of goods worth 342.7 billion dollars. Only production can create national wealth, as is perfectly shown in the book of the Norwegian economist Erik S. Reinert “How rich countries became rich and why poor countries remain poor.”
Until the conflict with the West manifests itself clearly, there will be no national policy, because the vector of the elites is too strongly directed outside the country. Now the policy of total concessions prevails, which is carried out in the name of the possibility of integrating our elites into global ones. But this is an illusion - no one will ever let us in there unless we achieve it with our own strength. No one can come to an agreement with the United States; they can only use someone for their own purposes, even when they help someone.
And only the Syrian conflict, like a Rubicon, associated with the battle for the possibility of transiting Qatari gas to Europe against the Russian gas route, forces Russia to go against the West. And even this conflict essentially lies in the same external vector of the elites - in the struggle for raw materials markets. The United States is pushing Russia here too, increasing the export of hydrocarbons. A showdown over Arctic oil deposits is ahead. What if the US decides to confiscate our banking holdings in their banks, as was done with Iraq and Libya, and there is information that some US senators are already proposing to introduce similar sanctions? When the secret becomes clear, then the elites will be faced with the question - who are you with, “servants” of the people? Or as Moses asked, descending from the mountain, finding Israel in a terrible fall: “Who is the Lord’s...?”
And finally, the second impetus for change “from below” can come from mass social discontent. But you shouldn’t indulge yourself in illusions - the Russians have been patient for a long time, but the cauldron could explode at any moment. So, you need a reason. If there is no reform, there are no reforms.
The only way in the current situation to start the economic engine when demand is weak, including the slowdown in the external economy, is to sharply increase investments in infrastructure projects (roads, bridges, airports, electricity and housing) and industrial development. Look at the experience of the United States during the Great Depression, and now China, which has already launched two programs to develop the country’s infrastructure. By the way, the United States has now begun to return jobs to their homeland - from electronics to clothing production.
This will create enormous multiplier demand, change the quality of life, and increase investment attractiveness. Dmitry Medvedev is right when he talks about economic freedom and the business climate. But in times of crisis, without government stimulus measures, the economy will go into a tailspin - this is an axiom that has been time-tested many times and theoretically justified by J.M. Keynes. During a crisis, the main thing for the private sector is preference for liquidity; there is no investment.
What is the conclusion? We have a Western yoke, and it, like the Mongolian one, must be thrown off. And this is an excellent chance to create a new model of “social capitalism”, free from shortcomings. Yes, we can - there is no other way, otherwise the fate of our successor, the Byzantine Empire, may await us. But “Moscow is the third Rome, ... and there will never be a fourth!” And as Alexander II said to dissatisfied elites: “It is better to abolish serfdom from above than to wait for the people to abolish it from below.” Russia and its leaders, if they value what they have and are supposed to be reasonable and should not repeat the mistakes of their predecessors made in Tsarist Russia, must find a way out of the current situation. Otherwise, the river of history will wash away the house of cards that they built, even if it is beautiful in its luxury. The wave of liberalization will absolutely inevitably be replaced by a wave of nationally oriented policies. These are the lessons of history.
Synopsis of the books “THE BOOK OF FATES” and “THE FATE OF RUSSIA. HISTORY OF THE FUTURE"
For many representatives of the human race, this question has never been a reality, for in their lives they are unconsciously guided by the motto expressed by the holy Apostle Matthew, “His wickedness is sufficient for the day” (Matthew 6:34).
For a few, the positive answer to this question was an attempt to find patterns in history and use them to predict the future. Attempts to predict the future have not stopped since ancient times. For example, the Old Testament prophets, the author of the Apocalypse, Nostradamus and many others. Maybe God granted them the ability to see the future, but for mere mortals who do not have this skill, their prophecies are “dark as the path in the darkness beyond the grave” ( Bunin I. A.). These are predictions without specific places and dates, these are predictions “in general.” Any modern interpreter can attribute these prophecies to any historical event, whether in the past, present or future.
We are interested in the history of mankind. To truly know the future of humanity, it is necessary to identify the patterns of its historical development. Some thinkers, for example, A.I. Herzen, categorically stated that history does not repeat itself. And since there is no repetition of historical events, then there is no comprehension of history, and the future depends on the actions in the present of the creator of history - man. Others say that at the time of creation God had already created everything - the past, the present, and the future, and since man is not given the ability to know the works of God, then a weak person cannot know history, the creation of God, and he cannot create the future. , since the future is already predetermined. Still others, for example O. Spengler, A. J. Toynbee, L. N. Gumilyov, stated that patterns exist and tried to find the laws of history.
We also declare that history repeats itself, and we prove this in the history of the State.
Our world and everything in it has its beginning and its end, its birth and its death. The Universe, the Sun, the Earth, and Humanity have their own cycle, but the duration of the cycle for each phenomenon is different. It is precisely this difference, as well as the interconnection and interdependence of the Fates, that gives rise to the very dissimilarity of repeating events. This work examines the histories of some states that are carriers of Fates. The rest of the countries are just a background against which the fateful countries implement the will of their Destinies. The duration of the cycle for these Fates is the same - 370 years, but the time of birth is different. The bearer of Destiny is the state, the territory on which it is located, the people, their faith and culture. L.N. Gumilyov writes: “At the population level, the actions of an ethnos are programmed by the environment, culture and genetic memory. On a personal level, they are free.” ( Gumilev L.N. “Ancient Rus' and the Great Steppe”, p. 421). The actions of an ethnos aimed at creating a state are guided by Fate. At the dawn of mankind, the influence of the Fates on each other was insignificant, but the events of our era show their increasing and pervasive influence and interconnection. The end-beginning of any period is the death of God and his resurrection. This is the time of the death of states and their revival. The countries and peoples inhabiting them are pawns that the player, Fate, sacrifices or queens at her own discretion to achieve goals known only to her. Until the period determined by Fate expires, the state, which is the bearer of Fate, will not disappear. When Fate wants to kill a state, it gives it insignificant rulers, greedy for power, overwhelmed by ambition, greed and self-interest. In our works we consider the Fates of the World (the authors did not consider the history of India and Southeast Asia, since their history is under the authority of the Fates and the Fate of Africa considered).
Destiny of the World
(the year the cycle began is indicated)
Roman Fate
…1383−1013−643−273 - 97−467−837−1207−1577−1947−2317…
Altai Destiny
…1778−1408−1038−668−298 - 72−442−812−1182−1552−1922−2292…
German Destiny
…1839−1469−1099−729−359 - 11−381−751−1121−1491−1861−2231…
Iranian Destiny
…1810−1440−1070−700−330 - 40−410−780−1150−1520−1890−2260…
Arabian Destiny
…1590−1220−850−480−110 - 260−630−1000−1370−1740−2110…
Balkan Destiny
…1879−1509−1139−769−399−29 - 341−711−1081−1451−1821−2191…
Asia Minor Destiny
…1925−1555−1185−815−445−75 - 295−665−1035−1405−1775−2145…
Young Chinese Destiny
…1686−1316−946−576−206 - 164−534−904−1274−1644−2014…
Old Chinese Fate
…1841−1471−1101−731−361 - 9−379−749−1119−1489−1859−2229…
Phoenician Destiny
…1996−1626−1256−886−516−146 - 224−594−964−1334−1704−2074…
The fate of Russia
…1708−1338−968−598−228 - 142−512−882−1252−1622−1992−2362…
From the list of the above mentioned Fates we will take “ Altai Destiny" from "Books of Fates", which examines the Fates and their impact on the peoples and states subject to them, We will consider it from 442, although it is much older.
And then let's take " Altai Destiny" from book “The fate of Russia. History of the future", where the influence of this Destiny on " The fate of Russia."
And at the end we will consider The fate of Russia
BOOK OF FATES
Altai Destiny.
At the beginning of the 3rd century AD. e. China was negatively affected by the end of the Old Chinese Destiny cycle. The Western Jin Empire was rocked by internecine wars. Lacking the strength to repel the nomadic tribes attacking from Manchuria, Mongolia and Tibet, the empire lost its northern territories up to the Yangtze River. On the occupied lands, the nomads created their own states, fighting among themselves for hegemony in Northern China. The she-wolf is indifferent to which of her cubs drinks the milk. The strong push away the weak, dooming them to death. Death to the weak is the law. So is Fate, she doesn’t care who seizes power, she always has several contenders to carry out her will. The strongest and most worthy turned out to be one of the Mongol-speaking Xianbi tribes - the Toba tribe. The Tabgachi overcame the consequences of defeat from the kingdom of Early Qin in 376 and managed to create their own state in 386 - the kingdom of Northern Wei (386−535, from 395 - an empire). In 439, the Northern Wei Empire conquered the last independent kingdom of Northern Liang (397−439). The entire North of China came under the rule of the Northern Wei Empire. A small group of residents of the Western Liang kingdom, led by Prince Ashina, were forced to emigrate to the Rourans. “The Turkuts arose like this: in 439, a small detachment of Prince Ashin fled from Northwestern China from the victorious and ruthless Tabgaches. The composition of this detachment was varied, but the predominant ethnic group were the Xianbeans, that is, the ancient Mongols. Having settled on the slopes of Altai and Khingan and mixed with the aborigines, the Turkuts made their narrow specialty smelting iron and making weapons.” ( Gumilev L.N. “Ancient Rus' and the Great Steppe”, p. 30).
While the Old Chinese Fate favored the Tabgachas, the Turkuts remained under the rule of the Rourans. In 534 the End-Beginning of the cycle of the Young Chinese Destiny began. The influence of the Old Chinese Fate has disappeared. As a result of the turmoil, the Northern Wei Empire broke up in 534 into two parts at war with each other. The Turkic people took advantage of this war, they destroyed the Rourans who had sheltered them a hundred years ago and created the Turkic Khaganate.
In 601, the Turkic Khaganate split into two independent Khaganates - Eastern and Western. In 630, the Eastern Turks were conquered by the Chinese Tang Empire; in 658, the same fate befell the Western Turks.
An outstanding statesman and political figure of Persia, Mazdak (?-529), who lived in the 5th century, was the leader of the “communist movement, which was based on the religious-dualistic teaching of Zaradushta (III century), which was a reform of the teachings of the Manichaeans” ( Small Soviet Encyclopedia. - M., 1928−1932, vol. IV, p. 803), in 491 proclaimed the slogan “Rob the loot!” Some of the Jews living in Persia, who became rich thanks to the support of the rulers, were forced to flee the country to the Roman Empire. Some Jews supported Mazdak and took an active part in this “communist” movement. In 529, a counter-revolutionary coup took place, and this time the Mazdakite Jews, who found shelter with the Khazars living between the Sulak and Terek rivers, were forced to flee the country.
The Jews who settled among the Khazars were joined by fellow tribesmen from the Roman Empire. “The Jews who found salvation in Byzantium should have helped the Byzantines. But they helped in a rather strange way. Making secret agreements with the Arabs, the Jews opened the gates of the cities at night and let in the Arab soldiers. They slaughtered the men and sold the women and children into slavery. The Jews, buying up slaves cheaply, resold them at a considerable profit for themselves. The Greeks could not like this. But, deciding not to make new enemies for themselves, they limited themselves to inviting the Jews to leave. Thus, a second group of Jews appeared on the lands of the Khazars - the Byzantine" ( Gumilev L.N. From Rus' to Russia: Essays on Ethnic History. - M., 2000, p. 34). Toynbee is only partially right when he says that emigrants, including Jews, having stood the test of an alien human environment, are completely satisfied with reaping the harvest from a field not cultivated by them. Toynbee A. J. Comprehension of history: Collection. / Per. from English - M., 2001, p. 181). In addition to the harvest, they also need the blood of the plowman.
In 567, the Khazars living in the Caspian region became part of the Turkic Kaganate. In 650, one of the representatives of the ruling Ashina dynasty fled to the Khazars from the Khaganate, torn by civil strife, to save his life. Having stood at the head of the Khazars, he, with their support, separated the Khazars from the Turkic Khaganate and created a new Khaganate - the Khazar Khaganate. The Chinese, when conquering the Turks of the Western Turkic Khaganate, were unable to conquer them due to the remoteness of the Khazars.
The Jews became related to the ruling Turkic dynasty and turned it into a Jewish one. In 808, “in the Khazar Kaganate, a certain influential Jew Obadiah took power into his own hands, turning the khan from the Ashina dynasty (on his father’s side) into a puppet and making rabbinic Judaism the state religion of Khazaria ( Gumilev L.N. Discovery of Khazaria, p. 283).
“The legitimate khan from the Ashin clan became a Jew, that is, he accepted the faith of his mother and was accepted into the community. All government positions were distributed among the Jews, and Obadiah himself took the title "peh" (bek), translated into Arabic as "malik", i.e. king. This means that he headed the government under the nominal khan (khagan), who from that time was in custody and released to the people once a year ( ibid., p. 284).
“The coup, the victim of which was the patrimonial aristocracy of all ethnic groups that were part of the Khazar Kaganate and coexisted with the Turkic dynasty, caused a civil war, where the Magyars took the side of the rebels, and the Pechenegs hired for money took the side of the Jews. This war was merciless, since, according to the Babylonian Talmud, “a non-Jew who does evil to a Jew inflicts it on the Lord himself and, thus committing lèse-majesté, deserves death” ( from the treatise "Sanhedrin", without specifying the sheet and column).
For the early Middle Ages, total war was an unusual innovation. It was supposed, having broken the enemy's resistance, to impose taxes and duties on the defeated, often military service in auxiliary units. But the total extermination of all people who were on the other side of the front was an echo of ancient times. For example, during the conquest of Canaan by Joshua, it was forbidden to take women and children captive and thereby leave them alive. It was even prescribed to kill domestic animals belonging to the enemy. Obadiah revived a forgotten antiquity.
After this war, the beginning and end of which cannot be precisely dated, Khazaria changed its appearance. From systemic integrity it turned into an unnatural combination of an amorphous mass of subjects with a ruling class alien by blood and religion ( ibid., pp.285−286).
This dynasty began to wage wars of conquest against its neighbors. In particular, the Slavic tribes of the Polans, Vyatichi, Northerners and Radimichi became tributaries of Khazaria in the 8th century. In 808, the Jewish community carried out a Jewish revolution in the Khazar Kaganate and usurped power, plunging their host country into the abyss of civil war. The Jews waged an all-out war against the Khazar people. The persecution of the Orthodox began. The Orthodox bishopric was liquidated. Christians fled the country. In general, the same thing happened that happened after three cycles of the Altai Destiny in Russia (808+370×3=1918). By suppressing the resistance of the Khazar people, the Jews intensified the colonial oppression of their neighbors. “...Slavic lands in the 9th-10th centuries. became a source of slaves for Jews, like Africa in the 17th-19th centuries.” ( Gumilyov L.N. Ancient Rus' and the Great Steppe. - M., 2002, p. 200).
1 182
In 1182, part of the Mongols, obeying the will of their Fate, proclaimed Temujin Khan with the title Chinggis ( L.N. Gumilyov “In search of an imaginary kingdom”, p. 137). Thus begins the creation of a great and formidable power. Thus begins a centuries-long period of sorrows and misfortunes for the Mongols, which almost led them to complete disappearance from the face of the earth. The darkness of the Mongol-Tatars is still destroying countries and peoples, and the poison of the vanquished is already corrupting the victors.
The power of Genghis Khan, even before the death of its creator, according to his will, was divided into uluses between his four sons. The uluses are still part of a single, but already divided empire, the unity disappears, the heirs of Genghis Khan see each other as sworn enemies and the blood of the “conquerors of the universe” begins to flow. The descendants of Genghis Khan's third son and his successor Ogedei were completely exterminated by the Hulaguids. The Chagatai ulus - allocated by Genghis Khan himself, as well as the state of the Hulaguids and the Ulus of the Great Khan or the Yuan state, founded by the siblings of Hulagu and Kublai, do not survive the turn of 1370 (the year of the beginning of the cycle of Arabian Destiny), and only fragments of the Golden Horde manage to achieve it with great difficulty overcome and go through the full cycle. Internal unrest and the invasion of Tamerlane dealt a crushing blow to the Golden Horde, from which it could not recover. In the 15th century, numerous khanates and hordes arose on its ruins, which were later included in the Russian Empire, which by force took the right to the legacy of Genghis Khan.
At the beginning of the 16th century, Mongolia consisted of two large parts: western and eastern, separated by the Khangai Mountains. Each part consisted of smaller properties. One of the rulers, Dayan Khan (Khan in 1479-1543), united almost all of Mongolia under his rule. Before his death, Dayan Khan divided the country into eleven fiefs according to the number of sons. Mongolia again split into Eastern and Western Mongolia; Eastern Mongolia, in addition divided by the Gobi Desert, split into Northern and Southern Mongolia. The Mongols had their say. Altai Destiny abandoned the Mongols.
In 1921, units of the Red Army, which entered the territory of Mongolia at the request of the Mongolian Provisional Government formed as a result of the revolution, together with the Mongolian army expelled the White Guards. On July 11, 1921, the independence of Mongolia was declared in liberated Urga. The Bogdo Gegen became the head of the state. After his death (1924), Mongolia was proclaimed a People's Republic.
Altai Destiny
The closer the end of the cycle approached, the more the Kazan Khanate was influenced by its neighbors. Kazan was the key to Jochi's legacy. It became the arena of struggle between Crimea and Moscow.
Attempts by fragments of the Golden Horde to unite and resist the increasing influence of Moscow were unsuccessful. Russia was able to reverse the situation and snatch the banner of the Altai Destiny from the hands of its enemies and begin the conquest of its conquerors, although the negativity of the end of the cycle influenced not only the Tatar khanates. Moscow had to experience it for itself.
In 1552 Moscow conquered Kazan.
The year 552 marked the beginning of the process of unifying all the lands of the Altai Destiny under the leadership of Russia, which successfully completed the task. By 1922, all the lands of this Destiny became subject to Moscow.
On October 25, 1922, with the liberation of Vladivostok, the civil war and intervention ended. The power of the Bolsheviks completely crushed the great country. On December 27, 1922, an agreement was signed between the RSFSR, Ukraine, Belarus and the Transcaucasian Federation on the formation of the USSR. On December 30, the Kurultai of plenipotentiary representatives of these countries approved the declaration and agreement on the formation of the Union of Kurultai Socialist Uluses.
THE DESTINY OF RUSSIA. HISTORY OF THE FUTURE
The fate of RUSSIA
In the 9th century, two centers of unification of East Slavic tribes emerged - Kyiv, the main city of the Polyans, and Ladoga, the main city of the Slovenes (Ilmen).
The North Russian tribe of Slovenes (Ilmen) was ruled by their prince Gostomysl. After his death, the tribe became dependent on the Varangians and became their tributary. In 862, the Slovenes refused to pay tribute. In the struggle for power, they began to experience unrest and strife. Tired of all this, the Slovenes invited the leader of the Baltic Slavs, Rurik the Slav, and his brothers Sineus and Truvor to reign. The brothers were the grandchildren of the Slovenian prince Gostomysl, their mother was Umila Gostomyslovna, their father was Godlav Bodrichsky. The elder brother Rurik (born c. 830 - died in 879) settled in Ladoga, the middle brother Sineus - on Beloozero, the youngest, Truvor - in Izborsk.
In 864, when his younger brothers died, Rurik moved to Novgorod. He appointed his governors to the cities of Polotsk, Rostov, Beloozero and others.
Before his death, Rurik handed over the reign not to his young son, but to his relative Oleg. In 882, Oleg (Prince of Novgorod in 879−882; Prince of Kiev in 882−912) set out on a campaign with a retinue. He occupied Smolensk and Lyubech, and installed his governors there. In Kyiv, the main city of the Polyans, princes Askold and Dir ruled. Having insidiously seized the rulers of Kyiv, Oleg killed them and sat down to reign there himself, making Kyiv the capital of his possessions (“the mother of Russian cities”). Tributes were established to the Slavs and Mary. In 883 Oleg conquered the Drevlyans. Then the northerners (884) and Radimichi (885), who had previously paid tribute to the Khazars, were conquered.
In 882, a period of Russian history known as “Kievan Rus” began.
In 1206, history repeated itself. Residents of Galich called Vladimir, Roman and Svyatoslav Igorevich to reign. The brothers were the grandchildren of the Galician prince Yaroslav Vladimirovich Osmomysl, their mother was Efrosinya Yaroslavna, and their father was Igor Svyatoslavich (Prince of Novgorod-Seversky in 1180-1198, Prince of Chernigov in 1198-1202), the hero of “The Tale of Igor’s Campaign” .
Looking at the events of a thousand years ago through the prism of modern reality, I just want to say: “In 882, Oleg Varangsky and the Novgorod lads decided to attack the Kyiv boys. He took Smolensk and Lyubech, and placed his watchers there. The Kyiv troops were led by Askold and Dir. Oleg hit the arrow on which the Kyiv leaders were killed.”
In the first years of the Mongol-Tatar yoke, when most of the country’s cities were burned, the population was killed and driven into slavery, the survivors were subject to exorbitant tribute, when the question arose about the existence of Rus' itself and its people, two rulers were revealed in it and for it - Daniil Galitsky and Alexander Nevsky. The country had the opportunity to be reborn in a new form, but what path the revival would take depended on the will of these people. New Rus' was supposed to be reborn in the Galician-Volyn principality, but it was reborn in the Vladimir-Suzdal land.
The main role in choosing the path was played by the relationship between Rus' and Catholic Europe and the Horde. The wrong choice made by Daniil of Galicia and his descendants led the Kingdom of Galicia to the fall under the blows of Western invaders and the conquest of Southern Rus' and the people for long and difficult centuries of slavery and captivity.
The policy of Alexander Nevsky and his heirs, who saw the main danger in the desire of the Catholic West to seize the “country of cities” and force the population to renounce Orthodoxy and accept Catholic dogmas, helped Rus' to overcome everything, overcome everything, resist and be reborn.
Alexander Nevsky continued the policies of his great-great-grandfather Vladimir Monomakh. “In fact, in the XII-XIII centuries. The Polovtsian land (Dasht-i-Kypchak) and Kievan Rus constituted one polycentric state" ( Gumilyov L.N. Ancient Rus' and the Great Steppe. - M., 2002.16, p. 303−304). The Polovtsians were replaced by the Mongol-Tatars. The burden of choosing Alexander Nevsky was much heavier than the burden of choosing Monomakh. He has a strong state, while Alexander Nevsky has a fragmented, bloodless and depopulated country.
The Troubles ended after the election of sixteen-year-old Mikhail Romanov as Tsar.
« GOD SHORTENES THE TIME OF TROUBLES FOR THE PEOPLE HE CHOSES» (Mark 13:20).
In 1622, the last prominent participants in the Time of Troubles passed away - Fyodor Ivanovich Mstislavsky, who died three times in 1598, 1606 and 1610. refused to be nominated to the Russian throne, and Ksenia Borisovna Godunova. After their death, a new cycle begins.
The policy of the traitor Gorbi led to the weakening of the central government and the collapse of the country. An unsuccessful attempt to stop the collapse was made by the Eight Boyars of the State Emergency Committee. But whatever happens, it cannot be avoided. It is impossible to cancel the death of God, he must ascend to the cross, but reducing or increasing his suffering depends on the will of man. If a person is a champion of Evil, then he increases suffering and for this he must be punished.
The ruling circles of the union republics, headed by Yeltsin, striving for even greater power, destroyed the USSR. On December 8, 1991, in a deep Belarusian forest, in Belovezhskaya Pushcha, a few kilometers from the Soviet-Polish border, the leaders of three republics (RSFSR, Ukrainian SSR and BSSR) gathered - B. N. Yeltsin, L. M. Kravchuk and S. S. Shushkevich and signed the Agreement on the creation of the CIS, prepared in deep secrecy from their peoples. On December 21, the leaders of eight more republics joined this Agreement.
Deputies of the Parliament of Ukraine and the Supreme Councils of Belarus and Russia ratified the documents on December 10, 11 and 12, respectively. Soon, the highest authorities of almost all the republics that signed the Union Treaty in 1922 denounced it.
On the evening of December 25, speaking on television, M. Gorbachev stated the collapse of the USSR and resigned as president of the USSR. The Russian flag was raised over the Grand Kremlin Palace instead of the state flag of the Soviet Union. The next day, the Council of Republics of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR held its last meeting and adopted a Declaration in which it announced the end of the existence of the USSR. The Soviet Union, having existed for exactly 69 years, went into oblivion. The bomb planted under the building of the USSR statehood by V.I. Lenin exploded and smashed it to smithereens.
Russia is gone, Russia is out
And it doesn't ring bells.
Not a word or breath of her,
Nobody guards sadness.
Russia silences the chatter
And he lies upside down.
And we leave with her forever,
Without realizing your guilt.
And in the Novgorod region there are Uzbeks
They are already uprooting virgin soil.
M. Dudin
As history shows, only a mono-ethnic state can overcome the difficult times of the End-Beginning of the cycle. The state, which unites numerous tribes, nationalities and peoples, does not overcome this boundary and disappears forever into the abyss of oblivion. Russia could overcome troubled times only because it was a country of one Russian people. From the beginning of the 19th century, the process of transforming Russia into a multinational state began, but until the end of the 20th century, the Russian people maintained their dominant position. The current policy of immigration of Russia (precisely Russia, not the Russian Federation), its occupation by foreigners and aliens, while simultaneously depopulating the Russian people, is leading Russia to the slaughter. 2361 - this will be the last year of Russia’s existence, if you don’t...
CONCLUSION
» You must do good from evil , That's why What his more Not from what to do ».
R. P. Warren
Russia is a great country. She will have a great future if you and I don't lose her. During the years of unrest, internal strife and intervention, its territory decreased, but the unrest passed, and Russia was restored not only to the same size, but also increased, expanding its borders, and its power increased. With internal unity, no one could offend her with impunity, but in times of internal strife, when the unity of the country was violated, the neighbors, like mad dogs, pounced on Russia, trying to snatch as much as possible from its wealth. But even in difficult years, when the question of the existence of the Russian state was raised, the enemies failed to destroy it. It’s an amazing thing: countries that have been fighting each other for centuries cannot achieve an advantage in this fight, but as soon as Russia fights with any country, that country can no longer be found on the map. It either disappears completely or falls under the rule of Russia or its allies for centuries. Where are the Obras, Khazars, Pechenegs, Polovtsians? Where are the numerous hordes and orders?
We perceive today's world statically. It seems to us that the West has gone far ahead and we will never catch up with it. This is not so, it also has its own cycle, and today events are emerging that will show the European peoples where Kuzka’s mother spends the winter. Europe not the center of the earth, she is just one of the many peninsulas of Asia . The unity of the West is an ephemeral thing, the day will come when unity will disappear, and in its place discord and hostility will appear. And rivers of blood will flow again. “New cities will become dust, leaving not a trace in memory, only the winds, howling at the ends of the earth, will continue to sing in their dust” ( Sterling Brown).
Determining Russia's position in the system of states, Peter I attached great importance to connections with the East. “We need Europe for several decades,” said Peter I, “and then we must turn our backs to it,” that is, facing the East.
Stop fidgeting. It's time to turn inward and look at yourself. Russia has no friends in this world and must rely only on its own strength.