The closer the next presidential race in the United States is, the more often one can hear talk that one should not count on improvement in Russian-American relations under the current Obama administration, which means that one should, supposedly, simply wait for the arrival of a new head of American state in the White House, with with which it will be possible to resolve all the issues of varying severity that have accumulated recently. Of course, such thoughts, as they say, warm the soul. Indeed, why not?
Perhaps reason and logic will prevail and Washington, under the next president, will abandon the policy of confrontation with Russia. Of course, dreaming, as they say, is not harmful, but an analysis of the likely outcome of the future presidential campaign in 2016 does not inspire any confidence in this, since at the moment the most likely replacement for Barack Obama is the wife of former US President Bill Clinton, former US Secretary of State 2008-2013 Hillary Clinton. Remember this one? A pleasant lady in all respects who compared Putin to Hitler. So she, apparently, will steer the American ship...
Hillary Clinton
In general, the struggle for the presidency in the United States is always a struggle between the elites. The American elite is formally divided into two camps - conventionally Republicans and Democrats, organized under the wings of parties corresponding by name. However, within these groups there are also small groups that represent the interests of various influential and wealthy families - the Bushes, Kennedys, Roosevelts, etc. (political component), Soros, Rockefellers and others (economic and industrial component). Moreover, in the vast majority of cases, “economic families” get involved in politics, and “political” ones get involved in business, which ensures a strong fusion of political power in the United States with business and industry. Each of the “clans” places its bet on a specific candidate. And it seems that the absolute heavyweights of American politics and economics - the Kennedy clan and the Soros clan - have placed their bets on Hillary Clinton.
So, a year ago, Caroline Kennedy, who at that time was the US Ambassador to Japan, said that her family would support the former first lady of the United States in her fight for the presidency in 2016. According to Kennedy, the former US Secretary of State has proven herself excellent in this work and has an excellent wealth of experience and knowledge for the presidency. Another representative of the Kennedy family agrees with this opinion - US Senator from Massachusetts Ted Kennedy, who promised Clinton "full support" if she decides to run for election.
However, the support of Clinton by the influential Kennedy clan is not surprising, since the Clinton family has fairly close and long-standing contacts with the Kennedys. At one time, they provided financial and political support to Bill Clinton, as a result of which he won the presidential race and became the 42nd president of the United States. After this, the Kennedys and the Clintons maintained close friendships. In 2008, Caroline Kennedy helped Hillary Clinton raise funds for her election race, however, after some time, the Kennedys turned away from Clinton, betting on her Democratic Party colleague Barack Obama. At the time, Clinton and the Kennedy clan refused to voice the reason for such a “turn.” At the same time, the influential newspaper The Washington Post writes that it was Obama’s lobbying by the Kennedy family that secured his place in the White House. As for Clinton, she did not break off her useful relationship with Kennedy, and the family itself was hardly interested in losing friendship with Clinton, as a result of which the “Iron Lady of American politics” received a kind of compensation - the position of Secretary of State, which was also influenced by the Kennedys.
In addition to political heavyweights, American business sharks spoke out in support of Clinton. Thus, one of the richest people in the United States and the world, financier and multi-billionaire Warren Buffett, at the forum of “the most powerful women” according to Fortune magazine in California, said: “Hillary will win. I will bet money on it. And I don’t do such things for nothing.” According to some reports, Buffett is going to partially finance Clinton's election campaign.
George Soros, known as the largest financial donor to the Democratic Party, who periodically helps its candidates occupy the White House in Washington, also came out in support of Clinton. Not long ago, Soros announced a large-scale fundraising for Clinton’s election campaign, while the owner of a fortune of $20 billion refused to name specific amounts, but it is not difficult to guess that Soros is unlikely to spare money to make Clinton president. Based on all of the above, we can conclude that Clinton will be “promoted” by very influential people who do not lack political influence and financial resources.
So, it is most likely that the next owner of the presidential chair will be Hillary Clinton. Of course, we are mainly concerned with one question - how can this affect Russian-American relations, which are already not in the best state?
Hillary Clinton: "Europe needs to stop coddling the Russians!"
The prospects are grim. Clinton is considered a supporter of "tough" measures against Russia. So, just recently, the “iron lady” of world politics completely criticized the European Union, which, unlike Canada, which recently expanded the sanctions list, is in no hurry to get further into the loop of anti-Russian sanctions, pleasing its overseas patron. Thus, Mrs. Clinton believes that Europe is pursuing too soft a policy towards Russia and “strongly recommends” tightening it, since Russia, according to the future candidate for the presidency of the United States, “will continue its expansionist policy, trying to expand its zone of influence on countries , which were not previously part of the USSR." A hint of Turkey, Hungary, Serbia, Greece, Syria and Egypt? Maybe.
Speaking about the situation around Crimea, Clinton admits that Ukraine will not be able to return it by military means, however, in order to force Russia to abandon the peninsula, the United States, in her opinion, has a much more effective tool, whose name is sanctions. According to Clinton, she is a supporter of tough sanctions against Russia, which have a devastating impact on its economy, as well as on President Putin’s circle. At the same time, speaking about her personal attitude towards the Russian President, Clinton noted that she and Vladimir Putin always disagreed on their assessment of the current political situation. It is worth noting that, speaking in February 2014 to students in California, Clinton publicly compared Vladimir Putin with Adolf Hitler and his actions in Eastern Europe, to which the Russian president stated that “Ms. Clinton has not previously been particularly graceful in her expressions.” In other words, the personal relationship between Clinton and Putin, if not completely coincide with the current extremely cool climate in relations between the two countries, then at least the rejection of each other and the complete discrepancy on the political field are simply striking.
In addition, in 2008, then-future US Secretary of State Clinton commented on the words of then American President Bush Jr., who, in his words, “looked into the eyes of the Russian President and saw the soul in them.” Clinton, openly laughing at these words, said that since Vladimir Putin was a KGB officer, by definition he cannot have a soul. I wouldn’t be surprised if in the near future we hear from her lips that Putin is not a person at all. At the same time, in his public speeches, the candidate for the presidency of the United States tries to ridicule the Russian leader, which is already outright rudeness, which politicians of such a high level, in general, should avoid. I don’t think that her presidency will be able to positively influence the relationship between the two politicians, rather the opposite.
Hillary Clinton: "Strength and determination are the only language Putin will understand."
Speaking about Russia's policy towards the countries of the "near abroad", that is, the former Soviet republics, Clinton, at a human rights conference in Dublin in 2012, expressed concern that, in her opinion, the Customs and Eurasian unions, which Russia is actively promoting as new integration projects in the CIS may become a vehicle for the “Sovietization” of the region. According to Clinton: "There is no room for error. We know what the target is, and we are trying to find an effective way to slow down or prevent this process." Also, the then US Secretary of State criticized the “lack of democratic freedoms” in countries such as Russia, Belarus and Turkmenistan. Mrs. Clinton was particularly concerned about the sensational law “On Foreign Agents,” adopted in Russia in the summer of 2012, which the American politician called contradictory to the basic principles of freedom and democracy. At the same time, the presidential candidate conveniently kept silent about the existence of such a law in the United States since 1938. Another example of the “objectivity” of top US officials, to be sure.
Thus, Clinton denies Russia the right to conduct any kind of sovereign policy in the spaces of the former USSR, which, for natural reasons (including historical and cultural), Russia considers a zone of its interests, and any integration processes between the countries of the former USSR under the leadership of Russia one way or another they will be declared “Sovietization”, “anti-democratization” and similar terrible words. Thus, Clinton, narrowing the field of Russia’s sovereign policy to the limits of its state borders, denies Russia an independent foreign policy as such, which means that with the possible coming to power in the White House in 2016, Mrs. Clinton will not only be engaged in squeezing Russia out of Ukraine and from Crimea, but also from Transcaucasia and Central Asia, where, through orange revolutions, new puppet regimes will be created that will have to “lock” the cordon sanitaire around Russia.
Clinton has also spoken more than once about countering Russia in the ideological and information sphere, admitting at one of her speeches in 2012 the existence of an information war between the United States and Russia. At the same time, the then US Secretary of State noted that the United States was losing the information war with Russia, noting that Russia is an excellent English-language channel (apparently, Clinton meant the Russia Today TV channel).
Color revolutions in the post-Soviet space. The sanitary belt that the United States is striving to create around Russia is clearly visible. The policy of “consolidating what has been accomplished” will most likely be continued by Clinton.
What do experts say about the prospects for Russian-American relations if Hillary Clinton comes to the White House? Surprisingly, political scientists are almost unanimous on this issue: there will be further deterioration and a slide into even hotter phases of the new Cold War. Thus, the editor-in-chief of the information and analytical publication Geopolitika, Leonid Savin, notes that American “hawks”, dissatisfied with the too indecisive policy towards Russia under the Obama administration, are largely betting on Hillary Clinton. And since opinions about Obama’s “softness” are now quite popular in the United States, Clinton has a good chance of scoring points, including on the basis of anti-Russian rhetoric, which she, one way or another, will have to support with actions already in the presidency. The United States itself agrees with this opinion. Thus, a professor at Georgetown University and head of the Potomac Foundation, Philip Karber, said that Russian President Vladimir Putin needs to be very careful, since the likely candidate for the US presidency, Hillary Clinton, is much tougher towards Russia than President Obama. According to the expert, Russia needs to prepare for an even greater deterioration in relations with the United States now.
Thus, naive dreams that after Obama Clinton will come, with whom it will be possible to “negotiate,” remain just that, naive dreams, since the facts stubbornly speak to the opposite - in Clinton we have an enemy who is convinced that Russia, who has conceived to break the already rotten and bursting at the seams late Washington system of the world order, it is necessary to “put it in its place.” Therefore, most likely, there will definitely not be any need to talk about any serious compromises with the United States in the next 5 years, which means that the Cold War in one form or another will continue. Russia, fortunately, withstood the first attack from the United States, which was expressed in an artificial decrease in oil prices and the collapse of the Russian national currency, but there is no point in relaxing, because attempts to force Russia to turn away from its independent foreign policy course will continue.
There is still more than a year left before the presidential elections in the United States, and the whole world is already actively discussing who will become the leader of the strongest economically and militarily state in the world and what kind of foreign policy the future president will pursue. For Ukraine, the figure of the future US president is of utmost importance, since the next administration is expected to tighten its policy towards Russia. Despite the fact that the election campaign is dominated by issues of domestic policy - the economy, migration, freedoms, an assessment of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is also present in the speeches of almost all candidates. The names of the favorites will finally be known after the primaries in February-March 2016. Today in the LIGABusinessInform material - the current leaders of the race, their plans and opinions on the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Democrats
There are currently five people in the Democratic camp who want to take on the burden of leading the country, only two of whom have high approval ratings - former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders. The nomination of Vice President Joe Biden is also considered likely. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll from August 15-19, Clinton has the support of 47% of Democratic supporters, Sanders - 23%, Joe Biden closes the top three - 12%. The former Secretary of State's ratings have declined in recent months: in April, according to a CNN/ORC poll, 69% of Democrats were ready to support her, 11% for Biden, and only 5% for Sanders.
Hillary Clinton (photo - EPA)
Biography and views. 67-year-old Clinton has come a long way in American politics - she was the country's first lady (1993-2001), then a senator, and in 2008 she lost the election race to another Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and served as Secretary of State for four years. None of the other candidates in this election can boast of such solid experience.
In domestic policy, Clinton's program is focused on deepening health care reform, creating jobs and raising the minimum wage, the possibility of obtaining citizenship for illegal migrants, and combating climate change. On foreign policy, Clinton promised to protect Americans from traditional threats that come from Iran, Russia and North Korea.
As the frontrunner in the presidential race, Clinton has become the target of attacks from Republicans who are trying to hold her responsible for all the mistakes of the Obama administrations and her husband Bill Clinton, actively promoting stories about her using her personal email to send official mail, which violated the secrecy regime. One of the Republican candidates, Ted Cruz, called on Americans to evaluate her performance as secretary of state by whether the world has become safer during her tenure - an answer to this question is obvious, given the wars in the Middle East after the Arab Spring.
Recently, Clinton has been losing ground in the Democratic camp, and her chances of winning the presidential election are also fading. According to the latest CNN/ORC poll, conducted September 4-8, she could defeat billionaire Donald Trump in the election, while she trails such Republican candidates as Jeb Bush (47% to 49%) and Ben Carson (46% to 51%). %).
Ukraine and Russia. Clinton takes a hard line against the Moscow leadership, which she considers a threat to stability and peace in Europe. She is publicly opposed to Vladimir Putin and his dictatorial style of government. Clinton compared Putin's methods of trying to "protect Russians" in Ukraine to Hitler's policies in the 1930s. “The statement by President Putin and other Russians that they must go to Crimea, and perhaps further into eastern Ukraine, because Russian minorities need to be protected - all this is reminiscent of statements from the 1930s, when Nazi Germany constantly said that it must protect German minorities in Poland, Czechoslovakia and other European countries,” she recalled after the annexation of Crimea.
"I think we should provide more financial assistance to the government of Ukraine, because now they are trying to make a transition from an unprofessional, corrupt system to a system that operates according to global rules. They are working with the IMF and the European Central Bank. I think we should help Ukraine more defend its borders. New equipment, more training - the US and NATO have been very reluctant to do this until now. And I understand why. It is a difficult, potentially dangerous situation, but the Ukrainian army and ordinary Ukrainians who fight against the separatists have proven that they deserve a stronger support than we have provided so far,” Clinton said immediately after announcing her candidacy in April of this year.
Bernie Sanders(photo - EPA)
Biography and views. Over the course of several months, 73-year-old Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has become Hillary Clinton's main rival, uniting the left-liberal wing of the Democratic Party. Sanders was born to Polish Jewish immigrants in Brooklyn, New York. In his youth, he participated in various socialist organizations, the movement for the rights of African Americans, and opposed the Vietnam War and President Reagan's aggressive policies towards Central America. During perestroika, being the mayor of one of the cities in Vermont, he spent his honeymoon in the USSR. Sanders was elected to the US House of Representatives in 1991 and became a senator in 2007.
Sanders considers the ideal development model for the United States to be Scandinavian social democracy, with concern for the environment, high taxes for corporations and greater income equality than in the United States, and a minimum wage of $15 per hour. He calls the main goal of his presidency the fight against the decline in income of the middle class and the creation of jobs, a system of free higher education, including through the introduction of a tax on stock trading. The candidate supports women's right to abortion, the fight against global warming, restricting the right to bear arms, and advocates for the possibility of granting citizenship to illegal migrants.
Sanders unites around him Democrats who are disappointed in the Obama administration, those voters who consider Hillary Clinton to be a representative of the establishment, far from the interests of ordinary Americans. The rise in Sanders's ratings in recent months is also due to the support he received from Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is popular among Democrats. This brought intrigue back to the Democratic primaries.
Sanders criticizes the Bush Jr. and Obama administrations for the wars in Iraq and Libya, and considers it necessary to limit the use of US military forces abroad - in particular, he states that the fight against the Islamic State should be waged by Muslim countries. At the same time, he supported military operations against the regime of Slobodan Milosevic in Yugoslavia and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Russia and Ukraine. In an interview with Fox News in May, Sanders expressed his point of view regarding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: “The whole world must stand up against Putin. We need sanctions, asset freezes. We must completely isolate them politically. We must completely isolate them economically. We need to freeze Russian assets.” around the world. International corporations must withdraw investments from Russia."
Joe Biden(photo - EPA)
Biography and views. The nomination of Vice President Joe Biden has been actively discussed for a month now, but he himself has not made any statements on this matter. The 72-year-old politician has solid political experience - he was a senator from Delaware from 1973-2009, made a significant contribution to Barack Obama's election victory in 2008, and has served as vice president since 2009. The vice president's positions on domestic and foreign policy largely coincide with those of Hillary Clinton.
Ukraine and Russia. Along with John Kerry, Biden remains the person most involved in resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the Obama administration. His views on the conflict reflect the position of the administration - the use of tougher sanctions in the event of an escalation of the conflict, and the supply of lethal weapons is not excluded. "I believe that sanctions have had an impact and continue to be a useful tool in increasing the price that Russia pays for interfering in the affairs of a sovereign state. Despite what its leaders say, the Russian state is integrated into the global economy, and sanctions have a very powerful effect that will increase over time,” Biden said in an interview with the Den newspaper in November.
Republicans
Over several months of the election race, only one favorite has emerged in the Republican camp - construction magnate Donald Trump. According to an Ipsos/Reuters poll conducted September 5-9, 35% of Republican sympathizers prefer Trump, 12% - neurosurgeon Ben Carson, 8% - ex-Florida Governor Jeb Bush, 6% each are ready to vote for Senator Ted Cruz and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, 4% - Senator Marco Rubio. At the same time, back in mid-July, 18% of Republican sympathizers were ready to support Jeb Bush, and 17% of Republican sympathizers were ready to support Donald Trump.
Donald Trump(photo - EPA)
Biography and views. 69-year-old billionaire Donald Trump has already become one of the most colorful characters in the upcoming presidential campaign. In 1968, after graduating from business school, he began working for his father's construction company. The Trump Organization has built dozens of residential buildings, business centers, hotels, and casinos. In addition to the construction business, in recent years the businessman has tried himself as a reality show host and organized the Miss Universe and Miss USA competitions. A long career in business and successful reality television have given rise to Trump's style in this presidential race - self-confidence, bluster, scandalous statements.
Trump positions himself as a conservative Republican. He opposes abortion, Obama's health care reform, and gun control. Believes that global warming was invented by the Chinese to destroy American industry. Perhaps Trump gained the greatest fame for his attacks against migrants - he said that the United States had become a dumping ground for bandits and rapists from Mexico, so all illegal migrants should be deported. Trump proposes tax cut plan 1-5-10-15. According to it, Americans with incomes up to $30,000 will pay taxes at the rate of 1% of income, with income from $30,000 to $100,000 - 5%, income from $100,000 to $1 million - 10%, income in the amount of $1 million - 15%.
In the field of foreign policy, Trump promises to return the greatness of the United States and uses Ronald Reagan’s slogan “Make America Great Again.” He criticizes the nuclear deal with Iran - he believes that Obama entered into an agreement with Iran out of desperation, without even agreeing on the release of the Americans by the Iranian authorities. The billionaire said that once elected president he would send the US Air Force to bomb oil fields captured by the Islamic State in Iraq.
Ukraine and Russia. Trump has repeatedly said that he could get along with the Russian leader. "I think I would get along very well with Putin. I know there (in Russia, - ed.) a lot of people, two years ago I held a large-scale event in Moscow, it was a great success,” he said on August 14 at a press conference.
The candidate complained about Germany’s insufficient contribution to the resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian war and assistance to Ukraine, and noted that Ukrainian problems primarily concern Europe. "I don't like what happened in Ukraine. But this is a problem that concerns Europe more than us. They must take the main responsibility. We owe them (the Ukrainians, - ed.) help. But let the Germans and other countries directly affected by this, let them do it. We have enough problems in our country. We must rebuild our country," Trump said.
Later, he also stated that he was not concerned about the issue of Ukraine joining NATO and made another attack on the European ally: “I am not delighted with our confrontation with Russia over Ukraine, when Germany is dragging its feet, receiving oil and gas from Russia.”
Jeb Bush(photo - EPA)
Biography and views. Jeb Bush, 62, is the son of the 41st US President George W. Bush (1989-1993) and the younger brother of the 43rd US President George W. Bush (2001-2009). In his youth, he worked as an English teacher at a school in one of the villages of Mexico, where he met his future wife. This is an important factor - his Mexican wife, knowledge of Spanish, conversion to Catholicism in 1995 make him popular among Spanish-speaking Americans. Bush graduated from the University of Texas at Austin in 1976, after which he worked in a bank and real estate company, doing business with Cuban immigrants in Florida. At the same time, in the 1980s, he supported his father, who at that time served as Vice President of the United States, in the election campaigns. Bush's political career began with failure in the 1994 Florida gubernatorial election, but he was able to win in 1998 and served as governor until 2007. Since 2007, Bush has served on the boards of directors of a number of companies and was an adviser to investment banks Lehman Brothers and Barclays.
Bloomberg rates Bush as a more conservative politician than his father and brother. Bush advocates restricting the right to abortion and the death penalty, against same-sex marriage and restrictions on gun ownership. At the same time, conservative Republicans criticize him for his intention to introduce common standards in US school education and his moderate position on illegal immigration. Bush advocates limiting it by prosecuting companies that try to hire illegal immigrants, considers demonstrative deportations wrong, and supports facilitating the procedure for legalizing migrants with the payment of fines and taxes, but without the right to citizenship. In economic policy, he is a supporter of lowering taxes and raising the retirement age to 70, and opposes increasing the minimum wage. If elected president, he promises 4% GDP growth annually and 19 million jobs.
In the area of foreign policy, Jeb Bush is trying to convince voters that he will not repeat the mistakes of his brother as president. During the election campaign, he said that, like his brother, he would send troops to Iraq. However, after criticism of this statement (the war in Iraq cost the United States $1.7 trillion), he was forced to change his position.
Ukraine and Russia. Bush believes that the situation in connection with the Russian aggression against Ukraine is not even a regional issue, it is a matter of global importance: “The United States, in partnership with Europe, can create a deterrent that will bring stability not only to Ukraine, but also to the Baltic countries.” Bush promises to isolate Russia's corrupt political elite if he wins the election. He also calls on European NATO countries to invest more in defense.
Bush criticizes the Obama administration for its policy towards Ukraine. He has repeatedly noted that Russian aggression must be prevented preventively, and not act after the fact. “Who would doubt that Russia will continue to do whatever it wants if its aggression remains unanswered,” the candidate said during a tour of countries -NATO members in June of this year.
Scott Walker(photo - EPA)
Biography and views. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, 47, is the only presidential candidate without a college degree. He was born into the family of a Baptist minister and an accountant, and dropped out of college to work for the American Red Cross when the family experienced financial difficulties. In 1993, he was elected to the Wisconsin Legislature, then led one of the state's districts, and in 2010 became its governor.
Walker calls himself a fan of Ronald Reagan, opposes abortion, restrictions on the right to bear arms, and laws to combat global warming. He supports cuts to taxes and federal workers, state funding for private and religious schools. Walker admits the possibility of legalizing illegal migrants after paying a fine and probation, but believes that migration should be limited. Among Republicans, Walker gained popularity because of his conflicts with teachers unions over attempts to limit collective bargaining rights.
Walker is a harsh critic of Obama's foreign policy. He promises to cancel the nuclear deal with Iran - he believes that it will lead to a nuclear race in the Middle East and undermine the security of Israel and the US's Arab allies. He opposes the restoration of diplomatic relations with Cuba and is ready to send American troops to Syria to fight the Islamic State.
Ukraine and Russia. The governor of Wisconsin is not shy about calling Russia an enemy. "Vladimir Putin believes in the old Leninist principle of 'probing with the bayonet. You come across something soft - you move on. You come across steel - you stop. We need a national security system that will expose steel to our enemies. I would send weapons to Ukraine. I would work with NATO to put troops on the eastern border of Poland and the Baltics, and I would bring back the missile defense systems that we had in Poland and the Czech Republic,” he said during a Republican debate in August.
Ben Carson(photo - EPA)
Biography and views. 63-year-old neurosurgeon and author Ben Carson is the only African American running in the presidential race. The candidate is a shining example of a self-made man - he grew up in a poor family, but was able to become one of the best American doctors. Carson gained worldwide fame in 1987 when he performed the first operation to separate conjoined conjoined twins.
Carson is an opponent of same-sex marriage and restrictions on the right to own firearms. He harshly criticizes the health care reform carried out by Barack Obama, proposes introducing a single tax and eliminating the tax service.
Ukraine and Russia. In the field of foreign policy, the candidate advocates containing Russia. Carson supports the integration of Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, the provision of lethal weapons to Ukraine, the deployment of a missile defense system in Central Europe, and continued economic pressure on the Moscow authorities in order to limit the aggression of the Kremlin elite. He also states the need to review Russia's membership in the UN Security Council.
Ted Cruz(photo - EPA)
Biography and views. Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Florida Senator Marco Rubio play an important role in the elections and may join forces during the primaries. Both senators are the sons of Cuban immigrants and grew up in poor families. They are sympathetic to members of the conservative-libertarian Tea Party Movement, who advocate cutting taxes, reducing the powers of the federal government and against Obama's health care reform.
Senator Cruz, 44, was educated at Princeton and Harvard universities. In 1999-2000, he participated in the presidential campaign of George W. Bush as a legal adviser, in 2003 he became the general counsel of the state of Texas, and in 2012 - a US senator.
Cruz is campaigning under the slogan of fighting the “Washington cartel” of big business lobbyists and seeks to present himself as an anti-system candidate who defends the interests of ordinary Americans. He opposes abortion, restrictions on the right to bear arms, opposes raising the minimum wage, promises to repeal Obama's health care reform, eliminate the IRS and increase military spending.
Ukraine and Russia. The senator considers President Obama to be responsible for the end of US global leadership, which is why the positions of Russia and China have strengthened, Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons, radical Islam has intensified, and allies have turned away from the United States. Cruz notes that the West should provide military and energy assistance to Ukraine, and the Ukrainian authorities should get rid of energy dependence on the Russian Federation.
Speaking on the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea, Cruz said: "It is very unfortunate that over the past year, neither America nor Europe has lived up to their treaty and moral obligations to stand shoulder to shoulder with the Ukrainian people. We must today, right now, “At this very moment, begin supplying the Ukrainian authorities with defensive weapons.”
Marco Rubio(photo - EPA)
Biography and views. 44-year-old Senator Marco Rubio received a law degree from the University of Miami, was a member of the Florida House of Representatives from 2000-2009, and became a US senator in 2011. Rubio opposes abortion, restrictions on the right to bear arms, and cuts in defense spending. He supports tax cuts and immigration reform that would allow migrants to become citizens after a long probationary period.
Ukraine and Russia. In foreign policy, Rubio is considered a conduit for the influence of the Israeli and Polish lobbies. He considers jihadists, including the Islamic State group, to be the main threat to the United States. The senator advocates continuing sanctions against Iran and tightening sanctions against Russia, deploying a missile defense system in Poland and NATO military contingents in the Eastern European countries of the alliance. He also proposes to terminate trade agreements with Russia and provide Ukraine with weapons and loans. “The United States should not only impose sanctions against Russia, but also support the Ukrainian economy. This will help Ukraine resist Putin’s takeover attempts,” he wrote in an article for The Wall Street Journal.
"The real favorite will appear in February-March 2016"
An expert on US foreign policy, professor at the IIR KNU, told LIGABusinessInform which candidate is the favorite in the election race and what place the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict occupies in it. Shevchenko Sergey Galaka.
- Who are the favorites of the election campaign among Republicans and Democrats?
It's too early to say anything definitive, because in addition to Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, a number of unexpected figures have appeared in the election campaign. What real support the candidates have can be judged by the first primaries in February-March.
For example, the Democrats got Senator Sanders. There remains intrigue as to whether Vice President Biden will be nominated. His nomination could upset Hillary's cards.
Problem Hillary Clinton- one of the highest negative ratings. 45-46% of Americans have a negative attitude towards her. Critics call her insincere. But she has enormous experience, resources and will probably have the support of the current president. Obama will support the Clintons not only out of intra-party solidarity, but also out of moral obligation after the 2008 campaign, when they supported him. We should also not forget that Hillary's husband Bill Clinton, the American president with the highest IQ, is still highly popular, is involved in philanthropy, and he will actively support his wife.
Biden is a controversial figure, but many Americans regard him with sympathy, especially in connection with the grief that befell him - the death of his son from cancer. Now information is being circulated that before his death he allegedly urged his father to take part in the elections. If Biden pulls votes and there is a dirty campaign, then Hillary will be greatly damaged.
Bernie Sanders not as well-known on an all-American level as Hillary. He comes out with populist center-left slogans. But when they call him leftist, it’s funny. All American candidates are close to the mainstream. Sanders appeals to many people; both young people and minorities are ready to vote for him. But he doesn't have large campaign funds like Bush or Clinton.
For Republicans, until primaries are held in so-called swing states like Iowa, it is difficult to talk about favorites. Almost all Republicans are conservatives and come from the right flank - for limiting immigration, against abortion.
Behind Jeb Bush there are all those forces that brought his father and brother to power, there is a lot of money and corporate interests. The Republican establishment will look at how passable Bush is and who he can choose as a partner. So far, the candidate has not shined at all in the debates.
There is a lot of uncertainty associated with Donald Trump. He is seeking the Republican nomination, but if he feels rejected, he could run as an independent. Nominating a candidate who will take votes away from Republicans will strengthen the Democrats' position.
Trump is a paradox. Numerous failures of the Republicans and the absence of a clear leader in their camp led to the emergence of such a candidate. He offers very simple solutions - and many Americans like it. Trump wins the debate by a landslide. The man came from the construction business. His entire business career was contradictory - scandals, semi-adventurous investments, but fortune often smiled on him. He is popular because people who sit around, chew popcorn and drink Coca-Cola - they like his scandalous statements. But this is for the time being. He states that he wants the US to become a great country. And how to do it? Does he have a program? Trump is only playing to certain sentiments and fears, and this is not what can bring success. He has no foreign policy experience, and his statements about Putin are most likely improvisation.
A developed region like New York will not vote for Trump, but he will find his electorate in the American outback. But many doubt that this success will accompany him for a long time. A lot can happen before July 2016, when the candidates are announced at the Republican and Democratic conventions. Even Trump may have skeletons in his closet. I don't think he will hold the lead. But he can split the Republicans and deprive them of a chance to win.
- What will be the main themes of this election campaign?
The issue of illegal migrants from Mexico, abortion, and gender equality will be of great importance in the elections. Traditionally, unless there is a major war, the key issue for Americans in elections is the economy. If everything goes well with the economy, the Democrats have a chance to remain in power. If the economic situation worsens, then, as often happens in American election campaigns, the slogan “It’s the economy, stupid!” (a phrase from political strategist James Carville from Bill Clinton’s campaign office, which played a role in the 1992 election campaign) will come first. Clinton vs. George H. W. Bush, ed.). In the event of an economic downturn, Democrats will have much less chance. The Obama administration managed to lead the United States to economic growth, but how stable this is and how much the Chinese stock market failure will affect the situation is difficult to say.
- What place will the Russian-Ukrainian conflict take in this campaign?
The campaign may be affected by the escalation of the situation in the Middle East or in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. If there is no escalation in Donbass, I assume that the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will not be at the center of discussions. If there is an escalation, none of the candidates will be able not to react to this situation.
They will try to put tough pressure on Moscow with economic sanctions, but it is hard to believe that any of the candidates will agree to further aggravate relations with Russia. It is still a nuclear power, and as American President Nixon said, we must not forget that this is the only country that can destroy the United States - Moscow is currently using its nuclear status as the main argument in its dispute with the United States. On the other hand, Russia has no chance of playing a long game with the United States in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Only ecstatic supporters of the Russian world do not want to understand this: the US GDP is ten times larger than the Russian GDP, the post-war economic system was determined by the Americans. What is there to talk about?
Most Republican candidates support the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine. But I wouldn't delude myself. Even if a candidate advocates radical methods of helping Ukraine, once he becomes president, he will adjust his policies, bring them into line with reality, and take into account the interests of large American companies that are not happy with the sanctions. If there is no escalation in Donbass, I do not think that any candidate, having become president, will agree to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons.
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04.04.2016 12:12
The only stakes in the US presidential election is the maintenance of white Anglo-Saxon Protestant (WASP) power, which has never been challenged since independence. And if Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton are its guarantors, then the candidacy of Donald Trump foreshadows a deep shake-up of the entire political and electoral system, which still cannot be avoided when the Anglo-Saxons become a national minority.
Many candidates from different parties take part in the presidential primaries in the United States. But the media only talks about Democrats and Republicans, ignoring the rest, because they know that the electoral system is designed in such a way that the latter will never win these elections.
The presidential primaries or primary elections in the United States are a depressing spectacle, because the main candidates do not seem to realize that their scathing judgments and demagogic statements, if elected, will have echoes both within the country and abroad.
Despite the apparent greatness of the US President, his power functions are quite limited. For example, everyone knows that President George W. Bush himself could not govern the country, and others did it for him. And today it is also no secret that President Barack Obama is not able to subjugate his administration. In Ukraine and Syria, the Pentagon and CIA are waging a fierce internecine war. In reality, the main function of the White House is not to manage the security forces, but to appoint and approve the appointments of 14,000 high-ranking officials, of which 6,000 are appointed after the president takes office. Despite his appearance, the president is only the guarantor of the power of the ruling class, and therefore the president is elected not by the people, but by the ruling class.
Let us recall that according to the Constitution (Article 2, Part 1), the President of the United States is elected not by universal suffrage, as some media erroneously claim, but only by 538 representatives of the governors. The Constitution does not oblige governors to appoint electors according to the will expressed by citizens in the consultative voting process that precedes their appointment. Thus, in 2000, the US Supreme Court refused to invalidate the electoral votes appointed by the governor of Florida, although there was doubt about the wishes expressed by the voters of that state.
Let us also recall that “primaries” are not organized by political parties, as is the case in Europe, but by states and under the leadership of governors according to their own electoral system. The primary elections are designed in such a way that, in the end, the major parties will present a candidate for the presidency who would meet the interests of the governors. Such a system corresponds to the Soviet principle of “democratic centralism”. It allows you to reject any candidate whose opinion differs from the generally accepted one, or who might question the existing system, in favor of a “consensual” person. In the event that citizens who took part in the elections do not choose a candidate or choose one who does not comply with this system, the party conference can, if necessary, cancel the results of the vote.
Primaries in the United States, therefore, are not a “sign of democracy”, but, on the contrary, are a process that, on the one hand, allows citizens to express their will, but on the other hand, forces them to abandon their interests and support a candidate who system.
In 2002, Robert Dahl, a professor of constitutional law at Yale University, published a study according to which the US Constitution was created in 1787 with the expectation that the United States would never become a true democracy. More recently, two political science professors, Martin Gilens of Princeton University and Benjamin Page of Northwestern University, showed that the US political system has come to the point where all laws are made at the behest and control of the economic elite, and the opinions of ordinary people are never taken into account .
Barack Obama's presidency was marked by two crises. First there was a financial crisis, followed in 2008 by an economic crisis, the consequence of which was the complete cessation of the social contract. Until now, in the United States, people have been imbued with the “American Dream” - the belief that you can free yourself from poverty and become rich, enjoying the fruits of your labor. Now, with the exception of the “super-rich,” the best you can hope for is not to go down the drain.
The end of the “American Dream” primarily led to the creation of protest movements – the right-wing Tea Party in 2009 and the left-wing Occupy Wall Street in 2011. The basic idea was that the unequal system was no longer acceptable, not because it had exhausted itself, but because it had ceased to evolve and did not correspond to new realities. Tea Party supporters argued that to improve life, they should cut taxes and get out of it themselves, rather than wait for social protection. Those who supported Occupy Wall Street believed that, on the contrary, the super-rich should be taxed and redistributed what they appropriated. However, this stage was passed in 2015 thanks to billionaire Donald Trump, who does not challenge the system, but claims that he has taken advantage of the “American Dream” and that he is able to revive it. In any case, this is how citizens understood his slogan “America great again!” (America is great again!). Its supporters have no intention of tightening their belts to finance the military-industrial complex and revive imperialism. They expect that he will give them the opportunity to get rich, as has happened more than once in US history.
While the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street respectively supported the candidacies of Ted Cruz for the Republicans and Bernie Sanders for the Democrats, Donald Trump's candidacy threatens the positions of those who persevered through the 2008 financial crisis by locking down the system. That is, he is not against the super-rich, but against high-ranking officials and professional politicians, against the “hidden rich” who have high incomes but have never risked anything. If we compare Trump with European politicians, it is neither Jean-Marie Le Pen nor Jörg Haider, but rather Bernard Tapie and Silvio Berlusconi.
How will the governors act?
Who will they choose as president?
Until now, the American aristocracy, in the words of Alexander Hamilton, included exclusively WASPs, that is, White Anglo-Saxons Protestants. "P" originally stood for "Puritans," but over time the concept spread to all Protestants. Exceptions include the Irish Catholic John Kennedy, who promoted a peaceful solution to racial segregation in 1961, and the black Kenyan Barack Obama, who created the illusion of racial integration in 2008. But in none of these cases did the chosen one use his power and did not touch the ruling caste. Not one of them, despite promises, was able to do anything significant against the military-industrial complex, although the first promised general disarmament, and the second - nuclear. In both cases, their representatives Lyndon Johnson and Joe Biden were assigned to them as vice presidents in case of replacement, which was demonstrated after the assassination of Kennedy.
As for Donald Trump, his outspokenness borders on populism, as opposed to the classic manners of the “politically correct” Anglo-Saxons. And the coldness in Donald Trump’s relations with the President of the National Governors Association and the Governor of Utah Gary Herbert suggests that it will be extremely difficult for him to reach agreement with the ruling caste.
There are two options left - Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz. The latter has Spanish roots, but became intellectually close to Anglo-Saxon Protestants after his “conversion” to evangelical Protestantism. His appointment would make it possible to carry out an operation similar to the one that was carried out with the help of Obama, but this time not to favor blacks, but to demonstrate a desire to expand the rights of “Latinos.” Unfortunately, although he was nominated by an organization working simultaneously for the Pentagon and the CIA, he will not be able to take on a new guise, because this character is completely artificial. That leaves feminist Hillary Clinton, whose election will be a demonstration of the will to increase the role of women in society. But her inexplicable antics and bouts of hysterical rage are alarming. However, she is now under investigation for a very serious case, which will make it possible to control her through blackmail.
It is easy to notice that in this analysis I did not mention a single election program. And all because in local political philosophy it has no meaning. After the Commonwealth of Nations (Commonwealth) of Oliver Cromwell, for Anglo-Saxon political thought, common interests are a fiction behind which dictatorial habits are hidden. Therefore, candidates do not present a program for the entire country, but only state their “position” on certain issues, which provides them with the necessary support. Elected people - president, parliamentarians, governors, prosecutors, sheriffs, etc. – do not swear to serve the common good, they just promise to satisfy the largest number of voters. During meetings with voters, the candidate will never express his “vision of the world,” but he will certainly present you with a full list of supports and call on other “communities” to entrust him with their protection. For this reason, political betrayal in the United States is not that you defect to another party, but that you act against the interests of your “community.”
This approach leads to the fact that politicians do not strive to ensure coherence in their speeches, but only their connection with the interests they protect. For example, one might argue that fetuses are human beings and condemn abortion in the name of protecting human life, and then in the next sentence rant about the edifying role of the death penalty.
There is no difference between the policies pursued by evangelist Ted Cruz, feminist Hillary Clinton or Marxist Bernie Sanders. All three will follow in the footsteps of George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Ted Cruz refers to the Bible, and in fact to Jewish values set out in the Old Testament, and promises to revive the fundamental values of the “founding fathers” to the religious electorate. To revive a value system means to fulfill a moral duty, and money in this case will be “God’s gift to those who worship God.” Hillary Clinton is campaigning with women in mind and believes that everyone who became rich during her husband's presidency will vote for her. For them, restructuring the system is a family affair. Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, denounces the seizure of all the wealth by the 1% of the population and calls for its redistribution. His support is akin to a revolution, the fruits of which people would not mind taking advantage of, but they do not want to do it.
However, real change in the system can only happen if Donald Trump is elected. Despite his strange statements, he is the only clear-headed candidate. He is not a politician, he is a businessman. He does not know what issues he will have to deal with, and he does not have a single ready-made solution. Therefore, he will have to be content with making decisions depending on what connections he creates. It is not known whether this will make it worse or better.
It's strange that Bernie Sanders won in the same states as Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump in the same states as Hillary Clinton. Apparently, citizens unconsciously connect their future either with spirituality, which will allow them to atone for their sins and then get rich (Sanders and Cruz), or with work, which will provide them with material enrichment (Trump and Clinton).
In this situation, it is impossible to predict who will become president and what the consequences will be. But, guided by demographic data, it can be argued that this system will collapse on its own in the near future, because the Anglo-Saxons in it are becoming a national minority.
Thierry Meyssan
Translation
Eduard Feoktistov
, Robert A. Dahl, Yale University Press, 2002.
"", Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Perspectives on Politics, Volume 12, Issue 03, September 2014, pp. 564-581.
Donald Trump
Tram-para-ram) Forecasts, forecasts... “Elections, elections - candidates... are an entertaining thing, and the horoscope of one of the obvious contenders, D. Trump, has been in my database for a long time. (well for...
Tram-para-ram) Forecasts, forecasts... “Elections, elections - candidates... are an entertaining thing, and the horoscope of one of the obvious contenders, D. Trump, has been in my database for a long time. (well, who will Amnericans vote for on the Moon in Aquarius on November 8) I’ll start with a historical fact - our hero was born on the day of the exact total lunar eclipse on June 14, 1946, which means that the solar-lunar cycle and eclipses are largely decisive in his forecasts. I will separately take into account some important details - the ruler of the hour of birth (Jupiter reg. 4, 5 and 7.8), the ruler of the birthday - Venus (ruler 10 and 3) and Mars, the ruler of the year - just MARS took over our reign this year - we note November 8 election day will be Tuesday Mars day). Yes, and Mars has a connection with Asc. Along the way, a couple of important factors - Jupiter tramp is superstationary (speed 0 - a topic for research by the way). Uranus - let's call it "Trump's scourge" - the highest in conjunction with the Sun in the 10th house in opposition to the Moon (Uranus is the resident of that lunar eclipse) - will have a significant role in any forecasts of the hero. Solar - attention! Trump's solar (in New York) will take place on the 9th-10th lunar day - it is on these lunar days that the elections will take place. One of the exact aspects on June 14, 2016 was the sextile of the Sun with Uranus - a paragraph ago - a good vortex for Trump. Uranus on the MC and solar with Venus and Mercury at 11 - very good. Mars on social media 4-10 as the intensity of the struggle. In the solarium, as in other prognosis charts, one cannot dismiss intrigues and provocations from various sources - in the solarium, the Moon is on Neptune in the 3rd house, Asc at 12th in Leo. This moment fully reflects the lunar eclipse/full moon on August 18, which will take place on the axis of natal Mars in the 12th house, which can bring intrigue, or even crime, upon him. (he spoke about the role of eclipses in his chart). In char. In the directions, I will note the quintile connections of Venus (MC control) with Saturn and Uranus, and the same quintile of the MC direction to Jupiter. The exact tau-square of the personal axis to Pluto is also very characteristic. This whole aspect is at least exciting and can correspond to any outcome. In slow progression (I use Rudhyar) - there is no hiding that the Sun is on the Asc, and the progressive Asc is in conjunction with Jupiter (in orb 1gr - . The fact that Jupiter in transit by November will be in the middle of Libra is also symbolic. MC - semi-quintile to the Sun Next - the solar eclipse on September 1 in his 1st house - I will note the main sextile of the luminaries (new moon) to natural Mercury (exercises 1,2,10,11) - which is quite good.His native Lunar eclipse on September 16 - again I will note the marking of the luminaries in the favorable 60 and 120 to the natural conjunction of Venus and Saturn. The full moon closest to the elections is October 16 at 24 degrees Libra-Aries - the same 120 and 60 to the Sun! And attention - Uranus on the axis was shining as in his natal - blitzkrieg! New Moon before the elections 10.30 at 8 Scorpio 120 to Mercury (dispositor of the Sun and extr1,2,10.11). Mercury itself is in trine to itself. Result - Trump-para-ram - It’s impossible to talk about Trump’s chances in the elections being low, but it’s possible to talk about high ones. I didn’t look at H. Clinton’s horoscope, but why?))
Sergey Korablev
Hillary Clinton
date and time of birth - October 26, 1947 20:00, Sunday place of birth. Chicago, Illinois USA 41.5n...87.45w In her natal chart, the planets give a clear indication of the right to occupy such a post as president...
Astrologer's Forecast - Hillary Clinton
date and time of birth - October 26, 1947 20:00, Sunday
place of birth Chicago, Illinois USA 41.5w...87.45w
In her natal chart, the planets give a clear indication of the right to occupy such a post as the President of the United States
Valentina
Donald Trump
Hilary Clinton, with her harsh anti-Russian rhetoric even before the elections, is driving herself into a dead end, and at the same time the whole world - because the average American, who perceives “distant and terrible” Russia as an enemy b...
Astrologer's forecast - Donald Trump
Hilary Clinton, with her harsh anti-Russian rhetoric even before the elections, is driving herself into a dead end, and at the same time the whole world - because the average American, who perceives “distant and terrible” Russia as an enemy, will expect radical actions from her, and this could lead to a third world war. This opinion was expressed by a senior representative of the US Republican Party.
Of course, the Republicans are direct competitors of the US Democratic Party, from which the former “first lady of the scandalous Bill” is running for the post of President of America - playing for their candidate, the next representative of the Bush dynasty, they are doing their best to “sink” the competitor. But... alas, they cannot be denied the reliability of their argumentation, so inter-party squabbles in this case can only serve as a background.
So, Clinton has already become famous for her statements “KGB officers have no soul” (commenting on Bush’s words “I looked into Putin’s eyes and saw a soul there”), vowing “We will not allow the reunification of the USSR at any cost” and declaring the need to severely “punish Russia " If the election campaign (and for the Bushes and Clintons it is the most expensive and wide-ranging, which is recognized by world experts) leads to the election of “the wife who was cheated on with Monica,” she will be forced to fulfill (albeit not completely) the stated theses. “Clinton, who rejoiced at the destruction of Bin Laden and was very pleased with the death of Gaddafi, who allocated millions to opposition bloggers, supporting the “orange revolutions” in the CIS,” according to a senior Republican, “will increase confrontation.”
“She will, as they say, “wet” Putin, she will actively oppose Russia both from the inside, through working with the opposition, and create for [your country] a situation of being surrounded by hot spots and foreign policy problems,” he believes. “Moreover, she would have given lethal weapons to Ukraine, insisted on the introduction of a NATO “peacekeeping” contingent, frozen the assets without trial (there is such a possibility after 9/11) of Russian business, that is, she would have entered into a clinch [with Russia and Putin],” the American politician is confident. “NATO ships with Aegis will sail in [your] Black Sea, the US Air Force in NATO would be ordered to frighten [your] bombers on patrol, and in Europe it would organize something similar to the confrontation between the Warsaw Pact and NATO,” - he adds.
“And this is not Benghazi, when, having given the ambassador to be torn to pieces, Clinton “fell ill” and refused to report, here we will have to play openly - and she may well lead the situation to a direct military clash, whether in Ukraine, in international waters or “neutral skies” between USA and Russia,” the politician predicts. “Otherwise she’ll be eaten like Christmas pie,” he adds, “You won’t be able to play the female president factor here.” “In the end, a massacre will begin, and God forbid that nuclear missiles will not fly,” the politician hopes.
Let us recall that Hilary Clinton has already joined the prayers for the “dissenters”, which Russophobe Senator John McCain had previously reported. She also wrote about the decisive contribution of the Allies to the victory over Germany - the Red Army, according to Mrs. Clinton, is so, a horde of orcs that went for meat and created a “beautiful crowd.”
“To say that Mrs. Clinton hates Russia is to greatly soften it. It was her husband who broke Russia in the nineties, publicly mocking the always drunk Yeltsin. She wants the same triumph,” the press wrote. The media added that she “not only hates Russia and Russians, she has absolutely no idea what kind of country we have - in her understanding, we have remained in those same nineties, only Putin now sits above all this chaos. For her, Russia is a weak but arrogant rival, which can and should be destroyed as soon as possible.”
Let us remember that even Die Welt wrote: “less than three weeks before his death, Nobel Prize winner in literature Günter Grass warned of the threat of a Third World War.” In addition, a global survey of 1,395 American international relations experts conducted by Foreign Policy and CWM found - the majority of political scientists believe. that World War III will be between the USA and Russia.
It should be noted that leading Davos economist Margareta Drzeniek-Hanuz admitted that 25 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, “the world is again faced with the risk of a nuclear conflict between states.” And the former owner of the nuclear briefcase of the Soviet Union, ex-USSR President Mikhail Gorbachev said that “due to the unprecedented attack of the West and Europe on Russia, the world is on the brink of thermonuclear war.”
In addition, no one forgets that the world-famous scientist Naum Chomsky also said that there is reason to fear a “nuclear war between Russia and the United States.” Not only that, but the “hawk” and father of “Reaganomics” Paul Craig Roberts admitted “the likely outcome of the strategic threat that Washington is forcing Russia to face is nuclear war.”+
By the way, he officially stated that Hillary Clinton’s victory in the upcoming US presidential elections will mean war with Russia. “Everything suggests that the conflict between the countries “will be inevitable and, most likely, nuclear,” he believes.
Let us add that thanks to American propaganda, Russia took first place in the list of “enemies of the United States.” The results of a survey conducted by Gallup showed a sharp change in the attitude of Americans towards Russia - if before they “knew nothing” or considered the Russian Federation a “partner”, now for them Russia is an “enemy”.
Will Clinton turn out to be the famme who, on a difficult day, will plunge the world into a nuclear Apocalypse? We hope not. But now Madam candidate is doing everything to drive herself into this zugnzwang...
Less than a month has passed since Barack Obama took the oath of office for the second time, and American sociological services are already speculating who could run in the 2016 presidential election from both dominant parties.
Hillary Clinton, who resigned as Secretary of State on February 1, has the best ratings in the Democratic camp.. More popular among Republicans Florida Senator Marco Rubio, comes from a conservative Cuban immigrant family.
According to the results of a Public Policy Polling poll published on Thursday, Clinton is the undisputed favorite among Democrats: 58% of supporters of the current administration are ready to support her in the internal party primaries. Vice President Joseph Biden enjoys the support of 19% of Democratic voters, Senator Elizabeth Warren, elected to the upper house of Congress last year, expects 8% of the vote. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has the support of only 3% of Democrats.
However, according to the same data, if Clinton does not nominate her candidacy, Democrats are ready to support Biden instead. That would put him at 57%, Warren at 13%, and Cuomo at 5%.
In a wide-ranging interview with CNN in January, Clinton said she had absolutely no plans to run for president, but quickly added the caveat that her health would allow her to meet any challenge. "I'm looking forward to the next chapter of my life, whatever that may be," she said.
Clinton spoke about her health for a reason: on the eve of her resignation, she suffered an intestinal infection and a concussion after fainting due to dehydration. The issue of health, physical and psychological readiness of candidates often comes up during the presidential race. In 1972, Democratic vice-presidential candidate Thomas Eagleton's concealment of information about his treatment of suicidal depression with electric shock, which surfaced after his candidacy was confirmed, largely cost George McGovern his victory. And during the 2008 campaign, the absolute health of Barack Obama was tacitly, but quite obviously, contrasted with the difficult physical condition of the oldest presidential candidate in American history - 73-year-old John McCain, who, as a result of war injuries, could barely raise his arms, and in 2000 suffered facial surgery to remove melanoma.
By November 8, 2016, when Americans go to the polls again, Clinton will have turned 69 years old, and Joseph Biden will be preparing to celebrate his 74th birthday.
True, it is worth saying that advanced age sometimes played into the hands of the candidate. In 1984, then-elected Ronald Reagan (also 73 years old) responded to rival Democrat Walter Mondale's remark about his age: “I would like you to know that I am not making my age a topic of discussion in this campaign. Just as I am not going to exploit the youth and inexperience of my opponent for political purposes.” As Mondale himself later admitted, the mistake in this debate was fatal for him.
Many political scientists doubt that Biden will also run in the elections, so fears that in the end the second Obama administration will repeat the fate of the George W. Bush team, which approached 2008 without an obvious successor, are not unfounded.
Within the Republican Party, Rubio enjoys a distinct advantage over his potential rivals.
In the primary, he would have received 22%, well ahead of failed Vice President Paul Ryan (15%), New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and the former Florida governor, brother of President George W. Bush. Jeb Bush (both have 13%). Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (11%) and Republican Congressman Rand Paul (10%) who twice tried to achieve the Republican presidential nomination have even lower chances. Once considered GOP stars, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Texas Gov. Rick Perry are within the statistical margin of error at 4% and 3%, respectively.
Rubio is considered the candidate of the most conservative wing of the Republicans. Among voters who define themselves as very conservative, 28% are ready to support the senator. In this population group, Huckabee has 15 percent support and Ryan has 14 percent.
Rubio was once one of the stars of the Tea Party, a ragtag and largely conservative anti-system movement within the Republican Party that took shape in the months after Obama's election. Now, however, he has moved towards rapprochement with the moderate wing of the party. And on some issues, such as the “Dream Law” project proposed by Obama and supported by some Republicans, Rubio went even further, aligning himself with the Democrats. Political scientists have been vying with each other for years about the need for Republicans to build new relationships with the increasingly electorally significant “Latinos.” Addressing his supporters equally fluently in both Spanish and English, Rubio fulfills this task perfectly.
And at the same time, he voted against the unpopular “fiscal cliff” law among conservatives, which, in order to avoid increasing the tax burden on most working Americans, removed benefits from households earning more than $400 thousand a year.
Rubio, on whom the leadership of the “grand old party” openly relies (Gazeta.Ru wrote about this the day before), was this week called by Time magazine the “savior of the Republicans.”
Rubio himself, like Clinton, avoids directly answering the question about participating in the presidential election. “I truly believe that if I do a better job in the Senate, in a couple of years I will be in a position where I can make a decision about whether to run for re-election, leave politics and leave my seat for someone else, or run for office.” some other position,” Rubio said on Tuesday, answering questions from the BuzzFeed media platform. Ryan did not answer this question either, but Christie says more definitely: a second term as governor will allow him to accumulate enough experience to possibly run for president.
Looking forward to national elections Clinton absolutely crushes Rubio. 49% of voters are now ready to vote for her versus 41% for the Republican.
But Jeb Bush and Ryan have better chances in competition with the former Secretary of State. Both trail her by 6%, with Ryan having slightly higher support. Chris Christie's performance is even better; if elections were held soon, he would receive 42% of voters, and Clinton - 46%.
Biden's position is worse, although he is ahead of all his Republican rivals with the exception of Christie. He beats Rubio 48:43, Ryan 49:45, Jeb Bush 48:45. With Christie, his chances are still equal; everyone can count on the support of 44% of Americans.
For the general election, Rubio, on the one hand, is still too conservative; on the other, as evidenced by a December poll commissioned by the Politico newspaper, he is still little known to the general public: as many as 36% of Americans have not heard of him at all, and 17% have no no opinion.
"Gazeta.Ru"