Moscow State Transport University (MIIT)
Institute of Economics and Finance (IEF)
Department of Accounting and Statistics
discipline: "Statistics"
on the topic: “Statistical observation”
Moscow 2010
Introduction 2
The concept of “statistical observation”
and basic requirements for it 4
Stages of statistical observation 5
Program and methodological issues
statistical observation 7
Main types and organizational forms
statistical observation 14
Measurement errors and ways to eliminate them 19
Conclusion 23
List of used literature 24
INTRODUCTION
The word "statistics" (from Lat. status– state) in the Middle Ages meant the political state of the state. This term was introduced into science in the 18th century. German scientist Gottfried Achenwal. Actually, as a science, statistics arose in the second half of the 17th century. although statistical accounting already existed in ancient times. At the origins of statistical science there were two schools - the German descriptive (school of government) and the English school of political arithmetic.
Representatives of the descriptive school sought to systematize existing methods of describing states, create a theory of this kind of descriptions, develop their detailed diagram, describe them only in verbal form, without numbers and without dynamics, i.e. without reflecting the characteristics of the development of states in certain periods, but only at the time of observation.
Political arithmetic aimed to study social phenomena using numerical characteristics (measures, weights and numbers). By improving the arsenal of statistical methods, they contributed to the emergence of statistics as a theory of statistical accounting. This was a fundamentally new stage in the development of statistical science in comparison with the school of government, since statistics moved from describing phenomena and processes to their measurement and research, and the development of probable hypotheses for future development.
With the development of statistical science and the expansion of the scope of practical statistical work, the content of the concept of “statistics” also changed. Currently, this term is most often used in three meanings:
A branch of practical activity aimed at obtaining, processing and analyzing mass data about the most various phenomena public life;
Digital material used to characterize a particular area social phenomena or territorial distribution of some indicator;
A branch of knowledge, a special scientific discipline and, accordingly, academic discipline in higher and secondary specialized educational institutions.
Like any science, statistics has its own subject - the magnitude and quantitative relationships of mass social phenomena, patterns and relationships. The subject of statistics is characterized by the presence of mass phenomena and processes, their study in specific conditions of place and time, assessment of the quantitative side in close connection with the content of these phenomena and processes. A statistical population assumes the homogeneity of its constituent units and the variation of the characteristics being studied. Such a study is based on a system of categories and concepts that reflect the most general and essential properties, features, connections and relationships of objects and phenomena of the objective world.
THE CONCEPT OF “STATISTICAL OBSERVATION” AND BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR IT
Statistical observation is the first stage of any statistical research, representing a scientifically organizational accounting of facts characterizing the phenomena and processes of social life according to a unified program. However, not every collection of information is a statistical observation. We can talk about statistical observation only when statistical patterns are studied, i.e. those that manifest themselves only in a mass process, in a large number of units of some aggregate. Statistical observation is massive and systematic.
The massive nature of statistical observation is manifested in the fact that when conducting observation it is necessary to obtain data from the maximum possible number of the studied units of the population. Mass coverage of the population makes it possible to obtain the most accurate data characterizing the socio-economic phenomenon being studied and to identify existing patterns and relationships.
The systematic nature of statistical observation is as follows. That any research is carried out according to a pre-developed plan, which includes a number of issues related to preparatory work, direct collection of the necessary information and data processing.
The main goal of statistical observation is the collection of statistical information on socio-economic phenomena and processes to obtain general characteristics.
Basic requirements for statistical observation:
completeness of statistical data;
reliability and accuracy of data;
uniformity and comparability of collected data.
The reliability of statistical data is ensured by many conditions: the competence of the employee participating in systematic observation, the perfection of tools (forms, instructions), the interest or readiness of the object, etc. reliability includes both the correspondence of the data to reality and the technical accuracy or validity of the measurement.
The completeness of statistical data is ensured by the spatial coverage of the units of the population under study. Also, completeness should be understood as coverage of the most essential aspects of a phenomenon, since each studied phenomenon or set is quite complex in nature and has different characteristics. When studying the dynamics of a phenomenon, completeness involves obtaining data over the longest periods possible. This is extremely important for assessing emerging trends, establishing cause-and-effect relationships, and predicting changes in an object over time.
Each phenomenon or population studied in time or space must be comparable. To do this, it is necessary to use uniform cost estimates, uniform territorial boundaries, i.e. strictly observe unity in methodology.
STAGES OF CONDUCTING STATISTICAL OBSERVATION
The statistical observation process includes four stages:
Preparation of observation.
Carrying out a massive data failure.
Preparation of source data for automated processing.
Development of proposals for further improvement of methods for conducting statistical observation.
Each statistical observation, even if it is not carried out for the first time, requires careful, thoughtful preparation. The reliability and reliability of statistical information and the timeliness of its receipt will largely depend on its success.
The first stage - preparation of statistical observation - includes the implementation of various types of work. First of all, it is necessary to resolve programmatic and methodological issues of observation, the most important of which include:
identification of the target and object of observation;
determination of the composition of characteristics subject to registration;
development of documents for collecting initial data;
definition of observation unit and reporting unit;
selection of methods and means for obtaining initial data.
The second stage - mass data collection - includes work directly related to filling out statistical forms. The stage begins with the distribution of census forms and questionnaires. Forms, forms of statistical reporting and ends with their submission after filling out the so-called reporting unit to the relevant authorities that conduct statistical observation.
The third stage – preparation of source data for automated processing – ensures arithmetic and logical control. Based on counting control, the totals (by rows and columns) and the calculation of indicators are checked, and the presence of errors is clearly identified.
Logical control is carried out by comparing the obtained data with other known characteristics and indicators. It is possible to compare data for the past period for the same unit or for the same period with data for another observation unit. As a result, implausible cases are identified, i.e. Logical control detects possible errors.
The fourth stage is the development of a proposal for further improvement of the observation methodology (based on an analysis of the reasons that led to the incorrect completion of statistical forms). This is very important for increasing the accuracy and reliability of similar statistical studies conducted in the future.
Statistical observation- this is organized work to collect primary information about the mass phenomena and processes of social life being studied. Statistical observation is carried out in an organized manner and according to a pre-developed program and plan.
The initial stage of economic and statistical research is statistical observation. The use of objective and complete information obtained during statistical observation at subsequent stages of the study provides scientifically based conclusions about the nature and patterns of development of the object being studied.
The object of statistical observation is the population within which the observation is carried out. A unit of statistical observation is an element of the object being studied that represents the necessary initial information. The features and properties of units of the population are called signs. In order to obtain information, an observation program must be developed. The statistical observation program must contain a list of characteristics that will characterize individual units of the population.
The process of conducting statistical observation consists of the following stages:
1) programmatic and methodological preparation for conducting observations. At this stage, the goals and objects of observation, signs to be registered are determined, documents for data collection are developed, methods and means of obtaining data are determined, and more;
2) organizational preparation for observation. This stage implies the following types of work: selection and training of personnel; drawing up a work schedule for preparing and conducting statistical observation; processing materials that will be used in statistical observation;
3) at the third stage, the form, method and type of statistical observation are chosen. The most important stage in conducting statistical observation is the collection of observation data, the accumulation of statistical information;
4) control of statistical observation data;
5) at the last stage of statistical observation, conclusions and proposals for conducting statistical observation are made.
The results obtained during statistical observation are subject to control in terms of their reliability, completeness and the possibility of errors or inaccuracies.
There are the following requirements that statistical observation must meet:
1) observed phenomena must have value and express certain socio-economic types of phenomena;
2) the collection of statistical data should ensure the completeness of the facts that are considered in the issue being studied;
3) in order to ensure the reliability of statistical data, it is necessary to carefully and comprehensively check the quality of the collected objects - this is one of the most the most important characteristics statistical observation;
4) in order to create good conditions for obtaining objective materials, it is necessary to scientifically organize statistical observation.
2. Forms, types and methods of statistical observation
The main organizational forms of statistical observation include: reporting and specially organized observation.
The most important form of statistical observation is reporting.
Reporting– this is a form of statistical observation in which the relevant statistical bodies receive information from enterprises and organizations that carry out economic activities within a certain period of time. Information must be submitted in accordance with the procedure established by law for reporting documents.
Reporting documents must be completed based on primary accounting data and signed by the persons responsible
for the information provided. State statistics bodies approve forms of statistical reporting.
In commercial activities, reporting is divided into:
1) national – mandatory for all organizations and submitted in summary form to state statistics bodies;
2) intradepartmental - this reporting operates within departments and ministries. The following reporting forms are available:
1) standard reporting is called reporting that contains indicators that are the same for all enterprises, institutions of various organizational forms, as well as for other types of activities
2) if the enterprise has its own specific characteristics, then specialized reporting is introduced into this organization;
3) reporting provided by each enterprise at equal intervals is called periodic;
4) reporting that is received by statistical authorities as needed is called one-time reporting. Each organization has the right to choose which method to provide reporting data to.
Currently, there are a large variety of ways to receive statistical data to statistical authorities, for example, postal and urgent are provided by telegraph, teletype, fax and other methods. Specially organized statistical observation is the collection of information through censuses, one-time surveys and records. An example of specially organized statistical observation is the inventory of an enterprise.
Let's consider the following types of statistical observation:
1) if absolutely all units of the studied set of phenomena and processes are subject to examination, then this continuous statistical observation;
2) if part of the units of the studied set of phenomena are examined, then this incomplete statistical observation;
3) selective observation called observation in which the characteristics of the entire set of facts are given based on some of them, selected at random;
4) monographic examination – this is a detailed study and description of certain units of the population;
5) if that part of the population units in which the value of the characteristic being studied is predominant in the entire volume is subjected to survey, then this is called main array method;
6) data collection based on voluntary filling out of questionnaires by recipients is called questionnaire survey;
7) if observation is carried out continuously, and at the same time all facts and phenomena occurring in a state of change are recorded, then this observation is called current;
8) if observation is carried out irregularly, but only when required, this observation is called one-time;
9) periodic is an observation that is repeated at certain intervals (year, month, quarter, etc.).
Depending on the sources of information collected, there are:
1) observation carried out by the recorders themselves by measuring and with the help of inspection, counting and weighing the signs of the object being studied is called direct;
2) a survey is an observation in which a person’s answers to questions are recorded on a specific form;
3) when documenting facts, documents serve as the source of information.
Providing enterprises and organizations with statistical reports on their economic activity in a strictly established manner is called the reporting method. The type of statistical observation that involves providing information to the authorities that conduct the observation is called the in-person method.
If information is provided to the authorities by correspondents, then this method is called correspondent.
Providing documents that are filled out by the respondents themselves, and special workers only provide forms, is called self-registration method.
3. Program and methodological issues of statistical observation
Developing a plan for conducting statistical observation is the most important stage preparation of statistical observation. The plan must contain the formulation and solution of organizational issues, such as establishing the goals and objectives of observation, developing observation programs, defining the object and unit of observation, choosing the type and method of observation.
The purpose of surveillance is to obtain the main result of a statistical study.
In order to organize statistical observation, it is necessary to accurately establish the object of observation.
The collections of units about which statistical data must be collected are called objects of statistical observation. Before conducting a statistical survey of an organization’s activities, it is necessary to determine distinctive features and the most important features of the object being studied.
The primary element of the object of statistical observation, which is the carrier of certain characteristics, is called the unit of observation, and the primary cell from which statistical information will be subsequently obtained is called the unit of the population.
Requirements for the statistical observation program:
1) the observation program must contain all its main features, features characterizing those phenomena and processes that will be subsequently used in the development of statistical observation materials;
2) everything Control questions, included in the observation program, should be briefly but clearly formulated;
3) the degree of completeness and reliability of the data obtained during statistical observation depend on the quality of the program;
4) the issues addressed in this program must be presented in a logical sequence.
Statistical forms– these are specialized documents of a certain form that are intended for accounting and reporting. The statistical observation form contains a list of program questions and places to record answers to them. This form consists of: a title part, which includes the name of the statistical observation and the body conducting it, the date and name of the body that approved this form; the address part of the form must contain a record of the exact address of the unit or set of observation units, their subordination.
The form has various shapes expressions and names: census form, form, questionnaire, reporting form, questionnaire, etc.
Towards statistical form systems include: an individual form designed to record answers to questions from the observation program, but only for one unit of observation; The list form is intended for recording in it the answers to the questions of the observation program about several observation units. In order to ensure uniform interpretation of the questions contained in the forms, statistical guidance may be given. Statistical hint – a list of possible answers to the questions posed. Compiled for statistical forms instructions - this is a document that includes explanations and instructions for the statistical observation program, and also reflects the goals and objectives of the observation, information about the object and units of observation, the timing and timing of the observation. The instructions should be simple, concise and clear.
4. Organizational issues of statistical observation
Organizational plan– this is a document that should reflect the most important issues regarding the organization and conduct of upcoming events. It is compiled in order to successfully conduct statistical observations. It indicates: the bodies conducting observations, the time and timing of observation, the preparatory work that was carried out for further observation, the procedure for recruiting and training the personnel necessary to conduct statistical observation, the procedure for its conduct, the procedure for receiving and submitting materials, receiving and providing preliminary and final results. The question of the timing of statistical observation must be resolved, including the choice of season, period and critical moment of observation.
In order to choose a season, you need to make sure that the object being studied is in its usual state.
The start and end times of statistical data collection are called period, or term.
Observation time name the time to which the collected statistical information will be attributed.
Critical name the date as of which the information is reported.
Critical moment statistical observation is the point in time at which the collected data obtained in the process of statistical observation are recorded, for example, choosing the moment of the end of one day and the beginning of another.
The organization that prepares, conducts statistical observation and is responsible for its work is an observation body. The monitoring body must have clearly defined areas of activity, functions, rights and responsibilities for which it is responsible.
The place where observed facts are recorded and statistical forms are filled out is called the place of statistical observation.
5. Errors in statistical observation and control of observation materials
The most important task of statistical observation is the reliability and accuracy of the collected statistical information.
Accuracy– this is the level of correspondence of the value of any characteristic or indicator that was obtained as a result of statistical observation to its actual value. In the process of preparing and conducting a statistical study, in order to prevent the possibility of deviations or differences between the calculated indicators, it is necessary to provide and implement a number of measures. If such deviations occur, they are called statistical observation errors.
Materials collected as a result of observation are subject to comprehensive verification and control. They are checked from the point of view of completeness of coverage of all units of the observation population and the correctness of filling out documents and in the manner of logical and arithmetic control.
Logical control consists of comparing answers to interrelated questions of the observation program in order to identify logically incompatible answers.
Accounting control comes down to checking general and group digital totals and comparing them. Its task is to detect and correct incorrect results of numerical indicators.
Errors in statistical observation These are representativeness errors and registration errors.
Representativeness errors indicate the extent to which the sample population represents the population. These errors arise because only a part of the units of the population under study are observed, and this information cannot absolutely accurately reflect the properties of the entire mass of phenomena in the population.
Registration errors resulting from incorrect identification of facts can be divided into:
1) random - these are errors that can give distortions in both one and the other direction;
2) systematic errors arising from violation of the principles of unintentional selection of units of the studied population. Systematic errors are dangerous because they affect the resulting totals;
3) intentional errors arise as a result of deliberate distortion of facts.
6. Protection of statistical information necessary for conducting state statistical observations
Statistical information that is provided by legal entities, their branches and representative offices, and citizens engaged in business activities for the purpose of conducting state statistical observations, depending on the nature of the information contained in it, may be open and publicly available or classified in accordance with the law as restricted access.
The State Statistics Committee of Russia ensures, within its competence, the protection of statistical information, including information that constitutes a state or other secret protected by law, and information of a confidential nature, develops a list of confidential information obtained during state statistical observations, and the procedure for providing it to users.
The State Statistics Committee of Russia guarantees the confidentiality of the statistical information received from them on the forms of state statistical observation (primary statistical data) to reporting entities and provides an appropriate entry on the guarantee on the forms.
Providing statistical information contained in the forms of state statistical observation (primary statistical data), except for those related to state secret, Goskomstat of Russia, its territorial bodies and organizations under its jurisdiction to third parties is carried out with the written consent of the reporting entities that provided this data, except for cases provided for by law.
The provision of statistical information contained in the forms of state statistical observation (primary statistical data), which is classified as a state secret, is carried out by the State Statistics Committee of Russia, its territorial bodies and organizations under its jurisdiction in the manner established by the Law Russian Federation dated July 21, 1993 No. 5485-1 “On state secrets” (Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation, 1997 No. 41, Art. 4673).
7. Responsibility for violation of the procedure for submitting statistical information necessary for conducting state statistical observations
In accordance with Article 13.19 of the Code of the Russian Federation on Administrative Offenses, violation by an official responsible for the provision of statistical information necessary for conducting state statistical observations of the procedure for its provision, the provision of unreliable statistical information shall entail the imposition of an administrative fine.
The proceedings on administrative offenses of the procedure for providing statistical information necessary for conducting state statistical observations and the execution of imposed administrative penalties are carried out in the manner established by the Code of the Russian Federation on Administrative Offenses.
Reporting organizations shall, in accordance with the established procedure, compensate the Goskomstat of Russia, its territorial bodies and organizations under its jurisdiction for damages arising in connection with the need to correct the results of consolidated reporting when providing distorted data or violating the deadlines for reporting, in accordance with Article 3 of the Law of the Russian Federation dated 13.05. 1992 No. 2761-1 “On liability for violation of the procedure for providing state statistical reporting.”
8. Ways to improve statistical observation
A comprehensive study of the transformations taking place in society, economic and social processes using the method of a scientifically based system of indicators, generalizing and forecasting the paths of economic development, identifying reserves for increasing the efficiency of social production is the main task of statistical science at the present time.
In the concept of creating automated statistical information system ways and directions for solving such important problems as the development of a scientifically based system of statistical indicators and the scientific organization of statistical observation are considered.
The system of statistical indicators of socio-economic development is uniform for all levels of management and is provided by a uniform methodology for their calculation. It is designed to provide information that will characterize the state and development of economic, social, political and public life in all spheres and at all levels of government.
Obtaining the necessary data on the quantitative and qualitative values of certain indicators should change in accordance with the requirements of the statistical observation system.
Improving statistical observation will ensure an increase in the content, reliability and efficiency of reporting data based on statistical reporting, censuses, and one-time records.
Basic principles for forming a statistical observation system: statistical reporting must contain a system of reporting indicators and provide the ability to control the progress of planned programs; sample surveys, censuses, records, qualifications must provide quantitative values of statistical indicators for the purpose of their subsequent economic analysis.
The main purpose of the reporting indicator system is control over the implementation, implementation and achievement of target figures, government orders, compliance with established standards and limits.
Currently, the organizational structures of economic management, forms and methods of farming are changing, small and joint ventures and joint-stock companies are being actively formed, and the scope of application of rental relations is expanding.
In connection with these changes, statistical authorities need to develop and implement a program to improve the organization of statistical observation.
The program approach will allow for a targeted set of measures to improve the statistical observation system - from asking questions to developing specific reporting forms.
At present, some main directions for improving the statistical observation system have already been developed: this is the formation, on the basis of a system of statistical indicators of socio-economic development, of a list of the most important measures to monitor the progress of the implementation of economic reforms in the system of national economic management; methodology of the most important indicators taken into account when conducting censuses of one-time, sample and monographic surveys.
Let's consider the sequence of stages in the development and implementation of improving statistical observation.
1. It is necessary to determine a list of indicators that will characterize economic processes for continuous observation, as well as a list of indicators and objects of statistical observation; information on them can be obtained through selective observation and one-time recording
2. Development and implementation of reporting forms for continuous observation, as well as programs and forms of selective observation and mathematical apparatus for distributing sample observation data to the entire set of objects.
3. Development of a system of qualification reporting and the necessary mathematical apparatus for distributing the data of qualification reporting to the entire set of objects.
4. Training of economists in the methods of sample, monographic surveys and qualification reporting.
Statistical observation- this is massive (it covers big number cases of manifestation of the phenomenon under study to obtain truthful statistical data) systematic (carried out according to a developed plan, including issues of methodology, organization of collection and control of the reliability of information), systematic (carried out systematically, either continuously or regularly), scientifically organized (to increase the reliability of data, which depends on the observation program, the content of questionnaires, the quality of preparation of instructions) observation of the phenomena and processes of socio-economic life, which consists of collecting and recording individual characteristics for each unit of the population.
Stages of statistical observation
- Preparation for statistical observation(solving scientific, methodological, organizational and technical issues).
- determination of the purpose and object of observation;
- determining the composition of features to be registered;
- development of documents for data collection;
- selection and training of personnel to conduct surveillance;
2. Collection of information
- direct filling of statistical forms (forms, questionnaires);
Statistical information is primary data on the state of socio-economic phenomena, formed in the process of statistical observation, which is then systematized, summarized, analyzed and generalized.
The composition of information is largely determined by the needs of society at the moment. Changes in forms of ownership and methods of regulating the economy led to changes in the policy of statistical observation. If previously information was only available government agencies, then now it is in most cases publicly available. The main consumers of statistical information are the government, commercial structures, international organizations and the public.
Specially organized surveillanceIt consists of obtaining data that, for one reason or another, was not included in the reporting or to verify reporting data. Represents the collection of data through censuses and one-time counts.
Register surveillanceIt is based on maintaining a statistical register, with the help of which continuous statistical accounting is carried out for long-term processes that have a fixed beginning, stage of development and a fixed end.
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Forms of statistical research |
Types of statistical observations | Methods for obtaining statistical information | |
| by data recording time | by completeness of coverage of population units | ||
| Statistical reporting | Current observation | Continuous observation | Direct observation |
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Specially organized observation:
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Intermittent observation:
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Anecdotal observation:
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Documentary |
| Register surveillance |
|
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Types of statistical observation
Statistical observations are divided into types according to the following criteria:
- by time of data recording;
- by completeness of coverage;
Types of statistical observation by registration time:
Ongoing (continuous) surveillance— carried out to study current phenomena and processes. Facts are recorded as they occur. (registration family marriages and divorces)
Intermittent observation- carried out as necessary, while temporary gaps in data recording are allowed:
Based on the completeness of coverage of population units, the following types of statistical observation are distinguished:
Continuous observation— represents the collection and receipt of information about all units of the population being studied. It is characterized by high material and labor costs and insufficient information efficiency. Used in population censuses, when collecting data in reporting format covering large and medium-sized enterprises different forms property.
Partial observation- based on the principle of random selection of units of the population being studied, while all types of units present in the population must be represented in the sample population. It has a number of advantages over continuous observation: reduction of time and money costs.
Continuous observation is divided into:- Selective observation- based on a random selection of units that are observed.
- Monographic observation— consists of examining individual units of a population characterized by rare qualitative properties. An example of monographic observation: characteristics of the work of individual enterprises to identify shortcomings in work or development trends.
- Main Array Method- consists of studying the most significant, largest units of the population, which, according to their main characteristic, have the largest share in the population under study.
- Momentary Observation Method— consists of conducting observations at random or constant intervals of time with notes on the state of the object under study at one time or another.
Methods of statistical observation
Ways to obtain statistical information:
Direct statistical observation- observation in which the registrars themselves, by direct measurement, weighing, and counting, establish the fact to be recorded.
Documentary observation- based on the use of various types of accounting documents.
Includes reporting observation method - in which enterprises submit statistical reports on their activities in a strictly mandatory manner.
The following types of survey exist:Survey- consists of obtaining the necessary information directly from the respondent.
Expeditionary— registrars receive the necessary information from the persons being interviewed and record it in the forms themselves.
Self-registration method— the forms are filled out by the respondents themselves, the registrars only hand out the forms and explain the rules for filling them out.
Correspondent— information is provided to the relevant authorities by a staff of voluntary correspondents.
Questionnaire— information is collected in the form of questionnaires, which are special questionnaires, convenient in cases where high accuracy of results is not required.
Private- consists of providing information to the relevant authorities in person.
Errors in statistical observation
Information obtained during statistical observation may not correspond to reality, and the calculated values of indicators may not correspond to actual values.
The discrepancy between the calculated value and the actual value is called observation error.
Depending on the causes of occurrence there are distinguished registration errors and representativeness errors. Registration errors are typical for both continuous and non-continuous observations, and representativeness errors are typical only for non-continuous observations. Registration errors, like representativeness errors, can be random and systematic.
Registration errors- represent deviations between the value of the indicator obtained during statistical observation and its actual value. Registration errors can be random (the result of random factors - for example, strings are mixed up) and systematic (they appear constantly).
Representativeness errors- arise when the selected population does not accurately reproduce the original population. They are characteristic of incomplete observation and consist in the deviation of the value of the indicator of the studied part of the population from its value in the general population.
Control methods:Random errors- are the result of random factors.
Systematic errors- always have the same tendency to increase or decrease the indicator for each observation unit, as a result of which the value of the indicator for the population as a whole will include the accumulated error.
- Counting (arithmetic) - checking the correctness of an arithmetic calculation.
- Logical - based on the semantic relationship between features.
This is a preliminary stage of statistical research, which is a systematic, scientifically organized accounting (collection) of primary statistical data on mass socio-economic phenomena and processes.
Not every data collection can be called statistical observation. Observation will be statistical, firstly, when it is accompanied by the registration of the studied facts in the appropriate accounting documents for their further generalization, and secondly, when it is of a mass nature. This ensures coverage of a significant number of cases of manifestation of a particular process, necessary and sufficient to obtain data that relate not only to individual units of the population, but also to the entire population as a whole.
Statistical observation must meet a number of important requirements:
a) be carried out continuously and systematically;
b) accounting of mass data should be such that not only the completeness of the data is ensured, but also their constant change is taken into account;
c) the data must be as reliable and accurate as possible;
d) the phenomena under study must have not only scientific, but also practical value.
The collection of statistical data can be carried out both by state statistics bodies, research institutes, other government agencies, and by economic services of banks, exchanges, enterprises, and firms. Only in this case do researchers receive reliable and sufficiently diverse statistical information that allows them to comprehensively study socio-economic phenomena.
Stages, forms, types and methods of statistical observation
Statistical observation (collection of primary statistical material) consists of three main stages:
preparation of statistical observation;
organization and production of surveillance;
control of the received primary data.
On preparation stage In statistical observation, the goal is determined, the object and unit of observation are established, and tools and an observation program are developed. General purpose of statistical observation is to obtain reliable information about trends in the development of phenomena and processes for subsequent management decisions. It must be specific and clear. A vaguely defined goal can lead to the collection of the wrong data that is necessary to solve a specific problem.
The goal defines the object of statistical observation. Observation object there is a certain statistical population under study, either individuals (population, employees), or legal entities (enterprises, firms, educational establishments), or physical units(production equipment, means of transportation and transportation, residential buildings), i.e. the statistical population under study consists of individual units.
This is the primary element of the object of statistical observation, which is the carrier of the characteristics that are subject to registration. Indication of the most important features allows us to establish boundaries of the study population. For example, if it is necessary to conduct a study of the profitability of printing enterprises, then it is necessary to determine the forms of ownership of these enterprises, the organizational and legal basis, the number of employees of the enterprise, the volume of product sales, i.e. something that distinguishes both state and non-state enterprises, and small and large enterprises. Only in this case will we receive reliable statistical information.
The observation unit must be distinguished from the reporting unit. The reporting unit is the unit from which the reporting data comes. It may or may not coincide with the unit of observation.
Justification of the goal, selection of observation units, reporting units, selection of essential features, period of time for statistical observation, reporting forms are set out in the statistical observation program. Usually surveillance program name a list of questions that are subject to registration during observation. In order for an observation program to be scientifically substantiated and correctly designed, it must meet the following requirements:
clear and specific formulation of the main purpose of observation;
determination of the place and time of observation, where the critical moment is determined (the date or time interval at which the registration of signs is carried out) and the period (the period for filling out the statistical form);
identifying a number of the most significant features of the object of observation;
a comprehensive definition of the type, main features and properties of the phenomenon being studied;
the questions formulated in the program should not be ambiguous;
compliance with the logical principle of the sequence of questions;
inclusion in the program of control questions to verify the collected statistical data;
a combination of closed and open questions of the program.
The program is drawn up in the form of a document, the so-called statistical form, which ensures uniformity of information received from each reporting unit. The form has a title part (information about those who conduct observation) and an address part (address and subordination of the reporting unit). The program has an application - instructions ( statistical observation tools), which determines the procedure for conducting observation and the procedure for filling out the reporting form.
At the second stage, the most important organizational issues of statistical observation are resolved. They consist in choosing organizational forms of observation, types of observation and methods of obtaining statistical information that correspond to the goals and objectives of a specific statistical observation.
All the variety of forms, types and methods of observation can be presented as follows.
According to the form of organization of statistical observation: reporting; specially organized statistical survey - census; registers.
By type of statistical observation: a) by time of registration of facts (current or continuous; discontinuous - periodic, one-time); b) according to the coverage of population units (continuous; non-continuous - the main array, selective, monographic).
By methods of obtaining statistical information: direct observation; documentary method; survey - expeditionary, questionnaire, turnout, correspondent, self-registration.
The main form of statistical observation is reporting. If primary accounting ( primary accounting document) registers various facts, then the reporting is a generalization of primary accounting.
An official document, which is signed by persons responsible for the provision and reliability of the collected information, and is approved by state statistics bodies. In addition to annual reporting, there may be daily, weekly, biweekly, monthly and quarterly reporting. Reporting can be submitted by mail, telegraph, teletype, or fax.
A census can be classified as a specially organized statistical observation. In practice, a census of population, material resources, green spaces, unfinished construction projects, equipment, etc. is carried out.
An observation repeated at regular intervals, the purpose of which is not only to determine the size and composition of the population under study, but also to analyze quantitative changes in the period between two surveys. Of all the censuses, the most famous are the population censuses.
A form of continuous statistical observation is register observation(register), the objects of which are long-term processes that have a fixed beginning, stage of development and fixed completion time. The register is based on a system for tracking the status of variables and constant indicators. In statistical practice there is a distinction population registers And business registers. Currently in Russia there is a Unified State Register of Enterprises of All Forms of Ownership (USRPO), the information fund of which contains: register code, information about territorial and industry affiliation, form of subordination, type of ownership, reference information and economic indicators (average number of employees; funds, allocated for consumption; residual value of fixed assets; balance sheet profit or loss; authorized capital). When closing an enterprise within ten days, the liquidation commission informs the register maintenance service about this.
Let us briefly consider the types of statistical observation based on the time of registration of facts. Continuous (current) statistical observation- is a systematic recording of facts or phenomena as they become available in order to study their dynamics. For example, civil registration (births, marriages, deaths), registration by insurance companies of all accidents and other adverse events as they occur.
Species continuous monitoring are one-time and periodic. The first is a one-time continuous observation to collect quantitative characteristics of a phenomenon or process at the time of its study. Periodic observation is carried out at certain intervals using similar programs and tools. For example, periodic research of passenger flows in public transport, periodic registration of producer prices for individual goods (once a month or quarter).
Based on the coverage of population units, statistical observation can be continuous or incomplete. Continuous observation covers all units of the population under study (for example, a general population census). In its turn, partial observation covers only part of the population under study. Depending on how this part is selected, non-continuous observation can be divided into selective (based on the principle of random selection), the main array method (the most significant or largest units of the studied population are studied) and the so-called monographic observation (a detailed study of individual units of the studied population in order to identify emerging trends).
As for the methods of obtaining statistical information (methods of statistical observation), there are three main methods: direct observation, documentary observation and survey.
A fairly reliable source of data is direct observation when it is possible to establish a fact subject to registration. But this method requires significant labor costs and the availability of all necessary conditions. It is most often used when monitoring the commissioning of construction projects.
Another reliable method is documentary, based on the use of various accounting documents (invoices, complaints, etc.) as a source of information and helping to obtain accurate information.
An observation method in which the source of information is the words of respondents is called a survey. Its varieties are: oral (expeditionary), questionnaire, correspondent, turnout survey and self-registration.
An oral survey can be either direct (direct communication between the enumerator and the respondent) or indirect (for example, by telephone).
At questionnaire method a certain number of respondents receive special questionnaires either in person or through printed media. This type of survey is used in studies that require indicative results that do not claim to be highly accurate (studying public opinion).
The in-person method is used in continuous observation when personal presence is necessary (registration of marriages, divorces, births, etc.).
At correspondent method information is provided by a staff of voluntary correspondents, as a result of which the material received is not always of high quality.
Finally, when self-registration method The forms are filled out by the respondents themselves, and the enumerators provide advice and collect the forms. In statistical practice different kinds statistical observations can be combined, complementing each other.
At the third stage, collected statistical material must pass control. As practice shows, even with clearly organized statistical observation there are errors and errors that require correction. Therefore, the purpose of this stage is both counting and logical control of the received primary data. The discrepancy between the calculated and actual values of the studied quantity in statistics is called observation error. Depending on the reasons for their occurrence, registration errors and representativeness errors are distinguished.
Account control is used to identify errors, especially to check totals. In addition to counting, logical control is also used, which can cast doubt on the correctness of the data obtained, since it is based on the logical relationship between the signs. For example, during a population census, the obtained fact that a five-year-old child has a secondary education is called into question, and in this case it is clear that an error was made when filling out the form.
If registration errors are characteristic of any observation (continuous and incomplete), then representativeness errors- only partial observation. They characterize the discrepancies between the values of the indicator obtained in the population being surveyed and its value in the original (general) population. Representativeness errors can also be random or systematic. Random errors arise if the selected population does not completely reproduce all the characteristics of the general population and the magnitude of these errors can be estimated. Systematic errors of representativeness can arise if the very principle of selecting units from the original population is violated. In this case, the completeness of the collected data is checked, arithmetic control of the accuracy of the information is carried out to determine its reliability, and the logical relationship of the indicators is checked.
Statistical observation ends with a control check of the collected data.
1. The concept of statistical observation, stages of its implementation.
2. Basic organizational forms of statistical observation. Types and methods of statistical observation.
3. Program and methodological issues of statistical observation.
4. Organizational issues of statistical observation.
5. Errors in statistical observation.
1. The concept of statistical observation and the stages of its implementation.
Statistical observation - this is a massive, systematic, scientifically organized observation of the phenomena of social and economic life, which consists of recording selected characteristics for each unit of the population.
Statistical observation is carried out by state statistics bodies, research institutes, economic services of banks, exchanges, and firms.
The process of conducting statistical observation includes the following stages:
1) preparation of observation;
2) conducting mass data collection;
3) preparing data for automated work;
4) development of proposals for improving statistics. observations.
First stage includes:
Determination of the purpose and object of observation, the composition of signs to be registered;
Development of documents for data collection;
Selecting a reporting unit, methods and means of obtaining data, etc.
Second phase includes work on filling out statistical forms.
On third stage the collected data is subject to arithmetic and logical control.
On fourth stage produced:
Analysis of the reasons that led to the incorrect filling of stats. forms;
Development of proposals to improve surveillance.
2. Basic organizational forms of statistics. Observations. Types and methods of stat. Observations.
Statistical observation is carried out in 2 forms:
1) by providing reports;
2) by conducting specially organized statistics. observations.
Reporting is an organized form of statistical observation in which information is received in the form of mandatory reports within certain deadlines and in approved forms. Reporting as a form of statistical observation is based on primary accounting and is its generalization.
Primary accounting is a registration of various facts (events, processes, etc.) produced as they occur and, as a rule, on a primary document.
The management of statistical reporting and its organization are entrusted to the state statistics bodies. All forms of statistical reporting are approved by state statistics bodies. Submitting reports on unapproved forms is considered a violation of reporting discipline, for which heads of enterprises and departments are held accountable.
The list of reporting is a list of reporting forms indicating their most important details.
Reporting program- system of performance indicators of a trading enterprise.
General reporting- this is reporting containing the same data for a certain sector of the national economy and for enterprises (institutions, etc.) of the entire national economy.
IN specialized reporting contains specific indicators of individual industries, agriculture, etc.
Based on the period of time for which reporting is presented, and its duration, a distinction is made between current and annual reporting. If information is presented for the year, then such reporting is called annual. Reporting for all other periods within less than a year, respectively quarterly, monthly, weekly, etc., is called current.
According to the method of presentation, reporting is distinguished urgent, when all information is submitted by teletype, telegraph, and postal
In commercial practice reporting is subdivided on the:
1) nationwide - provided both to a higher organization and to the relevant state bodies. statistics;
2) intradepartmental - which is submitted only to higher trade authorities;
3) current - presented during the year;
4) annual - the most complete in terms of the composition of displayed indicators.
Specially organized statistical observation- represents the collection of information through censuses, one-time records and surveys. For example: population census, census of equipment, remaining materials, etc.
Types of statistical observation differ in the time of data recording and in the degree of coverage of units of the population under study.
By time of data recording distinguish:
Continuous (ongoing) monitoring;
Intermittent (periodic) observation.
Intermittent observation is divided into:
Periodic;
One-time.
Current (continuous) is an observation that is carried out systematically. In this case, facts are recorded as they occur. (For example, civil registration). During ongoing observation, a significant gap cannot be allowed between the moment the fact occurs and the moment it is recorded.
Intermittent (periodic) called an observation that is repeated at certain intervals. (For example, annual livestock censuses conducted as of January 1).
One-time (one-time) observation carried out as needed, from time to time, without observing strict frequency or even once. (For example, studying customer opinions about the quality of goods).
According to the degree of coverage, they are distinguished:
Solid
Not continuous stat. observation.
Solid is an observation in which all units of the population being studied are examined without exception. (For example, the All-Union Population Census of 1989). Through continuous observation, reports are obtained from enterprises and institutions.
Not continuous is called such an observation in which predetermined statistical units are examined. totality. (For example, studying trade turnover and prices in city markets). The main advantage: this type of observation increases the efficiency of statistics. material.
Depending on the research task and character object not continuous observation could be:
Selective;
Main array method;
Monographic.
Selective is an observation in which the characteristics of the entire set of facts are given based on some of them, selected at random. It is widely used in various sectors of the national economy: in industry - to control product quality; in trade - to study the demand of the population, etc.
Main Array Method consists in the fact that that part of the population units in which the value of the studied characteristic is predominant in the entire volume is subjected to examination. (Thus, monitoring of the work of city markets has been organized. Of all the cities for observation, 308 cities- the largest industrial and cultural centers, where over 50% of the total urban population lives. The turnover of markets in these cities accounts for over 60% of the total turnover of market trade).
Monographic survey- this is a detailed, in-depth study and description of individual units of the totality that are characteristic in some respect. It is carried out with the aim of identifying existing or emerging trends in the development of this phenomenon.
Stat methods observations.
Stat. information can be obtained in various ways, the most important of which are:
Direct observation;
Documentary accounting;
Direct is an observation in which the registrars themselves, by measuring, weighing or counting, establish the fact to be recorded, and on this basis make entries in the observation forms. (For example, when taking a census of equipment, information is entered into a form based on a personal inspection of the machines, etc.)
Documentary method observation is based on the use of statistics as a source. information from various types of accounting documents.
Survey is a method of observation in which answers to the questions being studied are recorded from the words of the interviewee.
The following types of surveys are used in statistics:
Oral (expeditionary);
Self-registration;
Correspondent;
Questionnaire;
Appearance.
At oral questioning specially trained workers (counters, recorders) receive the necessary information based on a survey of relevant persons and themselves record the answers in the observation form.
At self-registration the forms are filled out by the respondents themselves, and the enumerators give them the questionnaire forms, explain the rules for filling them out, and then collect them.
Correspondent method consists in the fact that information is provided to the bodies conducting surveillance by their correspondents. This method does not require large expenses, but it does not provide high quality materials.
Questionnaire method involves collecting information in the form of questionnaires. This method of collecting information is used for incomplete observation and is used in surveys where high accuracy is not required. It is used when conducting sociological surveys.