Isaac Asimov - famous science fiction writer, author of many popular books in this genre. His statements about the future shocked the modern generation, because they come true one after another.
Back in 1964, a world exhibition of the latest technologies at that time was held in New York, and journalists from The New York Times asked the opinion of a futurist writer about what the technologies of the future would be. What he said then only brought a condescending smile on the faces of most people. It would be interesting to see their reaction if they saw that all these inventions really exist in 2015.
1. Smartphones
Isaac Asimov predicted that telephones would become portable, they would have a screen, and with the help of satellites it would be possible to contact a subscriber anywhere in the world. He also predicted that a person of the future will be able to see who he is talking to on the screen, and on it it will be possible to view documents, photographs, and read books.
2. Flat TVs
According to Azimov, flat-panel wall-mounted TVs should appear in the future.
3. 3D cinema
The writer predicted that films would become voluminous both in cinemas and on regular televisions.
4. Timers on equipment
Azimov said that all equipment will be equipped with timers that can count the time for cooking food or coffee.
5. Semi-finished products
Freezers will be filled with half-cooked food that will be reheated to create a complete lunch or dinner. But cooking will not disappear and people will continue to use kitchens.
6. Wireless technologies
The writer predicted that almost all equipment would work wirelessly.
7. Robotics and computerization
Robots and computers will be controlled by people and the programs embedded in them. Computers will become so widespread that they will become part of the educational process.
8. Mars exploration
The science fiction writer did not predict that by 2015 people would land on Mars, but he was sure that machines would do it for us, and he turned out to be right. But at the same time, he was confident that people would plan manned expeditions to the Red Planet.
9. Solar power plants
At a time when no one had ever heard of such a thing as solar panels, Azimov predicted the emergence of entire solar power plants.
10. Internet and websites
According to the science fiction writer, in the future there will be a bottomless repository of information, which everyone will be able to access by connecting to the World Wide Web.
All these predictions turned out to be surprisingly accurate. But there were, of course, those that did not come true, for example, about flying transport and underground cities. But nevertheless, the number of such “coincidences” is amazing!
Today, the famous American science fiction writer of Soviet origin, Isaac Asimov, would have turned 94 years old. Isaac Yudovich Ozimov (as his parents named the boy) was born on January 2, 1920 in the town of Petrovichi, Mstislavl district, Mogilev province of Belarus (now Shumyachsky district, Smolensk region).
When the boy was three years old, his parents moved to America. Short description His brilliant scientific career makes a strong impression: at the age of 11, the young prodigy graduated from school, at 15, from college, at 19, from the university, at 21, he received a master’s degree, and at 28, he received a doctorate, after which he became a professor.
But science alone was not enough for Asimov. He discovered the extraordinary talent of a science fiction writer, and a little later - a unique erudite, capable of telling readers about everything in the world in an accessible and simple way!
Asimov is perhaps the only writer in the world who created more than 500 books during his life! They say that he worked from early morning until late evening, practically did not go outside and never even visited the winter garden that Azimov’s wife laid out at their home.
Asimov wrote in different genres: he has historical works and detective stories, but the stories about robots that he wrote from the age of 19 brought him the greatest fame. The ideas presented in them are no longer just fantasy, but reality.
Robots work in warehouses and factories, making airplanes and cars. South Korea plans to create robot guards in prisons. The US, South Korea, Israel and other countries are developing military drones and autonomous ground robots, many of them armed. Finally, children love robots.
But in 1939, when Asimov took up the topic, robots were a fairly new idea. The word “robot” was first mentioned in a play by Czech playwright Karel Capek. His robots are machines gone mad. But Isaac Asimov took a scientific look at the idea. “A robot must be designed to meet certain safety standards, just like any other machine created by an intelligent technological society,” he wrote.
Based on Asimov's first stories, a list of rules was compiled that robots obeyed. They became the three laws of robotics: 1) A robot cannot harm a person or, through inaction, allow a person to be harmed; 2) A robot must follow the orders of human beings, except in cases where these orders contradict the first law; 3) A robot must protect its existence, except in cases where such protection would conflict with the first or second law.
Asimov's laws of robotics were clear, direct and logical, but, like any laws, not always enforceable
Today's robots are capable of receiving independent decisions, so in 2009, scientists from the United States proposed three other laws. 1) Since it is people who create robotic systems, the human-robot system must meet high safety and ethical standards. 2) Robots must obey, but only to a limited number of people. 3) Robots must protect themselves, but only after they completely transfer control of the operation being performed (for example, driving a car) to a person. The discussion continues. On the agenda are topics such as psychological dependence on robots (similar to addiction to video games or smartphones), communication between a robot and a person.
Like many outstanding personalities, Asimov looked far into the future. This is what he predicted back in 1964.
- 1. In their attempts to create an optimal environment, people will move further and further from nature.
- 2. Kitchen utensils will be created that will heat water, turning it into coffee, and prepare automatic food. A complete meal, which will consist of half-cooked food, will be stored in the refrigerator until it is time to cook it.
- 3. In 2014, devices, of course, will be without electrical wires.
- 4. Huge efforts will be invested in creating robotic machines. In 2014, robots will not yet be widespread, they will not yet be good enough, but they will definitely exist.
- 5. By 2014, only unmanned ships will be able to land on Mars, however, a human expedition will not be far off, and in 2014 people will be able to see a model of a Martian colony.
- 6. For short distance journeys in city centers we will see moving sidewalks.
And perhaps my darkest prediction for 2014 is that in a society of enforced laziness, the most notable word in the dictionary will be Work!
- 7. It is very likely that in 2014 the number of people on Earth will be 6.5 billion people, and the population of the United States will exceed 350 million people.
- 8. Synchronized satellites that will hover above the Earth will give people the opportunity to make direct calls to anywhere on the planet. Communications will use not only sound, but also image; people will be able not only to hear the interlocutor, but also to see.
- 9. In 2014, at the World Exhibition, you will be able to see a full-size 3D TV on which the ballet will be broadcast.
- 10. In the world of 2014, there won't be many routine jobs that robotic machines can't do better than humans. Thus, humanity will turn, for the most part, into a race of looking after robots. Boredom in such conditions will become a serious problem for humanity.
- 11. Those people who are lucky enough to be involved in any variety creative work, will become the real elite of humanity, since only they will produce something more than just servicing machines.
Illustration copyright Getty Images Image caption The motto of the exhibition was “Peace through understanding,” but whether understanding has come after half a century is a big question
Illustration copyright Reuters Image caption It seemed that a little more, and the cars would fly and float...
“In 2014, we will all be registered with psychiatrists.” Isaac Asimov promised us such a prospect exactly 50 years ago when he published his forecasts for 2014.
And the reason for such an original prediction by the world-famous science fiction writer was the World Exhibition "Expo 64-65", which was held in the New York borough of Queens from April to October 1964 (and then again from April to October 1965).
Asimov believed that in 50 years we would all simply go crazy - in the figurative sense of the word - from the abundance of different devices and devices that will appear in our lives.
Although the exhibition's motto was "Peace through Understanding", today it is remembered primarily for its futuristic concepts.
And it doesn’t matter that some of them, like underwater dwellings and flying cars, never became widespread.
But many of Asimov’s predictions hit the mark.
What did the science fiction writer expect to see 50 years later in 1964?
1. “The connection will be visual and audio, and we will only hear, but also see the interlocutor on the phone.”
The first transatlantic video call was made on April 20, 1964, thanks to technology from Bell Systems (later Bell Laboratories), which may have partially led Asimov to his prophecy.
Illustration copyright AP Image caption At the exhibition, visitors were able to use a video phone for the first timeHowever, even he would be surprised by the cost of today's Skype or Apple FaceTime calls: in 1964, a three-minute video call between Washington and New York cost $16 - almost $120 in today's money.
2. “It will be possible to call directly to any point on earth, even to an Antarctic weather station.”
Image caption It’s not difficult to get through to Antarctica today, but penguins have never learned to pick up the phone...Pure truth. Some stations have a code of 672, others have a New Zealand code of +64.
3. “In 2014, robots won’t be very common or very advanced, but they will be there.”
Illustration copyright Getty Image caption Robots from 1964... There was something to dream about...Asimov was the first to coin the word robotics (robotics), so it is not surprising that he was right when he predicted that full-fledged android robots would not appear in 2014, but miniature robotic computers (and the same smartphone is nothing more than like a robot) will become widely used in everyday life.
4. “As for televisions, wall-mounted screens will replace conventional devices, and transparent cubes will even begin to appear, allowing you to see the picture in three dimensions.”
Illustration copyright Thinkstock Image caption It seemed to Asimov that the most popular spectacle in 3D would be ballet. Dreamer...One of the peculiarities of Asimov's predictions is that he sometimes accurately identified future technologies, but overestimated the enthusiasm with which they would be greeted.
We must give the science fiction writer his due: flat screens have replaced conventional TVs, and even 3D TVs have appeared, albeit not in the shape of a cube.
But he was wrong about his sentiments: the BBC is even going to suspend broadcasting films in 3D “due to lack of interest in them.”
5. "Communicating with the Moon will be a little difficult."
Illustration copyright AP Image caption The General Motors Futurama II pavilion featured mock-ups of underwater and lunar dwellings.Of course, even an old woman can get into trouble. At the dawn of the space age, it seemed to everyone, and not only science fiction writers, that lunar colonies were just a stone's throw away. And the inconvenience will only be associated with a signal delay of two and a half seconds.
But where Asimov hit the nail on the head is with the assumption that by 2014 “only unmanned ships will visit Mars.”
6. “Food processors will cook their own food and brew coffee.”
Illustration copyright Getty Images Image caption Food processors can do a lot, but they can’t yet have a conversation over a cup of coffee.Well, automatic coffee makers do exist.
Asimov also believed that scientists would create products with different flavors, from turkey to steak, based on modified yeast and algae.
Illustration copyright Getty Image caption The artificial burger looks quite natural, but it tastes...And this idea was, in fact, realized last year, when the first artificial burger was created in the laboratory.
Of course, one can argue with Azimov here: he promised that the taste of these products would be “very good,” but those who had a chance to try laboratory meat were not delighted.
7. "One or two experimental plasma power plants will appear."
Illustration copyright INTER Image caption The first fusion reactor could become a reality in 2028Talk about mastering thermonuclear fusion, a process that occurs in the depths of stars, has remained just talk, although it continues today.
However, there is a long-term international project worth $22 billion to build such a reactor in the south of France, and it could be launched in 2028.
On the other hand, Asimov's predictions for large solar power plants in desert or semi-desert areas like Arizona or the Negev turned out to be surprisingly accurate.
8. "A lot of effort will be put into creating robotic vehicles."
Illustration copyright Getty Image caption Cars have become smarter, more environmentally friendly, more reliable... well, no one has canceled the steering wheel yetYes and no. Machines have become much smarter, but they cannot yet operate fully automatically.
Aquaplanes, “capable of gliding through water with minimal friction” and which fascinated exhibition visitors, also did not take root.
Jetpacks and hovercraft also have not become widely available, although the military uses them.
9. “Not the entire population of the planet will have access to future new technologies. And although people will live better materially, an even larger percentage of the population as a whole than today will lag behind the leaders in quality of life.”
Illustration copyright AP Image caption Access to information is one of the requirements modern life. Google and Facebook intend to bring the Internet to the most remote corners of the world using dronesIt is very difficult to list everything that Asimov predicted correctly or almost correctly back in 1964.
The writer's predictions regarding population growth and birth control alone deserve a separate article.
But perhaps his most important conclusion, or warning, was that both yesterday and tomorrow, technologies that can transform our lives for the better can do more harm than good if we do not provide equal access to them for everyone
35 years ago, on the eve of 1984, the Canadian publication The Star, impressed by Orwell’s dystopia “1984,” asked the famous science fiction writer Isaac Asimov to write a forecast article for 2019.
The year was not chosen by chance. Orwell's masterpiece came out of print in 1949 - 35 years earlier. Journalists seemed curious to find out how our world will change in another 35 years. Azimov also became interested and gave his own development of events.
Now we have finally reached the moment when the prophecies of the famous writer can be verified.
What came true
From Asimov’s point of view, humanity on the way to 2019 should have been disturbed by three most important thoughts:
- Probability nuclear war.
- Mass computerization.
- Use of outer space.
As for the first point, these were the pre-perestroika years, when the relationship between the two superpowers - the USSR and the USA - reached a boiling point. The world was on the verge of disaster, but the futurist still chose to remain an optimist.
If the United States and Soviet Union will continue to cling to each other, it is completely useless to discuss what life will be like in 2019. In this case, only a few of us, our children and grandchildren will remain alive, and I see no point in describing in detail the global suffering. Therefore, let's assume that there will be no nuclear one.
Isaac Asimov
Asimov also predicted computerization with surprising accuracy, although in the early 1980s few people believed in the massive development of this area. Moreover, the science fiction writer made a number of additional conclusions from his prophecy, which are also coming true today. If we touch on this topic in more detail, this is what we get.
1. Mass computerization
Asimov firmly called it inevitable. In his opinion, by 2019, society will reach a level where it simply cannot exist without computers, which will be used both in the economy and industry, and in every home.
Those countries that lag behind in this regard will suffer so obviously that their governments themselves will begin to demand computerization, just as they demand weapons today.
Isaac Asimov
This prophecy has definitely come true: today there is a PC in almost every home, even in third world countries.
2. The disappearance of some professions
This fact, from Asimov’s point of view, is an inevitable consequence of computerization. But at the same time, not everyone will be happy.
Before the Industrial Revolution, the vast majority of humanity worked agriculture and related maintenance work. When industrialization began, the transition from farm to factory was quick and painful. With computerization, the transition from a factory to something new will be even faster and, as a result, even more painful.
Isaac Asimov
It's not even that computers will take people's jobs. The need for a whole range of professions will simply disappear: any clerical work, any assembly, any mechanical repetitive work will be automated. They will begin to be performed by computers and robots controlled by them, and they will do it more quickly and successfully.
The same prediction: by 2019, a number of professions have already died out, for example, telephone operators and stenographers, and by 2020, dozens of other specialties are expected to disappear from the market. Moreover, as Asimov assumed, this is connected exactly with automation and development computer systems management.
3. Changing the concept of education
The advent of computers and the associated changes in the labor market, according to the writer, will require fundamental changes in the approach to school (and further) education. First of all, it must be computerized. If before industrialization a person could live well without being literate, in 2019 it will be impossible without the ability to handle computers and navigate the new high-tech world.
The futurist predicted the disappearance of teachers. By 2019, they may well be replaced by computers, and children will receive education at home - not according to the standard school curriculum, but at an individual pace and in accordance with one’s own interests.
In general, this prediction can also be considered, if not fulfilled, then actively coming true. The principles of raising and educating children are radically changing, with more and more parents giving preference to the so-called distance learning in online schools.
4. Growing environmental problems
The consequences of human irresponsibility in terms of waste and pollution will become increasingly obvious and intolerable over time. Trying to cope will become more stressful. It is hoped that by 2019, advances in technology will provide us with the tools to help reverse environmental degradation.
Isaac Asimov
The first half of this forecast has obviously come true: environmental problems in the world are really growing. But with the second, unfortunately, there was a mistake: modern scientists have not been able to offer a way out of this crisis.
What did not come true (but perhaps will come true)
There are other ways in which human society is progressing more slowly than the astute science fiction writer expected. Here they are.
1. Robots in every home
So far this hasn't happened. Unless, of course, we consider robotic vacuum cleaners, smart coffee makers and kettles with Internet access to be full-fledged “mobile computerized objects”.
2. Successful space exploration
By 2019, according to Asimov’s forecasts, humanity will return to the Moon with renewed vigor and even create a colossal inhabited station there, whose employees will extract minerals and produce from them Construction Materials, necessary for the construction of other objects in. The science fiction writer also envisioned launching global production into orbit (this would reduce pollution environment on the planet) and the creation of a huge space power plant to collect solar energy and transmit it to Earth.
But something went wrong.
3. World peace
The need to solve social, educational, environmental, and space issues, on which the existence of our civilization directly depends, should force humanity to unite.
Cooperation between nations and groups within nations will increase - not because of a sudden increase in idealism or decency, but because of the cold-blooded realization that lack of cooperation means ruin for all.
Isaac Asimov
Asimov believed so, even predicting the creation of some semblance of a world government. Alas, in this matter the legendary science fiction writer again turned out to be too optimistic.
35 years ago, a famous science fiction writer decided to make a forecast for 2019. Surprisingly most of his predictions eventually came true. The American science fiction writer shared with his readers how he sees the future of all mankind back in 1984. At that time, Asimov’s “conclusions” seemed unrealistic even to his most devoted fans. So how did this talented and extraordinary person see the future?
In 1984, the Canadian publication The Star made an unusual request to the writer - Asimov had to describe his vision of the future. At that time, it seemed that 35 years was a solid period, but even that would not be enough for the global changes that Asimov ultimately “promised” to humanity. First of all, Isaac Asimov assured readers that there would be no nuclear war between the USSR and the USA, otherwise his forecast would simply become meaningless. “If the United States and the Soviet Union continue to cling to each other, it is completely useless to discuss what life will be like in 2019. In this case, only a few of us, our children and grandchildren will be alive, and I see no point in describing in detail the global suffering. Therefore, let’s assume that there will be no nuclear war,” the writer wrote then.
In addition, Asimov even then believed that humanity would be completely and completely computerized: from industry to the economy. But in 1983, such statements caused nothing but laughter. But the science fiction writer stood his ground, assuring that life in the future would depend entirely on machines. Such progress will inevitably lead to job cuts and the complete “extinction” of some popular professions(stenographers, telephone operators, etc.) The writer also touched upon environmental issues. So in 1984, he was sure that the consequences of human irresponsibility would lead to terrible environmental disaster, which future scientists may be able to solve with the help of new advanced tools. Well, Asimov turned out to be right about environmental pollution, but our capabilities in solving these very environmental problems, they were clearly overrated.
Isaac Asimov predicted that in 2019 the exploration of the lunar subsoil, as well as space in general, will be in full swing. The writer’s confidence about the unity of the human species was also not justified. The science fiction writer sincerely hoped that in our time people would stop organizing showdowns and focus on solving the pressing problems of human civilization. Asimov was the most popular science fiction writer of the twentieth century, along with Robert Heinlein and Arthur C. Clarke. His most famous works include I, Robot, Foundation, and Bicentennial Man. A representative of the legendary “Big Three” died on April 6, 1992 in Brooklyn. Read also: Writers whose ideas were ahead of their time.