The Republic of Dagestan is one of the most economically developed regions of the North Caucasus Federal District. In 2011, the volume of the gross regional product of the Republic amounted to 327 billion rubles; over the past 7 years, the volume of GRP has increased more than 3 times. As part of the total volume of the gross regional product of Russia, the Republic of Dagestan specific gravity in terms of GRP volume also tended to grow from 0.02% in 2005 to 0.3% in 2011. Russian Federation In terms of GRP, Dagestan ranks 37th, among the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District - 2nd, second only to the Stavropol Territory.
Dynamics of the volume of gross regional product by region of the North Caucasian Federal District, billion rubles.
GRP production for the period from 2005 to 2011 had a steady trend towards active growth: GRP (in comparable prices) in 2011 increased by 26% compared to 2009, and by 3.6 times compared to 2005. However, in the period 2007-2010. there was a trend towards a reduction in the real GRP of the Republic of Dagestan, the largest drop of which occurred in 2010 (the index of physical volume of GRP was 103.6%), however, starting from 2011, there was an increase in the index, exceeding similar indicators on average for the federal district and the Russian Federation in in general.
GRP physical volume index, %
Per capita, the volume of gross regional product produced in Dagestan increased by 3.3 times compared to 2005 and amounted to 111.9 thousand rubles. in 2011, which corresponds to 3rd place among the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District. In the Russian Federation, Dagestan ranks 74th in terms of GRP production per capita. In terms of per capita GRP, the republic is comparable to the Ivanovo region, North Ossetia, Tyva and Kabardino-Balkaria.
Gross regional product per capita by regions of the North Caucasus Federal District, thousand rubles.
In the sectoral structure of the formation of gross added value of the Republic of Dagestan, relative to similar indicators for the federal district and Russia as a whole, one can distinguish distinctive features, allowing us to characterize the region’s economy as agrarian-industrial:
Share in GRP of the sector region Agriculture, fishing and fish farming is 15.1% (NCFD - 14.6%, Russian Federation - 4.5%).
The share of industrial products in GRP is 6.5% (NCFD - 14%, Russian Federation - 32.6%).
The share in the GRP of the construction industry is 19.4% (NCFD - 12.3, Russian Federation - 6.9%).
The share of wholesale, retail trade and personal services in GRP is 27% (NCFD - 22, RF - 19.4%).
The share in GRP of transport and communications is 9% (NCFD - 8.7%, Russian Federation - 10.5%).
The share of commercial financial services, real estate transactions, as well as the service and tourism sectors is 6.9% (NCFD - 7.3%, Russian Federation - 13%).
The share of non-market services in GRP is 16.1% (NCFD - 21.1, Russian Federation - 13.1%).
Industry structure of gross value added in 2010, %
The largest contribution to the formation of the gross regional product of the Republic of Dagestan is made by “wholesale and retail trade, provision of household services to the population”, the share of their added value in the economy over the year increased by 1.1% and in 2011 amounted to 27.3% of the total GRP (in 2005 – 19.8%). The growth was achieved mainly due to an increase in the turnover of the “wholesale trade” activity by 2.3 times. Retail trade turnover and provision of services to the population increased during the study period by 12.9% and 10.2%, respectively; real value added also increased by 10.1%. The contribution of the activity “wholesale and retail trade, provision of household services to the population” to the region’s GRP is constantly growing, and compared to 2005, its share increased from 19.8% to 27.3%, in actual current prices the increase was almost 5 times , from 17.9 billion rubles in 2005 to 89.3 billion rubles in 2011.
Structure of gross regional product by type of economic activity in 2011, %
The second most important sectors for the economy of Dagestan are the construction and agricultural sectors, providing 18.8% and 15.2%, respectively, in the formation of the gross regional product. Compared to 2010, the share of agriculture in the structure of GRP increased by 0.1%, while at the same time there was a slight drop in construction by 0.6%. During the period 2005-2011. the influence of these sectors of the economy has also changed significantly, if in 2005 the construction sector formed 12.6% of GRP, then already in 2011 - 18.8%; agriculture, on the contrary, decreased its influence from 23.6% in 2005 to 15.2% in 2011. At the same time, the real volume of added value created in the construction industry and agriculture compared to 2010 increased by 0.3 % and by 2.4%, respectively. Comparing 2011 with 2005, the real volume of added value decreased from 108.1% to 106.3% in agriculture and from 145.8% to 108.3% in construction.
Dynamics of indices of physical volume of gross value added,%
| Branch of the economy | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| Agriculture | 108,1 | 105,2 | 105,2 | 103,3 | 104,4 | 103,9 | 106,3 |
| Fishing and fish farming | 76,8 | 80,3 | 101,1 | 169,8 | 132,9 | 100,4 | 96,3 |
| Industry | 81,4 | 98,6 | 106,2 | 94,2 | 110,1 | 103 | 100,5 |
| Construction | 145,8 | 127,8 | 130,1 | 126,5 | 115,6 | 108 | 108,3 |
| Transport and communications | 109,3 | 119,1 | 105,9 | 116,2 | 97,8 | 94,2 | 109,9 |
| Trade | 132,6 | 124,2 | 133,2 | 114,6 | 116,5 | 101,6 | 111,7 |
| Services in the field of finance, real estate, services and tourism | 28,6 | 89,1 | 86,3 | 81,4 | 65,5 | 114,7 | 85,7 |
| Off-market services | 109 | 105 | 105,8 | 98,6 | 103,8 | 101,8 | 102,3 |
Agriculture, construction and trade together form 57.7% of added value in the region, the share of other sectors and their contribution to the formation of the economy of the Republic of Dagestan in terms of types of economic activity is not so significant and ranges from 8.8% (“transport and communications” ) up to 0.1% (“financial activities”). During the period under study, the share of these industries was not subject to significant deviations, which indicates a stable economic situation.
Structure of the gross regional product by type of economic activity (as a percentage of the total)
| Index | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| including by type of economic activity: | |||||||
| Agriculture, hunting and forestry | 23,5 | 19,8 | 15,8 | 15,4 | 15,0 | 15,0 | 15,1 |
| Fishing, fish farming | 0,1 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,1 | 0,1 | 0,1 |
| Mining | 1,9 | 1,1 | 0,9 | 0,6 | 0,4 | 0,5 | 0,5 |
| Manufacturing industries | 5,8 | 3,9 | 4,7 | 3,2 | 3,7 | 4,3 | 4,2 |
| Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water | 2,1 | 1,8 | 3,8 | 3,4 | 1,7 | 1,7 | 1,9 |
| Construction | 12,6 | 15,8 | 17,0 | 19,7 | 20,1 | 19,4 | 18,8 |
| Wholesale and retail trade; repair of vehicles, motorcycles, household products and personal items | 19,8 | 21,4 | 25,3 | 23,6 | 26,7 | 27,0 | 27,3 |
| Hotels and restaurants | 1,6 | 1,8 | 2,9 | 3,9 | 3,3 | 3,8 | 4,6 |
| Transport and communications | 14,2 | 13,9 | 8,5 | 11,0 | 10,3 | 9,0 | 8,8 |
| Financial activities | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,2 | 0,2 | 0,1 |
| Real estate transactions, rental and provision of services | 2,6 | 2,9 | 3,8 | 2,9 | 2,0 | 2,9 | 2,6 |
| Public administration and ensuring military security; compulsory social security | 4,1 | 6,3 | 6,4 | 5,9 | 6,0 | 6,1 | 6,1 |
| Education | 5,7 | 5,6 | 5,3 | 4,9 | 5,0 | 4,9 | 4,8 |
| Health and social service provision | 3,6 | 3,8 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 4,0 | 3,9 | 3,9 |
| Provision of other utility, social and personal services | 2,4 | 1,9 | 1,7 | 1,6 | 1,4 | 1,2 | 1,2 |
In the structure of areas of GRP use, its main share falls on final consumption expenditures - in 2012, 70.2% of the total volume, of which 75.4% falls on final consumption of households. In general, for the period 2005-2012. There was a steady increase in the use of gross domestic product for both final consumption and gross capital formation. 15
Dynamics of the use of gross domestic product, billion rubles
Discussing the implementation of last year's budget on September 13, officials repeatedly emphasized: Yes, the treasury only covers social expenses and actually ignores the real sector, but our industrial growth rates are still the highest in the country. The government boasts of socio-economic development indicators (SED) in all sorts of interviews as its main achievements and even dedicated them to documentary. But what is actually driving this growth?
The pace of industrial production is a special source of pride for the authorities. It's no joke, in 2013 statistics showed an increase of 54% compared to the previous period, and at the end of last year - by 36%. The galloping SER in 2013 raised the republican government from 53 to 31 place in the ranking of the effectiveness of state authorities of the constituent entities. Since 2012, industrial production volumes in the Republic of Dagestan have increased 2.2 times. All laurels are attributed to “New Industrialization” - the priority project of the head of the republic. Successes come from the machine-building complex, reports the Ministry of Industry of the Republic of Dagestan. Industrial growth last year was affected by a jump in the production of machinery and equipment by 2.5 times (JSC Dagdizel), production of vehicles and equipment by 1.8 times (JSC Concern KEMZ), production, transmission and distribution of electricity - by 44.9% (Dagestan branch of JSC RusHydro) and production of food products, including drinks and tobacco - by 5.7% (JSC Kizlyaragrokompleks, JSC Derbent Brandy Factory, JSC Rychal-Su ").
In January–June 2017, the industry grew by another 40.3%, in seven months – by 44.7%, and in eight months – by 35.2% compared to the same period in 2016. The highest indicators are found in OJSC Concern KEMZ, OJSC Dagdizel Plant, OJSC Gadzhiev Plant, Azimut PA, and OJSC DNII Volna.
In the first quarter of 2017, Dagestan ranked fourth in the ranking of regions according to the industrial growth index.
Let’s compare it with tax revenues, the volume of products sold/shipped and with GRP.
Furniture in stock
Once every three years, the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Dagestan draws up a socio-economic development forecast in two versions - optimistic and basic - and adjusts it annually. According to domestic legislation, SER indicators are taken into account when drawing up the draft republican budget and affect planned tax revenues (although, according to the source, there is no exact relationship between the forecast indicators and the budget).
The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in its manual for developing the SER forecast, recommends using two indicators to characterize the industrial (and in general production) result - production output (includes sold goods and services, unsold finished products and work in progress) and the volume of shipped (sold) products of own production (equating them in this regard to the index of industrial production). The latest estimate does not fully correspond to production results, but in terms of dynamic characteristics in general it is sufficiently close to them, according to the Federal Ministry of Economy.
Therefore, it seems to us that this indicator characterizes the current situation.
Table. Dynamics of economic indicators of development of the Republic of Dagestan
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Manufacturing industries in the structure of shipped goods, in percentage: |
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food production, including drinks and tobacco |
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production of rubber and plastic products |
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production of other non-metallic mineral products |
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production of electrical equipment, optical and electronic equipment |
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production of vehicles and equipment |
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other production |
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GRP per capita, thousand rubles |
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The volume of shipped goods of own production, performed works and services, on our own, million rubles. |
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Industrial production index as a percentage of the previous year) |
The volume of products shipped over the past year is estimated at 52.4 billion rubles, a decrease compared to 2015 by almost 12 billion rubles (the structure is reflected in Table 1, OKVED articles are presented, the share of which is more than 5%). The number of enterprises involved in manufacturing industries has decreased by 355 since 2013 and amounted to 682.
The largest share in the volume of shipped products is occupied by the production of food products, including drinks and tobacco - 45% (31% of GRP). Until 2016, second place was occupied by other production, which OKVED includes the production and restoration of furniture. There was a sharp jump in furniture in 2015, when its share rose from 7.5 to 35%. The production of vehicles and equipment has been lagging behind the furniture sector almost all this time. Only in 2016 did they manage to raise the bar from 7 to 13.2%. (The main share here is furnaces, as well as industrial and laboratory chambers.) There was also an increase in shipments of non-metallic mineral products: from 9 to 14.3%.
Non-profit industry
The growth of industry by 2.2 times should have had a corresponding impact on tax revenues. We analyzed tax revenues to the consolidated budget, that is, taking into account the share credited to the federal budget.
Since 2012, they have grown by 10 billion rubles and amounted to 31.7 billion (as of January 1, 2017). Of these, 3.8 billion is corporate income tax, 12.1 billion is personal income tax, 5.2 billion is VAT, 3.5 is excise taxes on excisable goods. Over five years, income tax revenues have remained virtually unchanged. 3.7 billion went to the budget in 2012, 3.8 in 2016. In 2015, it also dropped to 2.4.
What types of economic activities supply the treasury with income tax?
The profit from the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water for the budget is 1.2 billion. All types of manufacturing industries provide more than 900 million rubles, where the food industry is about 370 million, the production of leather and footwear is 1.3 million, and the refining of petroleum products is 1.7 million. Moreover, it turns out that publishing activities in general provide the treasury with more income (44 million) than oil refining (3 million). In this regard, transportation through pipelines brings a much greater profit to the republic - 234 million.
The treasury received 13.7 million from mechanical engineering - this is about 6 million more than the level of 2012. Compared to the year before last, there is a decrease: then about 58 million were paid. Revenues from the item “production of ships, aircraft and spacecraft and other vehicles" from 11 to 428 million.
Construction and trade, with a share in GRP of 15 and 28%, provide a profit in terms of income tax - 240 and 501 million. In total, the budget received 1.9 billion from the construction industry, and 2.6 billion from trade.
Other industries, despite the impressive volumes of shipments, on the contrary, lost weight: the profit tax on their part decreased from 14.4 to 6.3 million.
VAT gained a lot of weight: from 1.8 to 5.1 billion. The food industry contributed 1.6 billion, mechanical engineering - 268.4 million (increased by 280 million compared to 2012, but lost 220 million since 2015), production electrical equipment - -42 million compared to 2012, production of ships and other vehicles - +180 million.
VAT returns from construction increased by 600 million and by 381 million from trade.
It is also unclear where the crazy industrial growth that we are told about will go if the share of industrial production is only 6% of GRP. It has remained virtually unchanged since 2010, no matter how galloping the statistics may be. According to data for 2015, mineral extraction amounted to 0.4% of GRP, manufacturing - 3.9%, gas and water production - 2%. The industrial growth index is based on these three pillars. For comparison: 28% of GRP is trade, another 15% each from agriculture and construction.
At the same time, we must not forget that the volume of industrial production strongly depends on the volume of state defense orders. The Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Dagestan associated the decrease in the growth index of manufacturing industries in 2012 with a decrease in the volume of state defense orders. In 2013, the state defense order placed at Dagestan enterprises increased one and a half times compared to the previous year, after which the government began to report industrial successes. ]§[
The GRP growth rate in 2015 will be 105.7%, which is 5.1 percentage points lower than the estimate for 2014 (110.8%), while being 4.5 percentage points higher than the average for the Russian Federation (101. 2%) and 3.4 percentage points more than the figure for the Stavropol Territory (102.3%).
GRP growth rate of the Republic of Dagestan, Stavropol Territory
and GDP of the Russian Federation for 2010-2013,
assessment for 2014 and forecast for 2015-2017
The data presented in the diagram indicate consistently high growth rates of GRP compared to the Stavropol Territory and the Russian Federation as a whole (GDP).
The average growth rate of GRP in 2015-2017 will be 7.3% for the republic, 2.7% for the Stavropol Territory, and 2.2% for the Russian Federation (GDP).
The share of taxes (at all levels of budgets for 2013) in the volume of GRP is 7.4%, which is 2.3 times lower than the average for the Russian Federation (17%) and 1.6 times less than the average for the North Caucasus Federal District (12.1%), including 2.4 times lower than in the Stavropol Territory (while the difference between the GRP volumes in the Republic of Dagestan and the Stavropol Territory is 1.2 times).
GRP volumes and tax revenues
by subjects of the North Caucasian Federal District for 2013
(all budget levels)
billion rubles
The share of taxes in the structure of GRP of the Republic of Dagestan is the lowest among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the North Caucasus Federal District. According to this indicator, the Republic of Dagestan ranks last place among the subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District. At the same time, in many macroeconomic indicators that form GRP, the Republic of Dagestan occupies a leading position (1-2 places), including:
The volume of agricultural production is 2nd after the Stavropol Territory;
Volume of investments in fixed capital - 1st place;
Volume of construction work performed - 1st place;
Retail trade turnover - 2nd place after Stavropol Territory;
Volume paid services population - 2nd place after the Stavropol Territory.
Based on 2014 estimates GRP per capita in the Republic of Dagestan will be 171.5 thousand rubles, which is 7.9 thousand rubles or 4.6% less than in the Stavropol Territory (179.4 thousand rubles), then according to the forecast for 2015, the gap will be 3.9 thousand . rubles or 2.1% (RD - 190.3 thousand rubles, SK - 194.2 thousand rubles).
The increase in GRP per capita is projected: in 2015 by 11%; in 2016 - by 12.7%; in 2017 - by 13.7%.
In the structure of GRP (according to the forecast for 2015), the largest share (81%) falls on:
Wholesale and retail trade, repair of vehicles, household products and personal items – 24.6%;
Construction - 20.6%;
Agriculture, hunting and forestry – 13.3%;
Industrial production – 8.3%;
Hotels and restaurants – 7.8%;
Transport and communications – 6.2%.
Structure of Gross Regional Product
according to the Forecast of SER RD for 2015
The predicted high rates of development of individual sectors of the economy in 2015-2017 should lead to a change in the structure of GRP.
4.4. According to the Forecast of the SER RD for 2015-2017 industrial production index will be: in 2015 – 109.1%, in 2016 – 110.3% and in 2017 – 111.0% compared to the previous year. The growth rate in 2017 compared to the level of 2013 will increase by 1.5 times against the 107.3% average for the Russian Federation.
In 2015, the volume of shipped products will amount to 70,451.2 million rubles, which is 9,763.7 million rubles more than the estimate for 2014.
The structure of industrial production is:
- “mining” - 7.2% (5,076.3 million rubles) versus 6.8% according to estimates for 2014;
- “manufacturing industries” - 67.8% (47,800.6 million rubles) versus 66.7% according to the 2014 estimate;
- “production and distribution of electricity, gas and water” - 24.9% (17,574.3 million rubles) versus 26.5% according to the 2014 estimate.
The volume of industrial production per capita for 2015 is 23.6 thousand rubles and will increase compared to 2013 (20.4 thousand rubles) by 3.2 thousand rubles or 22.8%, while being 4 times lower level of the Stavropol Territory (92.0 thousand rubles).
Structure of industrial production
(2014-2015)
The main part of industrial production volumes (more than 60%) is formed by manufacturing industries. According to the forecast for 2015, the production volume of manufacturing industries will be 47,800.6 million rubles, which is 7,306.2 million rubles or 18% more than the estimate for 2014 (40,494.4 million rubles).
Product share by manufacturing industries the total volume of industrial production in 2015 will increase by 1.1 percentage points (from 66.7% to 67.8%), while the share of production and distribution of electricity, gas and water– will decrease by 1.6 percentage points (from 26.5% to 24.9%).
It should be noted that the further development of industry should be facilitated by the implementation of Priority development projects in the Republic of Dagestan, including “New industrialization”, “Growth points”, investments and effective territorial development”, Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2012 No. 596 “On long-term state economic politics" and state program RD "Development of industry of the Republic of Dagestan for 2014-2018".
4.5. In 2015, the production growth rate is projected to increase agricultural products by 0.2 percentage points (106.4%) compared to the assessment level for 2014 (106.2%). The growth rate for 2017 relative to 2013 is projected to be 129.1%, with an average of 112.3% for the Russian Federation.
In the field of agricultural development in the republic, a number of programs and investment projects are annually implemented, for the support of which significant financial resources are allocated, including credit.
In addition, in 2015, the implementation of Priority Development Projects of the Republic of Dagestan will be continued, including those aimed at the development of the agro-industrial complex: “Creating “growth points” of the Republic of Dagestan” and “Efficient agro-industrial complex”.
In the total volume of agricultural production, the main share is made up of household households - 71%, peasant (farm) households - 14.7%, agricultural enterprises - 14.3%.
Structure of agricultural products
Republic of Dagestan and Stavropol Territory
In the total volume of agricultural products produced, the smallest share is made up of agricultural products - 14.3%, versus 60% in the Stavropol Territory (or 4.2 times less).
The volume of agricultural production per capita for 2015 is planned at 32.0 thousand rubles, or 1.6 times lower than in the Stavropol Territory (53.0 thousand rubles).
According to this indicator, in order to reach the level of the Stavropol Territory by 2017, it is necessary to annually increase the growth rate of agricultural production by at least 1.3 times, and bring the level to the Russian average by 3 times.
In the forecast period, work will continue to implement the priority development project of the RD “Effective agro-industrial complex”, aimed at the development of poultry farming, viticulture (introduction of a cluster approach), livestock farming, fishery complex, placement of intensive industrial gardens, creation of agro-industrial parks, geothermal agricultural parks, support of key investment projects in the agricultural sector.
4.6. Volume investment in fixed assets from all sources of financing for 2015 it is predicted in the amount of 248,000.0 million rubles, which is 30,000.0 million rubles more than the estimate for 2014, while the growth rate (107.6%) is 5.1 percent points lower than the estimate for 2014 (112.7%).
The growth rate of investments in 2017 compared to the level of 2013 will be 144.9% against the 104.1% average for the Russian Federation.
The volume of investments per capita for 2015 is projected at 82.9 thousand rubles, which is 13.1% or 9.6 thousand rubles more than the estimate for 2014 (73.3 thousand rubles).
In the structure of investment distribution, the largest share is occupied by enterprises of the following types of economic activities: “transport and communications” - 19.5%, “construction” - 17.0%, “production and distribution of electricity, gas and water” - 12.8%, “manufacturing” - 10.3%, “operations with real estate, rental and provision of services” - 8.6%, “agriculture” - 8.5%, “health care” - 8.1%, “education” - 7.1%.
Of the total investment, the share of organizations' own funds is 13.6%, attracted funds - 86.4%, of which budget funds - 57.6%.
In terms of investment volume for 2015, the Republic of Dagestan is ahead of the subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District, in particular the Stavropol Territory, in terms of total investment volume and investment volume per capita - 1.5 times (investment volume: RD - 248.0 billion rubles, SK - 145.0 billion rubles; per capita: RD - 82.9 thousand rubles, SK - 51.8 thousand rubles).
High growth rates of investment in fixed assets will be ensured through additional capital investments in the energy sector, production of building materials, agriculture, the mining sector, manufacturing, transport, tourism and recreation, housing construction, education and healthcare.
In order to attract investments in the republic, the Priority Development Project of the Republic of Dagestan “Investments in Dagestan” is being implemented, which provides for the implementation of measures aimed at increasing the representation of the republic in federal programs, in the investment programs of state companies and state corporations, which will ensure the influx of additional investment funds into economy.
4.7. Taking into account the growth of investments in fixed capital in the forecast period, the increase volume of work performed by type of activity “Construction” will be: in 2015 – by 15,000.0 million rubles or 13.8%, in 2016 – by 7,000.0 million rubles or 5.7%, in 2017 – by 11,000.0 million rubles or 8.4%.
An increase in the commissioning of residential buildings is predicted from all sources of financing: in 2015 - by 2.5% or 40 thousand sq. m. m (1,650 thousand sq. m), in 2016 - by 5.5% or 90 thousand square meters. m (1,740 thousand sq. m), in 2017 - a decrease of 2.3% or 40 thousand sq. m. m (1,700 thousand sq. m).
The share of housing built by individual developers will increase to 90% versus 89% in 2014 (estimate).
According to the Ministry of Construction, Architecture and Housing and Communal Services of the Republic of Dagestan, in January-September of this year the rate of commissioning of new housing increased by almost 8% compared to the same period last year. More than 80% of the total housing under construction is being built by individual developers. Over 9 months of 2014, about 650.0 thousand square meters were commissioned in the region. m of individual housing and almost 120.0 thousand sq. m. m of housing in multi-storey residential buildings.
The total area of residential premises per 1 resident of the republic in 2017 will be 19.0 square meters. m (for 2013 - 17.1 sq. m), while the average for the Russian Federation (according to the report for 2012) is 23.4 sq. m. m.
4.8. Turnover retail for 2015, according to the Forecast of SER RD for 2015-2017, will amount to 579,598.1 million rubles, which is 67,938.2 million rubles or 13.3% more than the estimate for 2014 (511,659.9 million rubles ).
The growth rate of retail trade turnover for 2013-2016 is planned to be higher than the average for the Russian Federation and the Stavropol Territory. Thus, the growth rate of retail trade turnover in the forecast period will be: in 2015 – 8.4%; in 2016 – 10.2%; in 2017 – 12.1%.
In 2015-2017, the average annual growth rate of retail trade turnover will be 110.2% (in the forecast for the Russian Federation as a whole - 103.9%).
The growth rate of retail trade turnover in 2017 compared to the level of 2013 will be 44.8% versus 9.1% on average for the Russian Federation.
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ABOUT SOME INDICATORS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF DAGESTAN for January-December 2016
Gross regional product
Index of output of goods and services by basic types of economic activity for January-December 2016. increased compared to the corresponding period in 2015 and amounted to 107.8% (January-December 2015 - 105.9%).
Industrial production
Industrial production index for January-December 2016 to the corresponding period in 2015. amounted to 136.3%, against 105.2% in January-December 2015. The growth of industrial production compared to January-December 2015. influenced by an increase in: production of machinery and equipment - 2.5 times (JSC Dagdizel), production of vehicles and equipment - 1.8 times (JSC Concern KEMZ), production, transmission and distribution of electricity - by 44.9 % (Dagestan Branch of JSC RusHydro) and food production, including drinks and tobacco - by 5.7% (JSC Kizlyaragrokompleks, JSC Derbent Brandy Factory, JSC Rychal-Su). At the same time, there is a decrease in the production of fuel and energy minerals - by 7.6% (JSC NK Rosneft-Dagneft), production, transmission and distribution of steam and hot water– by 12% (Makhachkala Teploenergo OJSC, Caspi Heat Service LLC, Dagestanenergo LLC).
Agriculture
The volume of agricultural production of all agricultural producers (agricultural organizations, peasant (farm) enterprises, population) in January-December 2016 is estimated at 112,454.6 million rubles in current prices, and amounted to 104.7% (including crop production - 104. 7%, livestock - 104.6%,) compared to the corresponding period in 2015, against 105.2% in January-December 2015.
Construction
The volume of work performed in the “construction” type of activity in January-December 2016 amounted to 133,440.1 million rubles and increased by 4.0% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Large and medium-sized construction organizations completed work worth 8,841.6 million rubles in January-December 2016, which amounted to 121.0% of the level in January-December 2015. In January-December 2016, housing with a total area of 1844.8 thousand square meters was commissioned. meters, which is 1.9% more than in the corresponding period of the previous year, including individual residential buildings - 1579.3 thousand square meters. meters, which is 12.5% more.
Trade and services
Retail trade turnover in January-December 2016 amounted to 671,214.4 million rubles, which in comparable prices is 1.9% more than the same period of the previous year. The increase in the growth rate of retail trade turnover in January-December 2016 was due to an increase in the physical volume of sales in the markets by 3.9% compared to the level of the corresponding period of the previous year. In the structure of retail trade turnover, the share of food products in January-December 2016 amounted to 52.4%, non-food products – 47.6%. The volume of paid services provided to the population of the republic through all sales channels in January-December 2016 amounted to 116,440.3 million rubles, which in comparable prices is 1.6% more than the corresponding period in 2015.
Finance
Finance. In January-November 2016, the balanced financial result (profit minus loss) of organizations in current prices amounted to 3,750.2 million rubles of loss. The accounts payable of the surveyed organizations of the republic amounted to December 1, 2016. 80517.6 million rubles, including overdue - 28027.1 million rubles or 34.8% of the total amount (as of December 1, 2015 - 32.4%). Accounts payable decreased by 3% compared to the previous month, and increased by 13.9% compared to the same period of the previous year, and overdue accounts, respectively, decreased by 3.5% and increased by 22.3%. Accounts receivable as of December 1, 2016 amounted to 30,085.9 million rubles, of which overdue – 6,631.4 million rubles or 22% (as of December 1, 2015 – 18.3%). Accounts receivable decreased by 2.1% compared to the previous month, and decreased by 1.5% compared to the same period of the previous year, and overdue accounts decreased by 7.9% and 13.4%, respectively.
Social issues
Average per capita cash income for January-December 2016 was estimated to be 28,634.4 rubles. Real disposable cash income (income minus mandatory payments, adjusted for the consumer price index), according to preliminary data, amounted to 102.6%. Average monthly nominal wage for January-November 2016 amounted to 19,446.9 rubles and increased by 3.4% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Real wages for the same period compared to the corresponding period in 2015. decreased by 2.8%.
Another year has ended. We must admit that it was difficult not only for the country as a whole, but also for our republic. In 2017, sanctions against Russia continued to be imposed, although our country also responded with “mirror” measures. But unlike previous years, we have already adapted to both the sanctions and the economic crisis, which, admittedly, has subsided. Despite this, in 2017, as in previous years, the “austerity regime” was relevant. In these difficult conditions, we were able to show growth in many areas. So, let's summarize the preliminary results of the past year (the exact numbers will be known a little later).
The big picture
In general, the socio-economic situation in Dagestan by the end of the year demonstrated positive dynamics in the rates of key economic indicators. The growth rate of industrial production was 20.6%, agricultural and construction products - 4.7% each, retail trade turnover - 3%, the volume of paid services to the population - 2.7%, real disposable cash income - 3.3%.
As a result, the index of output of goods and services for basic types of economic activity increased by 6.4%, with an increase of 6.1% in January-November 2016.
As part of the implementation of the subprogram “Socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan for 2016-2025” of the state program of the Russian Federation “Development of the North Caucasus Federal District for the period until 2025” this year, investment projects for the construction of greenhouse complexes of LLC “ AgroMir" and LLC "Yugagroholding", as well as a plant for the production of gypsum and gypsum-containing building materials in the industrial zone of the village. Kafir-Kumukh. It is expected that after the projects reach their planned capacity, more than 400 jobs will be created and annual tax payments to budgets of all levels will be ensured in the amount of 180 million rubles.
Priority projects for the development of Dagestan were implemented, including in order to increase the tax potential of the consolidated budget of the region. Tax and non-tax revenues for 11 months amounted to 29 billion rubles, the established tasks for collecting tax and non-tax revenues into the consolidated budget of the republic were fulfilled by 101.3%.
In addition, information about 63.6 thousand land plots and 67.1 thousand capital construction projects was transferred to AIS Tax-3, information was updated and ownership rights for 53.6 thousand land plots and 33.9 thousand were registered. capital construction projects. 4,249 entities engaged in activities without registration were identified, and 2,923 entities were registered for tax purposes. As of December 20, 53.8 thousand people were identified who were engaged in activities without appropriate registration, of which 44.9 thousand people had employment contracts concluded or registered (100.3% of the planned values).
Industry
The situation in industry was characterized by an increase in production volumes in general by 20.6%, with an increase in the rate of mining by 0.5%, manufacturing by 25.1% and an observed decline in the volume of water supply, sanitation, organization of waste collection and disposal, and waste management activities. eliminating pollution by 0.7% and ensuring electrical energy, gas and steam, air conditioning by 11.6%.
By type of activity “manufacturing” high level growth of the industrial production index (125.1%) for 11 months compared to the corresponding period in 2016 is the result of accelerated growth of industrial production in such structure-forming types of economic activities as the production of coke and petroleum products - by 6.3 times (CJSC "Caspian 1" ); production of finished metal products, except machinery and equipment - 1.8 times (JSC Dagdizel); production of computers, electronic and optical products - 1.5 times (JSC Azimut); production of other vehicles and equipment - 1.4 times (JSC Concern KEMZ); beverage production – 1.3 times. At the same time, there is a decrease in production in the production of electrical equipment - by 33.8% (JSC Kizlyar Electrical Apparatus Plant), in the production of machinery and equipment not included in other groups - by 32.5% (FL SPC conversion "Separator Plant" ) and production, transmission and distribution of electricity - by 30.9% (JSC Branch of PJSC RusHydro - Dagestan Branch).
In 2017, production was commissioned at seven industrial enterprises in Dagestan: floor tiles and ceramic granite at Marabi LLC; modern elevator assembly production of various lifting capacities at OJSC Kizlyar Electrical Apparatus Plant; vacuum film molding section at JSC Plant named after. Gadzhiev"; modernization of the mechanical assembly shop at JSC Dagdizel Plant; the second machining shop, thermal, welding and assembly sections at the Aircraft Mechanical Plant of JSC Concern KEMZ in Kaspiysk; resumption of production of glass fiber and glass fabric at Makhachkala Glass Fiber Plant OJSC; galvanic production and launch of the molar section at OJSC South Sukhokum Electromechanical Plant.
According to preliminary data, production volumes for defense orders in 2017 increased 1.5 times and are estimated at 9 billion rubles. The volume of production of import-substituting industrial products, mainly for defense purposes, in 2017 was estimated at 3.7 billion rubles and increased by 1.4 times compared to 2016.
In general, the growth in the rate of industrial production in January-October in the republic was higher than the average for the Russian Federation as a whole (101.6%) and for the North Caucasus Federal District (104.7%). Among the regions North Caucasus District Dagestan is in fifth place in terms of this indicator per capita (16 thousand rubles).
Agriculture
The volume of agricultural production by all categories of commodity producers amounted to 110.4 billion rubles and increased by 4.7% (in January-November 2016 - by 3.8%). The growth in agricultural production volumes is ensured, first of all, by increasing the gross harvest of crop production.
Thus, the harvesting of the main agricultural crops has been completed in Dagestan. The gross harvest of vegetables amounted to about 1.5 million tons (105.2% compared to the same period in 2016), potatoes - 395 thousand tons (99.7%), fruits - 208.5 thousand tons (159.8%), rice - 85 thousand tons (111.2%), grapes - 168.8 thousand tons (113.6%). The planting of gardens amounted to almost 1.5 thousand hectares, including intensive gardens - 673.5 hectares, with the planned indicator for the current year being 1100 hectares and 200 hectares, respectively. New gardens were established on an area of 1233.4 hectares, which amounted to 82.2% of the program indicator for 2017 (1500 hectares).
An increase in production over 11 months is also observed in the main indicators of livestock production. The production of livestock and poultry for slaughter (in live weight) for the specified period in farms of all categories amounted to 208.4 thousand tons (105.6% of the corresponding period in 2016), milk - 767.7 thousand tons (102.6% ), eggs – 215.2 million pieces (103%).
As part of the implementation of the Import Substitution Action Plan in Dagestan, work is underway to commission, reconstruct and modernize a number of production facilities. So, in the village Novokuli, Novolaksky district (Novostroy), the first stage of a greenhouse complex with a total area of 1.3 hectares was put into operation. In addition, Yugagroholding LLC launched the first stage of a greenhouse complex on an area of 5.5 hectares, which will further increase the volume of greenhouse vegetable production in the off-season by 2.5 thousand tons. To provide the greenhouse complex with backup water supply, Yugagroholding LLC built a backup reservoir with a volume of 14 thousand cubic meters. The launch of these production facilities will allow increasing the volume of production of protected soil vegetables by the end of 2017 to 18 thousand tons, from 14 thousand tons in 2016.
In order to develop the infrastructure and logistics of the food market in Dagestan, Yugagroholding LLC completed the construction of a fruit storage facility with a total capacity of 4 thousand tons and a vegetable storage facility with a total capacity of 6 thousand tons in July 2017.
Based on the production of feed pellets from alfalfa green mass, Kizlyar Uritsky Meat Processing Plant LLC has created a raw material base for increasing the production of sausages, producing new types of raw smoked sausages, canned meat, and meat and bone meal. The company is working to expand export opportunities and is supplying products (lamb meat) to Iran.
In addition, work is underway in the republic on the technical modernization of agricultural production. Thus, agricultural producers of the republic purchased 51 units of equipment, including 13 tractors and one grain harvester for a total amount of 50 million rubles.
The growth rate of agriculture in January-October in the republic was higher than the average for the Russian Federation as a whole (104.7% versus 102.9%) and for the North Caucasus Federal District (104.7% versus 101.2%). Among the regions of the North Caucasian Federal District, the republic is in fourth place for this indicator per capita (33 thousand rubles), the best indicator is in the Stavropol Territory (65.5 thousand rubles).
Investments in fixed capital
The volume of investments in fixed assets in Dagestan from all sources of financing for three quarters amounted to 110.5 billion rubles, or 104.6% compared to the same period in 2016. The volume of work performed in the “construction” type of activity for 11 months amounted to 99.7 billion rubles and increased by 4.7% compared to the same period in 2016.
Due to all sources of financing in Dagestan in January-November, according to preliminary data, more than 1 million 374 thousand square meters were put into operation. meters of total housing area, which is 0.1% higher than the same period last year. Housing commissioning by individual developers over the past period of this year amounted to 928.8 thousand square meters. meters of total housing area, or 67.6% of the total volume of completed housing.
The growth rate in the volume of work performed by type of activity “Construction” for January-October in the republic was higher than the average for the Russian Federation as a whole (104.7% versus 97.9%) and for the North Caucasus Federal District (104.7% versus 102.6 %). Among the regions of the North Caucasian Federal District, the republic is in first place in terms of this indicator per capita (24 thousand rubles).
The actual financing of the Republican Investment Program as of December 1 amounted to over 3 billion 165 million rubles, including more than 2 billion 92 million rubles from the federal budget and 1 billion 72 million rubles from the republican budget. The volume of work performed on the Program objects for the specified period amounted to about 2 billion 859 million rubles or 90.3% of the volume of funds actually financed.
In 2017, within the framework of the Program (taking into account funding from previous years), 9 facilities were put into operation general education for 4586 student places (in Buinaksky, Kaitagsky, Tarumovsky, Tlyaratinsky, Khasavyurt, Khiva districts and in the cities of Makhachkala, Kaspiysk, Khasavyurt), 3 kindergartens for 290 places (in Buinaksky and resettlement Novolaksky districts), a sports and recreation center for 2497.5 sq. m (in the city of Kizlyar), 1 health care facility with 150 beds (Republican Perinatal Center in the city of Makhachkala), 2 artillery wells (in the Kumtorkala and Rutulsky districts), engineering infrastructure facilities in the city of Makhachkala and an embankment in the city of Derbent, measures for preparation of the reservoir bed of the Gotsatlinskaya HPP.
In addition, the construction of 6 educational facilities for 2,748 student places was completed: in Makhachkala (2 schools), in Khasavyurt (2 schools), Kumtorkala, Magaramkent districts; 2 hospitals with a total capacity of 245 beds and 100 visits per shift (in the Botlikh and Karabudakhkent districts), a pumping station (for water supply to the city of Khasavyurt and villages of the Khasavyurt district), sewage treatment facilities for 17 thousand cubic meters per day (in the city of Izberbash), engineering infrastructure objects of the Uytash investment site. These facilities will be put into operation at the beginning of 2018, taking into account the registration of ownership rights and licensing of current activities.
In 2018, over 3 billion 263 million rubles were allocated for the implementation of the Program, including 1 billion 611 million rubles from the federal budget and 1 billion 652 million rubles from the republican budget.
Social sphere
The social sphere in the republic is characterized by an increase in real disposable cash income of the population by 3.3%. The average monthly salary of employees for January-October was slightly more than 21 thousand 273 rubles, which is 5.1% more than the same period in 2016. Real wages for the past period of this year are 101.6%, which is significantly better than the same period last year (96.6%). At the same time, the average monthly salary still remains below the average for the Russian Federation as a whole (1.8 times) and the North Caucasus Federal District (1.1 times).
The situation on the labor market of the republic remained stable. At the end of November, 24.8 thousand people were registered as unemployed in state employment service institutions (92.2% compared to January-November 2016).
Budget: execution and guidelines
As of December 29, the consolidated budget of Dagestan for 2017 was 100% fulfilled in terms of tax and non-tax revenues, and the receipt of almost 32 billion rubles was ensured.
As the Ministry of Economic Development of the region explains, the achievement of positive results in the collection of tax and non-tax revenues was facilitated by the activities of the priority development project of the Republic of Dagestan “Whitening” the economy.” Work was carried out to expand the tax base for property taxes and increase revenues for the main types of taxes.
As a result of the work carried out in 2017, data on 63.6 thousand land plots and 67.1 thousand capital construction projects were updated and transferred to the tax authorities’ database. In addition, 14 thousand 704 business entities were examined, 4362 persons carrying out business activities without registration were identified, of which 2923 entities were registered for tax purposes.
As a result of the work carried out, a significant increase in revenues was achieved in comparison with the previous year for income tax (by 10.2% or 383 million rubles), special tax regimes (by 6.6% or 80.5 million rubles), property taxes (by 8.4%, or 388.4 million rubles).
In 2017, due to the allocation of additional financial assistance to the republic from the reserve fund of the President of the Russian Federation in the amount of 3.2 billion rubles, it was possible to fully fulfill the social obligations provided for in the 2017 budget, including the payment of wages to public sector employees, benefits and other.
The 2018 budget is also socially oriented. At the same time, funds are provided to support the real sector of the economy. First of all, the budget takes into account the unconditional implementation of the “May” decrees of the President of the Russian Federation, including in terms of ensuring indicative wages for public sector employees subject to the decrees. Costs for drug provision, utility costs and expenses have been sufficiently taken into account. social benefits, food in preschool educational institutions and schools, healthcare institutions, etc. In addition, the budget provides for meeting the needs for wages, accruals for wages, taking into account: an increase in the minimum wage to 9,489 rubles; an increase by 4 percent in the wage fund of other categories of workers who are not subject to the “May” decrees of the President of the Russian Federation of state civil and municipal employees; indexing scholarship fund for students educational institutions vocational education from September 1, 2018 by 4 percent. Utility costs are indexed at 4 percent.
As for the real sector of the economy, the budget provides funds in the amount of 100 million rubles for leasing agricultural machinery, 50 million rubles for the development of the canning industry, 100 million rubles to pay grape producers for delivering them for processing to alcohol-producing enterprises at the rate of 1 ruble per 1 kg. In addition, for the first time, funds have been allocated for the creation of an Industrial Development Fund in the amount of 100 million rubles.
Development of municipalities
In 2017, an assessment was made of the implementation of Agreements concluded between the Government of the Republic of Dagestan and municipal districts and urban districts on the achievement of indicators (indicators) of accelerated socio-economic development for 2016, which made it possible to determine the contribution of each municipal entity to the socio-economic development of the republic. Ranking done municipal districts and urban districts based on the results of achieving the planned values of indicators (indicators) of socio-economic development in 2016.
In order to continue this work, as well as ensure the achievement of the indicators (indicators) of the socio-economic development of the republic established by the Decree of the Head of the region “On the accelerated socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan”, Agreements were signed between the Government of Dagestan and the heads of municipal districts and city districts on achieving indicators (indicators) of socio-economic development of municipal districts and urban districts for 2017-2019. During 2017, quarterly monitoring of the implementation of these agreements was carried out, with the preparation of relevant proposals.
In 2018, quarterly monitoring of the implementation of these agreements will be continued, and an assessment of the implementation of the Agreements based on the results of 2017 will also be carried out.
In 2017, a competitive selection of projects for local initiatives of municipalities was held in Dagestan; as a result, subsidies were allocated - 29.3 million rubles - for the implementation of 15 projects. The projects include measures for water supply, construction highways, repair of social facilities, landscaping.
In 2018, work will continue to expand the number of municipalities participating in the competitive selection of local initiative projects.
In 2017, a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of the activities of local governments was also carried out, city districts and municipal districts of the Republic of Dagestan that achieved best values performance indicators. A summary report has been prepared on the results of monitoring the effectiveness of the activities of local governments of urban districts and municipal districts based on the results of 2016. Based on the results of the work carried out, by the Decree of the Head of Dagestan, prizes were awarded and grants were allocated from the republican budget 15 municipalities: 3 urban districts and 12 municipal districts.
Accommodation is provided in the state automated information system“Management” of indicator values to assess the effectiveness of the activities of local governments of urban districts and municipal districts for the reporting period, as well as planned values for a three-year period.
In 2018, work to assess the effectiveness of local governments in urban districts and municipal districts of Dagestan continued.
Conclusion
To ensure the growth of key economic and social indicators, last year in Dagestan, work was carried out to implement a number of measures aimed at growing the economy and improving the well-being of the population. Anti-crisis measures and action plans to promote import substitution in industry and the agro-industrial complex of the republic were implemented. The achievement of target values of indicators of socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, established by the “May” decrees of the President of the Russian Federation, was ensured.
In addition, to maximize the use of Dagestan’s potential, Action Plans were implemented to implement a number of decrees of the Government of the Russian Federation.
In addition, within the framework of decisions adopted in 2016 at the federal level, work was carried out in the republic to transition to project management, taking into account the new requirements for the implementation of strategic objectives, priority projects and programs. All executive authorities are focused on participating in the implementation of federal projects within the framework of 11 areas of strategic development of the Russian Federation. Coordination group of the Council under the Head of Dagestan for sustainable development and priority projects, Passports of priority development projects of the Republic of Dagestan were approved. Of the 11 main directions of strategic development of the Russian Federation, Dagestan takes part in six: safe and quality roads; small business and support for individual entrepreneurial initiative; education; housing and communal services urban environment; single-industry towns and reform of control and supervisory activities.