Tuesday November 8th information Agency RIA Novosti published a report by Mikhail Alaeddin about the battles for Aleppo. It talks about the latest attempts by the militants of the Jabhat al-Nusra (banned in Russia) and Jaish al-Fateh groups to gain a foothold in the Al-Assad quarter and the 1070 Al-Hamdaniya residential complex in the southwestern part of Aleppo.
Anticipating Alaeddin's article, the agency's editorial staff reminds that since the end of October in Aleppo, by the decision of Moscow and Damascus, the days of silence have been announced several times. The command of the Syrian army, having an advantage on the fronts, nevertheless provided the militants with the opportunity to leave the eastern quarters of the city. In addition, the hope remained to evacuate civilians from the cauldron, whom the jihadists used as human shields.
As you know, the Jabhat al-Nusra terrorist group and the leaders of allied bandit formations took advantage of the "silence" and deployed large forces to the outskirts of Aleppo, hoping to break through the ring of the Syrian army around the eastern quarters, where large forces of radicals were tightly trapped. The terrorists launched their first major offensive on 28 and 29 October. The second major, but equally failed attack took place on the eve of the "day of silence", which was announced Thursday, November 4th.
The RIA Novosti correspondent was with the Syrian army units in the Al-Assad quarter in southwestern Aleppo on the first day of the assault, when the terrorists were able to break through the defenses of government forces and approached close to the walls of the Assad military academy.
Syrian army nullifies terrorist assault on Aleppo
AFP 2016 / Omar Haj Kadour Jaish al-Fateh militants fire at western Aleppo, Syria & October 30, 2016
The weather helped the militants
There are almost no people or cars on the streets of Aleppo on Friday morning. This is not surprising, because the townspeople, as expected, are resting and getting ready for prayer, especially since the day turned out to be unusually gray and cloudy.
On the territory of military schools in Aleppo, which was liberated by the Syrian army from militants
Near one of the large mosques in the Hamdaniyah region, it becomes clear where everyone has gone. Dozens of cars are parked along the curb. Several devout Muslims abandon their vehicles and rush to the mosque, paralyzing the traffic on this street for at least an hour.
The bad weather was aggravated by rain and the city was enveloped in fog in the morning, which the militants took advantage of. In all likelihood, the terrorists began an artillery barrage before the offensive. The explosions of shells are heard in all parts of the city. The streets are almost completely empty.
Today, in addition to converted gas cylinders and mortar shells, shells from the Grad MLRS are crashing into the walls of residential buildings. The militants clearly do not spare ammunition. The shelling of the front-line neighborhoods and the city center continues continuously.
Alarming reports of heavy attacks on army positions in the 1070 quarter and al-Assad are beginning to come in.
During the Syrian conflict, terrorists have repeatedly used weather conditions and seized settlements and strategic sites, including the military airfield at Idlib and the strategic bypass route in the Khanaser area leading to Aleppo.
Several officers from the operations headquarters receive an assignment from the command to personally check what is happening on the front line, and leave in a small group. There was also a place in the car for the RIA Novosti correspondent.
Almost hit
The road from the headquarters to the front edge takes no more than 20 minutes. We drive along the Assad military academy. There are no oncoming cars, the downpour whips up disturbing thoughts. Territory educational institution borders on the quarter of the same name.
A humanitarian corridor in the north of Aleppo. Archive photo
Driving past the checkpoint, the driver stops at the entrance to Al-Assad.
“Commander, there is a lot of blood at the entrance and it looks like someone is lying inside,” Ahmed says and stops abruptly. Two officers jump out of the car and dive into the booth. There is a bloody warm blanket on the floor, the floor is covered in blood, but no one has been killed or wounded.
A small Korean truck with two men appears out of nowhere and stalls in front of us. The uninvited guests were taken at gunpoint, just in case.
“Our car has stalled, but we need to go inside, pick up the family before it's too late. Look, I have blood all over my luggage compartment. I have already made three trips - I was taking out the wounded, ”one of the men explains, almost crying.
Leaving people in the open was dangerous. The shells exploded chaotically at a distance of 100-200 meters. Helped to start from the "pusher" and the iron Korean rushed into the depths of the unknown.
The leader of the group decides to speak with the militias, whom we noticed before the checkpoint, before moving forward.
“Who is your senior - quickly come to me. What is happening and why are you here, where is the enemy now? ”Commander Mazen shouts, and at the moment two calm men appear.
“We are in charge of these two squads. Were inside. After a heavy rocket attack, we received an order to retreat to this position and await instructions. So far, where we were, our troops are still holding, but the enemy broke through the defense line in the area of the watermelon market and occupied the first line of residential buildings in the Al-Assad quarter, including the mosque, ”the senior militia group reported.
“Mosque, that's where we went. Almost hit, ”Commander Mazen muttered thoughtfully under his breath.
Threat to western quarters
In the south-west of Aleppo, in the place where the terrorists managed to break through the defenses, it was not at all easy in the morning. The assault began with the detonation of two mined APCs, followed by a small group of suicide bombers. The armored vehicles were tracked down and detonated before they approached the military positions.
The commander reported from the scene about the situation in the area of the academy. There must have already been an emergency meeting at the Operations Headquarters.
At this time, the bursts of large-caliber machine guns are already close. Militants continue to break through to the academy. The defense is supported only by artillery, but this is definitely not enough.
Judging by the arriving buses and army trucks, reinforcements were beginning to arrive. The soldiers, receiving the assignment, run in small groups to consolidate on the approaches to the academy.
Syrian children near the Bustan al-Qasr humanitarian corridor on the border of eastern and western Aleppo. Archive photo
The day is approaching evening, and with the onset of darkness, the number of falling terrorist missiles only increases. In the underground parking lot, where we talk with the militias, it turns out that civilians are also hiding, who, grabbing the children, fled from their homes, fearing to become victims of terror. People are scared. According to the head of one of the families, most of the residents managed to escape and are now sitting out in underground parking lots in the surrounding houses. Everyone is very scared.
“According to our intelligence, the radicals used about 5,000 militants and armored vehicles in this direction. The situation is extremely tense, ”says Mazen and, having received an order to return immediately to headquarters by radio, orders the group to return to the car.
The territory of the Assad Academy has never been in the hands of terrorists. The military establishment is extremely important strategic importance, so from here you can fire on almost all the western quarters of Aleppo, which are controlled by government forces.
By the evening, the second wave of the militants' offensive began. Terrorists are posting videos from the battles near the academy on their Internet pages almost online. Pick-ups of radicals with large-caliber machine guns, according to some reports, are already driving around two hundred meters from the walls of the educational institution.
At any price
At the headquarters, the commander sets the task of nullifying the terrorist offensive at any cost. At nightfall, elite units of the Syrian army and units of the Lebanese Hezbollah movement are sent to the academy. A fierce battle ensues. In the direction of the militants, everything is flying from machine-gun bullets to 130-millimeter shells and rockets.
The front begins to cool down only late at night. The terrorists, suffering heavy losses, fled towards their outpost in the 1070 quarter and the army went on the offensive, returning almost all the lost positions with the exception of the extreme line of residential development in the Al-Assad quarter.
In one day of the offensive, government forces managed to eliminate about 500 militants, almost a thousand were wounded. There were also losses from the Syrian army and militia. During the day, more than 80 civilians were killed by terrorist missiles and hundreds were hospitalized with injuries.
The leaders of Jabhat al-Nusra had been preparing the offensive for more than one day or even a week. Recruiters in the eastern quarters, after a common prayer in mosques, urged citizens not to listen to the calls of the authorities and promised in the coming days to break the blockade and reopen the way to Idlib, the capital of the terrorist group.
At the same time, military intelligence reported to headquarters that the terrorists had received a large batch of GRAD missiles from Turkey and were preparing dozens of tanks not only on the southern front, but also in the north of Aleppo, in the area of the Castello route. Thanks to the operational work of the Syrian aviation, it was possible to destroy part of the trucks with missiles and armored vehicles. Despite this, the terrorists were able to save a lot of ammunition for organizing the offensive.
The Syrian headquarters understands that today's attack was not the last. Despite the heavy losses, the militants will again try to break through the encirclement. This proves the presence in the southwest and northwest of up to 16 thousand militants, assembled from 15 different radical groups under the leadership of Jabhat al-Nusra.
Russia is ready to extend the humanitarian pause in Aleppo as much as possible. This was announced on Thursday, October 20, by Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to him, the pause in air strikes will last "until we are faced with the activation of the bandit formations that have settled in Aleppo."
“We hope that our partners, primarily American ones, will do everything that they have promised so far, to separate the Dzhebhat al-Nusra terrorists * and others like them, the same terrorist organizations, from the so-called healthy part of the opposition, so that it was clear to us how we can continue our joint work together, "the head of the Russian state emphasized.
Recall: on Tuesday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that on October 18, Russian and Syrian aviation stopped striking in the Aleppo area ahead of schedule. The humanitarian pause will allow the representatives of the UN and the Syrian Red Crescent Society to withdraw the sick and wounded from the city, as well as part of the civilian population. Eight corridors are provided for the exit from Aleppo, two of them are for the exit of members of the armed formations (of course, without weapons).
However, radical militants are in no hurry to use the corridors. On the morning of 20 October, Jabhat al-Nusra snipers opened intense targeted fire on evacuating residents of eastern Aleppo. As reported by the Al Mayadeen TV channel, the extremists tried to prevent the exit of the civilian population and the militants who decided to take advantage of the amnesty. For its part, the Syrian army does not respond to provocations and adheres to the ceasefire.
The West supports the humanitarian pause. As the official representative of the UN Secretary General Stefan Dujarrik said, the introduction of "any pause is welcomed by the UN and the people of Aleppo." In addition, in a strange way, the Syrian settlement became one of the topics of the Normandy Four meeting in Berlin. The strangeness lies in the fact that neither German Chancellor Angela Merkel nor French President Francois Hollande have any particular influence on the situation in Syria, and only two parties - Russia and the United States - can seriously negotiate.
A reasonable question arises: why are we playing along with the West? Why did they interrupt the storming of Aleppo with a humanitarian pause, and now announced their readiness to extend it? The same USA did not announce pauses when they bombed Yugoslavia, when they smashed Saddam Hussein's troops in Iraq or carried out intervention in Libya.
Moreover, one must understand: we are declaring a pause in a situation when it is worth pushing a little - and the Syrian army can take Aleppo. As the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung notes, the United States no longer has the resources to succeed in Aleppo. US-backed militants are not well-armed to counter the Syrian military and the Russian Aerospace Forces, and Washington is hesitant to intervene again.
On the other hand, the German newspaper notes, the future of Syria depends on the outcome of the battles for Aleppo. If the regime of President Bashar al-Assad regains control of this city, it will greatly strengthen the position of Damascus.
Why, in this situation, are we actually playing into the hands of the United States?
Serious political battles are now going on around Syria, - said Sergei Ermakov, deputy director of the Tavrichesky Information and Analytical Center of RISS. - In these battles, Syria is tightly linked with Ukraine: it is in these two regions that the United States and the Russian Federation have a sphere of common interests, and it creates the preconditions for exchange. Indeed, for the United States, the Middle East is of much greater interest than the "independent" one. On the contrary, Russia is more interested in Ukraine.
This does not mean that Washington and Moscow are ready right now to make concessions to each other and agree to an exchange. It would be too easy. But it is precisely around the terms of exchange that a serious struggle is going on today - both at the diplomatic and military levels. Now, in my opinion, the parties are concentrating their forces in order, if not to give a general battle, then at least to get a visible military advantage.
Let me remind you that on October 15 a group of ships from the Russian Northern Fleet left Severomorsk. It includes the heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser "Admiral Kuznetsov", the heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser "Peter the Great", large anti-submarine ships"Severomorsk" and "Vice-Admiral Kulakov", as well as support vessels. The group will cross the English Channel towards Gibraltar and further into the Mediterranean Sea towards Syria.
This step by Russia serves as a counterargument to those politicians in the West who demand the introduction of a no-fly zone over Syria, backed up by the threat of launching missiles from ships of the international coalition in the Mediterranean. The deployment of the strike group of the Russian Navy raises the stakes in this game.
But the United States also needs a victory in Syria. Therefore, the Americans concentrated on the capture of Iraqi Mosul. In fact, the seizure of Aleppo and Mosul is based on the exchange of interests and the delimitation of spheres of influence in the Middle East along the Russia-US line.
"SP": - How is this exchange linked to Ukraine?
Merkel and Hollande, right up to the last meeting of the Normandy Four, very harshly criticized Russia for its actions in Syria. This demonstrated that the FRG and France are decisively moving in the wake of the United States. And at the meeting of the Quartet in Berlin, the German and French leaders acted as representatives of the collective West, led by the United States. That is why the Quartet discussed the issue of a Syrian settlement, and in conjunction with Ukraine.
Outwardly, the situation does not seem to be changing. But in reality, the members of the Quartet are preparing negotiating positions in the event of a change in the situation on the ground. More precisely, in case of news that one of the opposing sides won a decisive military victory, and thereby changed the current - stalemate - diplomatic alignment.
"SP": - Why are we declaring a humanitarian pause in such a situation?
We show that we play by the rules and comply with the provisions of international military law - we provide corridors for the exit from the besieged city. In addition, we give ourselves a propaganda trump card: we get the opportunity to say that we are fighting terrorists, not civilians.
On the other hand, I do not rule out that we need a pause in order to regroup our forces and gain a military advantage. Such a pause will ultimately reduce combat losses the Syrian army.
"SP": - How will the situation develop after the international coalition led by the United States takes Mosul, and the Syrian army, with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces - Aleppo?
I think the division of Syria into zones of influence will begin. And here all the positions that the sides managed to win back will be taken into account. Ukraine in this situation will serve as a bargaining chip for the Americans. If something in the Syrian section, according to the United States, goes wrong, the Americans can always raise tensions in the Donbass. Or, in case of concessions on the part of Moscow, this tension can be somewhat reduced.
Regulation of the level of tension will also be carried out by political methods. For example, additional bargaining around the possible deployment of an OSCE police mission in Donbass, and the conditions under which Kiev can accept this mission ...
The combat pause in Aleppo has a certain practical meaning, - said Mikhail Alexandrov, a leading expert at the Center for Military-Political Research at MGIMO. - According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the militants who have laid down their arms are leaving the conflict zone along the corridors. This outcome greatly facilitates the subsequent assault. The more militants leave, the less effort will have to be spent on the capture of Aleppo. This means that the losses of the Syrian government army will be less, and there will be fewer casualties among the civilian population - they cannot be avoided during the conduct of hostilities.
Aleppo is now a fortified area: in the conditions of the city it is always difficult to conduct hostilities, and they are always associated with heavy losses. Therefore, it is wiser to let the militants leave in order to finish them off in more convenient place- for example, in remote areas of the country.
The pause can be kept as long as the militants leave the city. Well, or until the moment when they begin to concentrate forces in another place to strike.
"SP": - Why did the situation in Aleppo become the subject of conversation of the "Normandy Four"?
In my opinion, Barack Obama has completely lost his personal contact with Vladimir Putin. Perhaps that is why he instructed Hollande and Merkel to take over not only negotiations on the Minsk process, but also on the Syrian problem.
On the other hand, there is still a strong illusion in the Russian elite that we can tear Western Europe away from the United States by playing on the contradictions between Brussels and Washington. In fact, this is a failed line. It was justified in the 1930s - in an era of disunity. Western Europe... But today we are dealing with a single Western civilization, rallied under the auspices of the United States, and there are simply no global geopolitical contradictions between its members.
Nevertheless, the Kremlin has not abandoned the idea of splitting the West, and the proof of this is the attempt in Berlin to talk with the Europeans about Syria.
"SP": - Will the United States really focus on the capture of Mosul, and will not put a spoke in our wheels in Aleppo?
The capture of Mosul is a grandiose show that the Americans are now putting on. In fact, the Islamic State ** subdivisions, entrenched in Mosul, operate in close coordination with the United States.
Now the moment has come when these units are needed in Syria. If militants from Mosul leave the city for no apparent reason and go to Syria, it will look very strange. Therefore, the reason will be - the theatrical operation to take Mosul, which is presented by the American media as the impending complete defeat of the "Islamic State" by almighty America. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Americans are trivial to pay the militants from Mosul to leave the city and strike at Assad's troops in the right place.
The Russian Defense Ministry has already warned that it will bomb the columns of militants leaving Mosul. But, rather, the terrorists will begin to leave in small groups, under the cover of darkness. And it will be very problematic to destroy them.
In fact, the United States is preparing a large-scale operation aimed at continuing the war in Syria. Therefore, our task is to take Aleppo as soon as possible and transfer the released forces to the area where the militants from Iraq will come.
In this sense, the humanitarian pause only ties our hands. But the question rests on the price that the Syrian army is ready to pay for the storming of Aleppo. Assad's army lacks people, and its combat capability is at a rather low level. Apparently, Assad does not want unnecessary losses, and this has to be reckoned with.
* The Dzhebhat al-Nusra group was recognized as a terrorist organization by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014, its activities on the territory of Russia are prohibited.
** “Islamic State” (IS, ISIS) was recognized as a terrorist organization by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014, its activities on the territory of Russia are prohibited.
The post of such a readable blogger that the repost could not have been done. But reading, I suddenly caught myself thinking that how much strong emotions experienced by our grandmothers during the Second World War !!! Now you read about a foreign country, where our army is helping, you worry, you think - you would rather celebrate the Victory.
But what about our grandmothers, listening only to the radio ... How great was the desire for positive news, because it was not only on our land that there were battles, but it also depended on Victory when their husbands and brothers would return, and whether they would have time to return alive ... Mine grandmothers, being quite girls, with small children in their arms, did not wait for their husbands from the war.
But it was even more terrible to wait in the occupation, when there was no news, but only the belief that we would win ...
Original taken from colonelcassad
to the Storming of Aleppo. 30.09.2016
During September 30, the SAA, with the support of the Shiite militia and the Russian Aerospace Forces, continued to push the militants in various districts of Aleppo, slowly recapturing the city's territory from the militant units controlled by Al-Nusra. 
In the north, the army finally cleared the area of the Khandarat camp and completely captured the positions of the militants in the area of the Al-Kindi hospital. Now the army will have to take the ruins of the industrial area of Al-Shakeif and the height north of the junction leading to the dense residential development of northern Aleppo. It is not excluded that in the battles south of the indsutrial zone, the Kurds from the Sheikh Maksud quarter will try to expand their zone of control, as they already did during the battles for the Bani Zeid quarter and the Kastello highway.
Re-capture of Handarat.
In the central areas of the city - the Citadel of Aleppo and Old city- the army continued to occupy the central quarters north of the Citadel. Here the intermediate goal is to occupy the quarters of Jibb Karaman, Ad-Dudu, Hamza Bey, Jubeyla and Al-Safsah, to reach the main communication route of the militants inside Aleppo, along which the forces are maneuvering inside the boiler. The physical interception of this route, as well as the bombing of secondary roads in the eastern part of the cauldron, will make it possible to operatively dissect the Al-Nusra grouping in two parts and digest it in parts. It is possible that as the militants accumulate forces in the central regions of Aleppo to hold the central quarters, a strike from the Aleppo airport may follow in order to threaten this road from the east. It is also worth noting the advancement of the CAA in the area of the power station junction in central Aleppo, southeast of the Sheikh Maksud quarter.
Fight in old Aleppo.
Street fighting in the Bastan Al Pasha quarter.
Armored vehicles of the Republican Guard in the central districts of Aleppo.
In southern Aleppo, the army continues to try to expand its zone of control in the Sheikh Said quarter and wedged into the Al Ameria quarter, moving closer to taking control of the road south of Sheikh Said to Ramuseh. Control over it will allow more freedom to maneuver forces in further offensive operations in the south of the city.
In general, the storming of Aleppo has already firmly entered the stage of gnawing through the defenses of the militants in stubborn street battles. Every day, the territory controlled by the militants is slowly but surely shrinking. The intensity of the battle will also lead to the depletion of ammunition for the militants' heavy weapons and an increase in problems with ammunition in a number of sectors. Oncoming battles with counter-attacks by militants are more likely to be beneficial for the SAA, since they allow them to more actively grind militants in an open battle, and not pick them out of basements and underground communications. At the same time, it is worth noting that the morale of the core of the defending Islamists is quite high and they do not show any particular tendencies to surrender, so this will still have to be worked out. Here, in turn, it is worth noting that over the past year, the Syrian army has repeatedly shown how it can win in such exhausting and bloody confrontations with the help of its allies.
PS. The title screenshot shows 4 Russian Su-24 bombers near the Khmeimim airbase.
Bashar al-Assad officially announced that his country is withdrawing from the truce, which somehow lasted only a week
After the failure of the ceasefire, the United States withdrew from Syria, and the Russian Federation is actively helping to finish off the rebels
The Syrian war, due to the abundance of participants in the confrontation, has long been going on several storylines... The main ones, of course, are two: the whole world against the Islamic State and the regime of Bashar al-Assad against the rebels.
In the first story a few days ago: soon IS will either disappear altogether or become much stronger than it is now. It so happened that almost immediately the course of events dramatically accelerated in the second confrontation.
The ceasefire, concluded just over a week ago with the mediation of the United States and Russia, prematurely ordered a long life. The American airstrike on the Syrian troops and the Syrian-Russian air strike on the UN humanitarian convoy left no chances for the continuation of the ceasefire.
Bashar al-Assad has officially announced that his country is withdrawing from the truce, which somehow lasted only a week. The next day, the General Staff of Syria announced the start of an operation to "liberate from terrorists" the eastern part of Aleppo.
All that remains of a UN humanitarian convoy after the airstrike
For two days and two nights, the city's quarters held by the rebels have been subjected to massive artillery shelling and airstrikes. The death toll during this time alone has gone into the hundreds. The government army claims that those killed are militants. The rebels, of course, assure that bombs and shells fly only into those houses where ordinary unarmed citizens live.
The ground offensive has not yet begun, the aviation-artillery preparation, apparently, will continue for some time, after which tanks and infantry, gathered in key areas and rested during the armistice, will be used.
Judging by the creepy footage from Aleppo, it is planned to take this city according to the same scheme as Grozny did in its time. First - the complete destruction of all buildings using all types of weapons, including incendiary and cluster bombs, etching out the remnants of the civilian population, and then - a ground attack.
If in the air the first part of the plan is carried out by Russian aviation, then on the ground not only government troops are waiting for their turn, but also units of the Lebanese Hezbollah with Iranian officers and instructors. The offensive promises to be really massive.
However, thousands of insurgents entrenched in Aleppo are bragging, declaring that they are not going to retreat or surrender, and are ready to arrange a bloodbath for the attackers. The battle will surely be very hard. However, with all due respect to the fighting qualities of Assad's opponents, they do not have too many chances against aviation using thermobaric, for example, bombs. With a high probability, the city will be taken sooner or later.
Restoring government control over Aleppo would effectively eliminate the chances of the rebellion's success. Not a single large population center will remain under the control of Assad's opponents, and the territory under their control will be limited to the mountainous and wooded areas of the northwestern province of Idlib, and a scattering of villages in the desert of the southern province of Daraa. This does not in any way attract a "national revolution".
Equally important is the attitude of the world community (primarily the United States and the Russian Federation) to the events taking place in Aleppo.
Restoring government control over Aleppo will effectively eliminate the chances of the rebellion's success.
Until recently, Barack Obama intended to save his presidential legacy from failure in Syria, having sent his Secretary of State John Kerry to do everything possible to "freeze" the conflict at least until January 20 - the day of the inauguration of the new owner (or mistress) of the White House. If the plan succeeded, then Obama could then say that he achieved some kind of peace in Syria, and what is next there is no longer his concern and competence.
The success of this plan largely depended on the goodwill of Moscow, which has all the levers of influence over Bashar al-Assad. John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov even seemed to agree on the terms of a ceasefire, but the Kremlin apparently wanted to get something for its support that Obama was not ready to give.
Moreover, Vladimir Putin has a completely different approach to the Syrian war. He is not going to get off the throne, he does not need to report to the voters, the bloodshed does not bother him at all. Moreover, he is going to make full use of the period of the transition of power in the United States, when the outgoing president refrains from sudden movements, and the incoming president has not even entered the course of affairs. Now is the perfect time for Putin to bleed Aleppo, but still take the city, ending the organized uprising.
Barack Obama, realizing the death of a barely born truce, withdrew from solving the Syrian problems. His final speech at the UN General Assembly was devoted to the nuclear deal with Iran, the normalization of relations with Cuba, the democratization of Myanmar, and the Paris climate agreement. But not Syria, which he mentioned in passing only in the context of the need to help the disadvantaged. It seems that the outgoing US president in recent months in this post, if he remembers Syria, is only in the context of the fight against the Islamic State. Relations between Assad and the rebels are "toxic" for him, now it is easier to leave them out of brackets (like, for example, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict) than to get in there, risking some unpleasant surprise.
The confrontation between Assad and the rebels will not be in the focus of the American foreign policy agenda until the new president of the United States is sworn in. The further course of hostilities will largely depend on this person's name. If Donald Trump is actually ready to give Syria at the mercy of Putin and Assad, then Hillary Clinton intends to give them a tough rebuff, up to the introduction of a "no-fly zone" over the territories of the rebels.
With Clinton's chances of winning so much better than Trump's, it is imperative for Moscow and Damascus to stifle the uprising before her very likely entry into the White House. Ideally, from their point of view, by January the situation should be as follows: control over Aleppo has been restored, the regime in Damascus has strengthened, the remnants of the rebels are driven into the mountains and marginalized. There remains, however, the IS problem, to the solution of which the United States will be invited on an “equal basis”.
For Clinton herself, who considers herself an excellent diplomat and incredibly experienced strategist, it would also be desirable to start her presidential term not with a war against Russia, but with the elimination of the Islamic State and the establishment of peace in Syria. Numerous calls for "decisive action" to prevent Assad from winning the civil war are unlikely to be heeded. In her book Tough Decisions, Clinton has repeatedly explained that in order to achieve global goals, sometimes it is necessary to sacrifice the interests of small countries and social groups... Actually, its "reset" of relations with Russia in 2008 (immediately after the war in Georgia) is just one of this series.
On July 28, the Syrian army announced the complete encirclement of eastern Aleppo. The "road of life" along which the supply of the militants was carried out was cut. How long will the "opposition" units resist and what the Syrian army will do with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces is not an idle question. The capture of Aleppo is not only strategic, but also has a symbolic meaning.
Aleppo history
Aleppo in the recent past was the largest industrial and commercial Syrian city, today it has actually become a symbol of resistance against President Bashar al-Assad. The inhabitants of this industrial capital have always treated Damascus with hostility, the origins of these relations lie in the sphere of religious contradictions between Sunni businessmen and the Alawite political elite.
Video of what Aleppo looked like before the start of the fight for freedom
These contradictions began to intensify after thousands of peasants began to leave their lands as a result of Turkey's implementation of the GAP project (Guney Anadolu Projesi - a series of dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers). Thousands of peasants actually fled from their homes to big cities, because of what to lead Agriculture became impossible due to lack of water. Aleppo was the closest and most favorable place for this, however - the Aleppo authorities were unable to provide any acceptable social conditions for newly arrived residents.
As a result of such forced migration, the same thing happened as with the largest eastern metropolitan areas of Mumbai, Cairo, Tehran - the city was divided into two socially unequal parts, the western part with villas, shopping centers and slums in the eastern part. This is what determines the fact that the militants are tightly entrenched in the eastern part - the support of the population.
With the tacit consent of the Aleppo authorities, previously in the eastern part, new mosques built with the money of Saudi and Qatari sponsors became the main new infrastructure facilities. Reading and writing lessons were held in mosques, alms were given, and grants were given for education. They carried out appropriate propaganda, the result of which was that the eastern part became the hotbed of tension, the inhabitants of which hated their prosperous neighbors for the alien secular way of life.
Turkey also at one time had a significant impact on the situation, the armed "opposition" units, establishing a direct corridor from its borders to the eastern regions along the Aleppo-Gaziantep broadband road laid back in 2005. As a result, goods from Turkey to Aleppo were delivered faster than from Damascus and Latakia, and were much cheaper. It was along this corridor that material support was carried out, the transfer of weapons, fresh forces for the militants to Syria from Turkey.
Aleppo today
Russian influence in Syria
Since October 2015, with the active participation of the Russian Aerospace Forces, the areas occupied by the opposition have turned into ruins. More than half of Aleppo's residents left the city, depending on their capabilities and beliefs, to Turkey, Europe, as well as to the quieter regions of Syria - the provinces of Latakia and Tartus. To date, out of 2.5 million inhabitants, according to various estimates, no more than 400 thousand remain in the city at present, more than half of whom are armed and support the "oppositionists".
The failed coup in Turkey and the sharp turn towards Russia had a significant impact on the change in the situation. The result was the disappearance from the theater of war. a large number Turkish "vacationers". Previously, the supply, financing and armament of the eastern quarters came from Turkey and through Turkey regularly and constantly, now, according to reports from various sources, it comes very irregularly.
It is worth noting that the difficulties of the Greens began in February 2016, when Iranian volunteers, Kurds from the Afrin canton and Syrian troops, with the support of our Aerospace Forces, managed to block the so-called Azaz corridor - stretching from the Turkish Kilis, a strip of land 30 to 6 km wide (in the narrowest place) all the way to Aleppo. Then, the most convenient supply route for the militants along the Aleppo-Gaziantep highway was blocked. Recently, the last route from the Turkish province of Hatay to the east along the Kastello road was blocked.
Now let's get to the fun part. The complete blockade of the eastern part of the region only at first glance seems to be the beginning of a terrible end to the Aleppo uprising that has thundered all over the world.
If you look at the Syrian map of military operations: the districts and suburbs of Damascus - Jobar, South and East Ghouta, the Yarmouk camp, Zabadani, Madaya, Daraya have been completely surrounded for 4 years now, which does not prevent them from fighting and thinking about the density of the blockade being carried out.
For example civil war in Donbass, we could observe that a mass of people successfully live around the military conflict, who have their dividends from this, from elementary trade and the sale of free humanitarian aid to the supply of weapons in both directions.
Two ways to take Aleppo
There are two ways to solve the problem with the resulting boiler in Aleppo. The first, a frontal assault, was tested (in 2015) by Iranian volunteers from the IRGC. On the first day of the operation, they suffered significant losses and abandoned this venture. Modern combat in a dense urban environment allows the defenders to transform houses and streets into different technical means remote control into a deadly labyrinth where heavy equipment is practically useless, in such conditions an assault is a rather unpromising and rather costly exercise.
Remember the Donetsk airport and its cyborgs, on the other hand, the attempts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to attack in the Donbass agglomerations, each time the losses for the Ukrainian army were not comparable to the losses of the defenders of Donbass.
The second, the method that was used in Iraqi Fallujah, by the Americans. The method consisted in the following - all civilians of the city were invited to specially equipped camps - they were given three days to evacuate them. At the end of the allotted time, the remaining residents of the area (who could be detained by force) were declared terrorists. Then the terrain was subjected to massive bomb attacks from aircraft. After that, the remnants of the buildings were leveled with special equipment.
A similar tactic is now being used in the city of Manbiz, besieged by Kurdish-American troops. Technically, this option looks simpler.
Assault as an important marker
The decision to storm Aleppo will be the marker of the one who rules the show in the Middle East. Who is to set the rules of the game. At the moment, Vladimir Vladimirovich is leading in this game outright. Of course, the Americans will not give up their positions so easily, unlike Turkey, which actually refused to support, this can be seen from the fact that Aleppo is surrounded, the supply is stopped.
A successful assault can only be carried out with the support of the Aerospace Forces, so Russia will put pressure on Assad in resolving the Kurdish issue and further pushing its interests in Syria. The solution of the issue with the help of a bomb strike, in addition, will mean that Russia has concluded a kind of agreement on the Middle East with the United States, or that it does not, in principle, look back at the United States, which is unlikely.
It is unlikely that Russia acts without certain agreements with Washington. The destruction of the boiler in Aleppo with the help of the Aerospace Forces is quite simple to carry out, moreover, without losses for the attackers, the only thing that threatens is the reaction of "human rights defenders" and the world community, which will certainly testify to violations of human rights. They will make a fiend of hell out of Russia and the meldonium scandal will turn out to be just a slight background noise in the world press.
If we try to forecast a little, then we see that Russia is preparing to follow the latter path. Several important markers indicate this.
- On July 28, immediately after the encirclement of Aleppo, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made a statement on the start of a large-scale humanitarian operation.
- Aleppo created three humanitarian corridor, according to which everyone is invited to leave the rebellious quarters.
- Assad announced general amnesty, I want to emphasize about universal.
- Armed militants are promised an unhindered exit from the city. The case is unprecedented. Those who wished to lay down their arms and civilians - filtration camps with food and medicine.
- Today DAISH (a banned organization in Russia) has declared a jihad on Russia.
The reaction of press secretary Dmitry Peskov to the fact that preparations for the assault are underway is interesting:
“Have you heard anywhere that this is preparation for the assault? You haven't heard. This is a preparation for a humanitarian operation. There is no reason to doubt this "
In general - no one doubts that the city will have to be taken one way or another.
The second option, which the Americans use without regard to public opinion, will show that Vladimir Vladimirovich recognizes America as a "Great Power and a powerful country", but Russia is protecting its interests in the world not only at its borders, as in the case of Donbass. From diplomatic maneuvers and the appearance of an analogue of Jennifer Psaki - Maria Zakharova in our Foreign Ministry, to the use of the army, where Russia considers it necessary, and not where indicated.
In the event of an operation of this magnitude in Syria, the Ukrainian authorities will have to think ten times before giving the command to storm the Donbass.
An assault with the use of the Aerospace Forces would mean that Assad agreed to the conditions put forward by Russia, at least on the Kurdish issue. But no less important, the rest of the players who tried to implement their plans with regard to Syria - Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel - will receive a clear signal who sets the rules of the game in the Middle East.